Ian Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 woo rain. radar doesn't look too amazing for svr today.. not much spacing between rounds. but it's early i suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 10, 2012 Author Share Posted August 10, 2012 woo rain. radar doesn't look too amazing for svr today.. not much spacing between rounds. but it's early i suppose. Haven't looked at too much this morning, but hi-res models have that back line dying off, letting a new one form this afternoon with more spacing. RAP and HRRR suggest a narrow corridor of 1500-2000+ J/kg CAPE up through north-central MD into far south-central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Haven't looked at too much this morning, but hi-res models have that back line dying off, letting a new one form this afternoon with more spacing. RAP and HRRR suggest a narrow corridor of 1500-2000+ J/kg CAPE up through north-central MD into far south-central PA. SREF still looks OK if not magical. I'd still be sleeping if I didn't have to tweet about rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 SREF still looks OK if not magical. I'd still be sleeping if I didn't have to tweet about rain. It's fun to be up so early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Line of rain showers approaching this morning and residual clouds will probably kill chances of severe in my part of WV this afternoon. We need the rain though....been getting missed lately by the storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 I don't know what I am impressed with more - traffic not being terrible in the rain, or Ian up and posting at 630am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Mark/Ian - are you guys still going chasing today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Tornado warning at work. Sirens are going off. Looks like it must be from the cell down near La Plata. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 10, 2012 Author Share Posted August 10, 2012 Mark/Ian - are you guys still going chasing today? Planning on it, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Tornado warning at work. Sirens are going off. Looks like it must be from the cell down near La Plata. I see no warnings.....or anything that would warrant it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Tornado warning at work. Sirens are going off. Looks like it must be from the cell down near La Plata. Are you sure its not a fire drill? Planning on it, yes. Oh... hope where ever you are going has better chances than around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Tornado warning at work. Sirens are going off. Looks like it must be from the cell down near La Plata. Left the office and went down to the first floor. Five minutes later... Tornado warning cancelled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Line out and up the bay looks nice for 8am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Are you sure its not a fire drill? At work we get weather warnings that pop up on our computers - things like STWs, lightning within X miles, etc. Plus, building management made the announcement about the warning. I checked the radar, but didn't see anything of interest (took a shot in the dark on the La Plata cell), though I still went downstairs just in case. I'm guessing (just guessing) one of the mets in my organization made a call for the warning that then got shot down a few minutes later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 10, 2012 Author Share Posted August 10, 2012 Oh... hope where ever you are going has better chances than around here My primary target if Frederick to Gettysburg, but if stuff can get strong early enough it might be worth heading west to the I-81 corridor between Hagerstown and Chambersburg. I don't like the west option much because that means going through the mountains to follow the storms east, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Really worried about the cloud cover today. There looks to be possible clearing later but that is still uncertain and if there is, how much?? Keeping the fingers crossed for the sun! The old saying is " If we get sun then were under the gun" lol!! " if we get no sun then there will be no fun"! Just trying to have a little fun and hope the good stuff holds off until I finish work today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Already some clearing here in Suitland. Looks like we have at least partly sunny conditions back to west central WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 FYI - 13z SPC outlook pretty much the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 The Cambridge area is just getting crushed right now with rain. Not a great morning for pictures at Blackwater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 I've noticed some of the stronger northeast severe days likes to coincide with heavy rain early morning. I'm not really sure why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 I've noticed some of the stronger northeast severe days likes to coincide with heavy rain early morning. I'm not really sure why. One of our big days (June 2008) came after a morning of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Visible showing some clearing to the west but it sure doesn't look like much. Tough day to be a forecaster I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 I've noticed some of the stronger northeast severe days likes to coincide with heavy rain early morning. I'm not really sure why. It actually happens in a number of bigger events... April 27 in Alabama! I see some sun already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Already some clearing here in Suitland. Looks like we have at least partly sunny conditions back to west central WV. Vis sat has some clearing in WVa and SW Va so if that rotates through in a couple hours we can still get some limited sun. edit: kenny ninja'd me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 It actually happens in a number of bigger events... April 27 in Alabama! I see some sun already. I seem to recall somebody a few years back saying that morning rainfall served to increase low level moisture. Obviously you'd need sun after the morning rain but am I recalling correctly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 I'm currently seeing full sun and blue skies. That was a surprise to wake up to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 10, 2012 Author Share Posted August 10, 2012 I have no idea why the SPC doesn't have the 2% tornado risk down into northern MD (or even further to the southeast?). I guess they don't anticipate any significant rotation in both the main line and whatever pre-frontal stuff that might pop up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Definitely brightening up in PG, and hopefully the satellite shots aren't lying to us with the clearing to the west. Get us some sun and we could destabilize nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 I have no idea why the SPC doesn't have the 2% tornado risk down into northern MD (or even further to the southeast?). I guess they don't anticipate any significant rotation in both the main line and whatever pre-frontal stuff that might pop up. I guess maybe they are waiting until 1630z to pull the trigger. But I'd still think there would be potential - I think we've seen more marginal events be given a 2% in our area before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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