12/19-12/20 threat

[friendwh]

Frustrating day, the only models that really matter were complete whiffs besides an inch out on the cape. Tough year, hopefully things change, or at least we get something around Xmas or the day after!

Really? Come on, let's have a little more intelligent conversation than this. the UK and Euro are not the only models that matter...maybe you should stop humping them so hard, or know that the UK and GGEM have been flipping like madmen - remember, it was the UK with a bomb and the GGEM out to sea not a few model runs ago...

[weathafella]

The GFS, NAM, RGEM, GGEM, and SREFs all have a decent s/w coming into CA (the GFS and NAM are probably the strongest and sharpest)

In the opposing camp where the s/w is much flatter we have the ECM, UKMET, and RUC

RUC agreement is a pure coincidence. It's pretty useless outside of 6 hours.

[ORH_wxman]

Congrats to Charlston, SC at 204 hours.

[Zeus]

We're getting nailed Sunday.

Nailed... screwed... who's keeping track?

[NJwinter23]

Yesterday's run.

To be more specific, its today run at 120hrs, followed by yesterdays run at 144hrs

[skierinvermont]

Yup, you nailed it. Just posted the same thing.

Unless the initial phase happens the s/w flies off the coast under the PV and we don't see a total phase until the thing is producing rain in Halifax.

I always like it when we all see the same details

[weathafella]

Congrats to Charlston, SC at 204 hours.

The Euro really has a hardon for us.....all I can say is one of these days we'll beat the limey bastard.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm gonna go out on a limb and call for an abrupt reemergence of that SW tmw when that SW is properly assimilated by the models...not calling for a KU, but I think there will be a significant event for at least ENE.

I noticed Ray has stopped posting.

Someone text him in an hour and make sure he has freed himself from the noose before it's too late.

See this is the sh** I was referring to with people often mischaracterizing my stance; I appreciate the running joke, but I'm not as consistently pessimistic as folks percieve me to be, but yea....when something blows, I'm gonna tell it like it is an take no prisioners with respect to my employment of bitter sarcasm.

[BostonWX]

Does it snow in New England anymiore?

[skierinvermont]

RUC agreement is a pure coincidence. It's pretty useless outside of 6 hours.

Hmm OK if that's the case cross that off.. I don't usually pay much attention to it. I just figured since it is an 18z run it is 6 hours newer data which is big given we're talking about a difference that emerges within 18-24 hours of 12z today.

[Cold Miser]

Haven't seen a snowfall of more than one inch since Feb 16.

I've got you beat with the massive 1.5 I got last month.

[free_man]

It isn't very comforting knowing that the two best models are misses.

Euro is pretty close to at least a coastal hit, right?    

[Zeus]

Does it snow in New England anymiore?

It's snowing right now!

Flurries are love.

[CT Rain]

See this is the sh** I was referring to with people often mischaracterizing my stance; I appreciate the running joke, but I'm not as consistently pessimistic as folks percieve me to be, but yea....when something blows, I'm gonna tell it like it is an take no prisioners with respect to my employment of bitter sarcasm.

lol it's a joke. I am the same way as you. When something sucks I say it sucks.

[ORH_wxman]

Euro is pretty close to at least a coastal hit, right?

Well it gives Phil 1-2" of snow, lol...but the meat of the storm is still pretty far offshore.

If it just has a bit of a sooner amplification in the southern stream via that Rockies s/w...then I think ti would be good. The northern stream is certainly allowing for plenty of room and leaving the door open...but the Euro refuses to walk through it so far.

[weathafella]

It's snowing right now!

Flurries are love.

Kind of a snizzly week...

[Mr Torchey]

Really? Come on, let's have a little more intelligent conversation than this. the UK and Euro are not the only models that matter...maybe you should stop humping them so hard, or know that the UK and GGEM have been flipping like madmen - remember, it was the UK with a bomb and the GGEM out to sea not a few model runs ago...

You know what you are correct. I am going to feel good about this now, the gfs which gave me two feet of snow at 12 and 18z yesterday, then did not give me a flake at 0z and 6z jumped back to giving me a 4-6 inch snow.........I feel good about that model. As for the GGEM I should jump on that ship, I think its a millimeter? ..........so a dusting, yet the operational does not agree with the ens mean.

I would prefer to agree with the Euro, its been pretty steady since Sunday, where other models are jumping all over the place. In a nina year, I would follow climo and think its harder to get a sw moving into the 4 corners region, which the Euro does not show.

Anything can and will happen, but right now I am certainly not jumping on the gfs because it shows snow.

[40/70 Benchmark]

lol it's a joke. I am the same way as you. When something sucks I say it sucks.

I understand that, but I honestly think it gets so engrained into the minds of some that they honestly believe it....I explicitly stated that I'm not tipping any chairs over that EURO run, though it doesn't make me feel comfy, obviously.

