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Friday (Aug 10) Severe Disc/Obs


Ellinwood

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I have no idea why the SPC doesn't have the 2% tornado risk down into northern MD (or even further to the southeast?). I guess they don't anticipate any significant rotation in both the main line and whatever pre-frontal stuff that might pop up.

The tornado risk seems to be a bit too north, i would put a large 2% for NY/PA/MD/N VA, and a small 5% over West-Central PA southeast of the low, i am watching East OH for some low topped supercell formation

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Yes...The May 1985 major tornado outbreak in OH & PA started off rainy, damp and rather cool in the morning.

I remember Mike Smith mentioning it specifically when we met him in 2011 in Kansas. I think he noted some studies on it. I'm not sure all the details but intuitively it at least adds to sfc moisture as well as potentially laying down boundaries etc for later activity which are often helpful in tornado formation. Not that any of that is terribly applicable to today ... tho I do feel SPC is underplaying the risk further south than they show.

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I remember Mike Smith mentioning it specifically when we met him in 2011 in Kansas. I think he noted some studies on it. I'm not sure all the details but intuitively it at least adds to sfc moisture as well as potentially laying down boundaries etc for later activity which are often helpful in tornado formation. Not that any of that is terribly applicable to today ... tho I do feel SPC is underplaying the risk further south than they show.

Yeah, I was just giving another example I was familiar with...not indicating the same conditions are possible today.

I was in the middle of that outbreak near Niles, OH...pretty close to the F-5 that came through there. The way that day started out you never would have thought that it was going to end as a tragic day for many.

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Yeah, I was just giving another example I was familiar with...not indicating the same conditions are possible today.

I was in the middle of that outbreak near Niles, OH...pretty close to the F-5 that came through there. The way that day started out you never would have thought that it was going to end as a tragic day for many.

Yeah, wasn't trying to say you meant anything. Just given the talk wanted to throw it out there. ;) I think there are a good number of bigger tornado days like that in several places. I'd love to see a 1985 event again.. seems hard to believe it could even happen.

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Sprinkling in Manassas!!! We still have time but looks very limited when I look to the West and see little crack in cloud clover...We all know anything can be possible but at this moment I am a little sad!!!! Had a break in the clouds early and only lasted 30 minutes.

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Sprinkling in Manassas!!! We still have time but looks very limited when I look to the West and see little crack in cloud clover...We all know anything can be possible but at this moment I am a little sad!!!! Had a break in the clouds early and only lasted 30 minutes.

Look at satellite - there is still a pocket to the west with lots of breaks. We will see if that can work in or not.

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Yeah, I was just giving another example I was familiar with...not indicating the same conditions are possible today.

I was in the middle of that outbreak near Niles, OH...pretty close to the F-5 that came through there. The way that day started out you never would have thought that it was going to end as a tragic day for many.

That's the one that jumped over to Wheatland, PA and leveled the town. PA's only recorded F-5 tornado. I was just golfing there at Oak Tree around July 4. I was living in Beaver Falls, PA at the time and we had an F-3 tear down a Jamesway shopping plaza. That one twister killed 9 and injured 120. :(

But you are right how odd that day was. Our family was going out for an evening walk cause it was so nice and calm that evening. Those storms flared up quickly. That was the event that got me interested in weather.

Not to take up space on this post with 5/31 but will throw these out if you've never seen them...

http://www.may311985tornadoes.com/

http://www.pahighway...1tornadoes.html

Very interesting to read the 2nd link just to see how improved technology and communication are today!

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Trying to break up here but temp is still stuck @ 78. I'm not too worried. Plenty of other factors in play today so focusing on sun and temps isn't as necessary as it has been recently. Lotsa energy out west. My guess would be a couple of spokes producing some good stuff regardless of surface temps.

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DC and west is recouping nicely. Sfc and MU cape look fine for this time if day. If nothing else I think the am stuff didnt kill us. Effective shear is marginal but already there over the west and will increase thru afternoon. On phone so not much else for now. ;)

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