CranberryWX Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Already some clearing here in Suitland. Looks like we have at least partly sunny conditions back to west central WV. Yes on the sun in Western WV. After the batch of rain showers came through this morning, it quickly cleared up. Just a few clouds right now and some fresh moisture to bake off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Anecdotal, but the Nashville tornado in 1998 that occurred in mid-afternoon was preceded that morning by heavy rain. It cleared for a bit at midday, but even then, not a ton of sun.* *Not saying that will happen today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 It actually happens in a number of bigger events... April 27 in Alabama! I see some sun already. Yes...The May 1985 major tornado outbreak in OH & PA started off rainy, damp and rather cool in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 10, 2012 Author Share Posted August 10, 2012 Storms to the west are breaking up quickly just as the models indicated. Clouds are clearing nicely... I think an area of 2000+ J/kg CAPE is likely this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormDude81 Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 I have no idea why the SPC doesn't have the 2% tornado risk down into northern MD (or even further to the southeast?). I guess they don't anticipate any significant rotation in both the main line and whatever pre-frontal stuff that might pop up. The tornado risk seems to be a bit too north, i would put a large 2% for NY/PA/MD/N VA, and a small 5% over West-Central PA southeast of the low, i am watching East OH for some low topped supercell formation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Yes...The May 1985 major tornado outbreak in OH & PA started off rainy, damp and rather cool in the morning. I remember Mike Smith mentioning it specifically when we met him in 2011 in Kansas. I think he noted some studies on it. I'm not sure all the details but intuitively it at least adds to sfc moisture as well as potentially laying down boundaries etc for later activity which are often helpful in tornado formation. Not that any of that is terribly applicable to today ... tho I do feel SPC is underplaying the risk further south than they show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 One problem further north is the models show very little instability up there. N MD into S PA -- maybe the whole area -- looks as good as anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Sun here in Colesville, MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Still feeling kind of "meh" about the whole thing right now, willing to chase today but taking a wait and see approach to see how things clear out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Still feeling kind of "meh" about the whole thing right now, willing to chase today but taking a wait and see approach to see how things clear out. You are always meh take a gamble, I have been meh the past 4 or 5 events, but with modest instability it could be decent, risk it for the biscuit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 I remember Mike Smith mentioning it specifically when we met him in 2011 in Kansas. I think he noted some studies on it. I'm not sure all the details but intuitively it at least adds to sfc moisture as well as potentially laying down boundaries etc for later activity which are often helpful in tornado formation. Not that any of that is terribly applicable to today ... tho I do feel SPC is underplaying the risk further south than they show. Yeah, I was just giving another example I was familiar with...not indicating the same conditions are possible today. I was in the middle of that outbreak near Niles, OH...pretty close to the F-5 that came through there. The way that day started out you never would have thought that it was going to end as a tragic day for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 You are always meh take a gamble, I have been meh the past 4 or 5 events, but with modest instability it could be decent, risk it for the biscuit. I'm spoiled, I was born in Oklahoma... But your right, if it clears out any I might just bite the bullet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Yeah, I was just giving another example I was familiar with...not indicating the same conditions are possible today. I was in the middle of that outbreak near Niles, OH...pretty close to the F-5 that came through there. The way that day started out you never would have thought that it was going to end as a tragic day for many. Yeah, wasn't trying to say you meant anything. Just given the talk wanted to throw it out there. I think there are a good number of bigger tornado days like that in several places. I'd love to see a 1985 event again.. seems hard to believe it could even happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 It was warmer at midnight at my house than it is right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 It actually happens in a number of bigger events... April 27 in Alabama! I see some sun already. Springfield ma tor last year had intense lightning at my house at like 6am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Sprinkling in Manassas!!! We still have time but looks very limited when I look to the West and see little crack in cloud clover...We all know anything can be possible but at this moment I am a little sad!!!! Had a break in the clouds early and only lasted 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Step back from the ledge. Plenty of time and lots of storms to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Sprinkling in Manassas!!! We still have time but looks very limited when I look to the West and see little crack in cloud clover...We all know anything can be possible but at this moment I am a little sad!!!! Had a break in the clouds early and only lasted 30 minutes. Look at satellite - there is still a pocket to the west with lots of breaks. We will see if that can work in or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Yeah, I was just giving another example I was familiar with...not indicating the same conditions are possible today. I was in the middle of that outbreak near Niles, OH...pretty close to the F-5 that came through there. The way that day started out you never would have thought that it was going to end as a tragic day for many. That's the one that jumped over to Wheatland, PA and leveled the town. PA's only recorded F-5 tornado. I was just golfing there at Oak Tree around July 4. I was living in Beaver Falls, PA at the time and we had an F-3 tear down a Jamesway shopping plaza. That one twister killed 9 and injured 120. But you are right how odd that day was. Our family was going out for an evening walk cause it was so nice and calm that evening. Those storms flared up quickly. That was the event that got me interested in weather. Not to take up space on this post with 5/31 but will throw these out if you've never seen them... http://www.may311985tornadoes.com/ http://www.pahighway...1tornadoes.html Very interesting to read the 2nd link just to see how improved technology and communication are today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Trying to break up here but temp is still stuck @ 78. I'm not too worried. Plenty of other factors in play today so focusing on sun and temps isn't as necessary as it has been recently. Lotsa energy out west. My guess would be a couple of spokes producing some good stuff regardless of surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 The metro areas could actually be in great spots to see the best of todays storms. Seems to be more cloudiness the further north you go and to our south the shear drops off with every couple miles. In the middle we have instability and shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Sprinkling in Manassas!!! We still have time but looks very limited when I look to the West and see little crack in cloud clover...We all know anything can be possible but at this moment I am a little sad!!!! Had a break in the clouds early and only lasted 30 minutes. Its 11:40... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 DC and west is recouping nicely. Sfc and MU cape look fine for this time if day. If nothing else I think the am stuff didnt kill us. Effective shear is marginal but already there over the west and will increase thru afternoon. On phone so not much else for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Getting much brighter and I see patches of blue sky poking through in PG county.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 75F at noon. The rest of you can keep your severe wx, I'd happily take the rest of the day like this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Will see. whats he see? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Man the 1630z outlook is pretty much unchanged...still pretty marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Man the 1630z outlook is pretty much unchanged...still pretty marginal. No reason to be changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Man the 1630z outlook is pretty much unchanged...still pretty marginal. Yup... think damaging wind gusts will be the main threat... outside chances of large hail (quarter size)... and maybe a very small chance of a weak spinup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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