[moneypitmike]

It's our only hope and luckily..that's it's well known bias..and we've seen that happen this close to a big storm before on the Euro on several storms the last few years.

"You're our only hope Obi Wan......."

"

[weathafella]

You know what you are correct. I am going to feel good about this now, the gfs which gave me two feet of snow at 12 and 18z yesterday, then did not give me a flake at 0z and 6z jumped back to giving me a 4-6 inch snow.........I feel good about that model. As for the GGEM I should jump on that ship, I think its a millimeter? ..........so a dusting, yet the operational does not agree with the ens mean.

I would prefer to agree with the Euro, its been pretty steady since Sunday, where other models are jumping all over the place. In a nina year, I would follow climo and think its harder to get a sw moving into the 4 corners region, which the Euro does not show.

Anything can and will happen, but right now I am certainly not jumping on the gfs because it shows snow.

I am.

[CT Rain]

I understand that, but I honestly think it gets so engrained into the minds of some that they honestly believe it....I explicitly stated that I'm not tipping any chairs over that EURO run, though it doesn't make me feel comfy, obviously.

Yeah I feel the same way about the Euro run. Not good but not the end of the world.

I miss epic Ray meltdowns though...

[Baroclinic Zone]

Stating the obvious, but one way or the other the GFS or Euro has to move to the other camp and soon, otherwise it will be an epic fail in the 4-5 day lead.

[earthlight]

Really doesn't mean much, but the usually flat and less impressed (and nearly defunct) ETA is also a bit impressed with the shortwave entering the Baja than the Euro..and has a depiction more similar to the GFS in that regard. Which eventually leads to this.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ETACENT_12z/f84.gif

[CT Rain]

If the Euro ensembles look good I'll be much more excited. If they're like or east of the op run. Blahhhh

[Mr Torchey]

I am.

I know Jerry........I hope its right, but man tough when it gives you 2 feet twice then nothing for two runs then 4-6(my location).

Hopefully this is a situation similiar to last December and the euro bows to american guidance tomorrow!

[mahk_webstah]

I noticed Ray has stopped posting.

Someone text him in an hour and make sure he has freed himself from the noose before it's too late.

I believe he was busy writing the HPC discussion...

12Z GFS REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL WITH ITS STRONGER

SHORTWAVE AMPLIFICATION AS IT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST SATURDAY.

ITS MID LEVEL CONFIGURATION BY DAYS 4-5 FITS THE 00Z ECMWF ENS

MEAN PATTERN. ITS EXACT TRACK IS CRITICAL TO PCPN CHANCES AND

AMOUNTS ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST ESPECIALLY NEW ENGLAND. GOOD

AGREEMENT BY THE 12 GFS ENS MEAN AND 12Z CMC BUT CONTINUED FLAT

AND WELL AT SEA BY THE UKMET AND 12Z ECMWF. UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES

WITH TWO SEPERATE CAMPS. RAPID OFFSHORE DEEPENING SCENARIO BY THE

GFS RUNS SEEMS MORE LIKELY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW

ENCOUNTER AN UNSTABLE MARINE ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASED

BAROCLINICITY FROM THE CURRENT STRONG COLD ADVECTION FLOW OVER

RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS.

SOME COASTAL RAIN ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY WITH

SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF PCPN ACROSS ERN

VA/SRN MD/DELMARVA/ COASTAL NJ. DEEPENING LOW NEAR THE NORTHEAST

40/70 BENCHMARK AND CLOSED OFF MID LEVEL AND WELL DEVELOPED H850

LOW SETTING THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL HVY SNOWFALL INTO ERN AND

COASTAL NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CONTINUED WELL BELOW

NORMAL TEMPS EAST OF THE MS VALLEY WITH AGAIN WINDY CONDITIONS AND

LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TUESDAY-ONWARD INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD

SURGE POTENTIAL DEEP EXTENDING AGAIN INTO FLORIDA LATE NEXT WEEK

AND WEEKEND.

[NorEastermass128]

Just saw the 12z GFS ensembles. Man, I would be shocked if ENE did not at least see some accumulating snow.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yeah I feel the same way about the Euro run. Not good but not the end of the world.

I miss epic Ray meltdowns though...

The only way you will get one outta this sytem is if it ends up cutting too close, THAT would send me over the edge....if it whiffs, I'm gonna honestly be intrigued by the shot of culminating this epically futile stretch with a Decemeber shut out in the face of an extremely favorable monthly regime.

What a frigid day.....20.4!!

[MJO812]

HPC is riding the GFS. Big hit for SNE.

[ORH_wxman]

Interesting that HPC is going more toward the GFS than the Euro right now.