12/19-12/20 threat

[CT Rain]

has it at any point since this weekend - when it was day 7 or greater - actually shown a *meaningful* hit for SNE? not a "it's close" run...but an actual hit? i don't think it has...i think the best/worst case was when it had some 3-5" type snows in BOS?

This has been 5 runs in a row for a Euro miss.

[mattb65]

I think we'll know relatively soon which model is on the right page regarding the s/w. If nothing else both the GFS and Euro show a very favorable setup of the northern stream.

[earthlight]

The RUC says what southwest s/w?

Seems to have similar height positioning to the 12z GFS...I don't see it.

[skierinvermont]

Seems to have similar height positioning to the 12z GFS...I don't see it.

The 24hr 12z GFS takes the 564 line well down the coast of the Baja in a relatively sharp trough with a good s/w making landfall at the CA/Mexico border.

The 18hr 17z RUC keeps the 564 line flat along the CA/Mexico border and doesn't have much of a s/w making landfall at all.

I know my comparison is off by 1 hr.. but it's a large difference. The RUC would not resemble the GFS in 1 hour.

I'm not saying there won't be a storm.. given the PV positioning on the Euro.. if we get any sort of decent s/w in MT/WY or in the southwest.. then it will come west.

[Tropopause_Fold]

This has been 5 runs in a row for a Euro miss.

yeah that takes us back to the weekend.

i don't know.

[OSUmetstud]

It has the shortwave over over the Pacific well west of S California at 0 hours, but it basically disintegrates into nothing by 36 hours as its supposed to be going through S CA and Arizona.

The main feature that digs on the GFS is the shortwave from the Pacific northwest at 48 hours. The southern Cali shortwave is crap on the GFS too.

[Cold Miser]

LMAO with that image.

At least I can laugh at something, rather than cry like I'll be doing tomorrow when all hope will fade, and sink into the Atlantic, right about where the Titanic went down.

[Organizing Low]

It did it on the 12/19 event. The Euro didn't come around until what would be the equivalent of tomorrow 12z. The NAM was amped up, the GFS was jumping back and forth, and the Euro had been OTS until the 12z run on the 16th or 17th I believe it was.

i honestly think this is where the NAM becomes useful

if the NAM agrees with the GFS, im not quick to dismiss, in fact i expect at least a compromise from the euro..

if the NAM agrees with the euro , its over.

[MaineJayhawk]

yeah that takes us back to the weekend.

i don't know.

It's not good. Scraper.

[ORH_wxman]

The main feature that digs on the GFS is the shortwave from the Pacific northwest at 48 hours. The southern Cali shortwave is crap on the GFS too.

The PAC NW s/w late in the game is what digs on almost every model including the Euro...but the Euro has nothing to dig into...the GFS definitely still has that southwest s/w (now over Arkansas/Tenn at 78-84h) by the time the new energy from the Rockies comes in.

[skierinvermont]

The main feature that digs on the GFS is the shortwave from the Pacific northwest at 48 hours. The southern Cali shortwave is crap on the GFS too.

Disagree.. the s/w coming through CA has been phasing with the MT/WY s/w on the NAM and GFS. We could do it without much a CA s/w.. but that MT/WY one will have to be good if it's going to do it alone. The CA s/w helps to slow the trough down and sharpen it up while the MT/WY one dives in the backside

[CT Rain]

The PAC NW s/w late in the game is what digs on almost every model including the Euro...but the Euro has nothing to dig into...the GFS definitely still has that southwest s/w (now over Arkansas/Tenn at 78-84h) by the time the new energy from the Rockies comes in.

Yeah, exactly. With the southern s/w and the pac NW s/w they can sort of phase early and go negative and slow down before the eventual phase with a piece of the PV.

That is crucial to get any of this to happen.

[NorEastermass128]

yeah, I guess I want to just believe this is not true right now. This is getting borderline ridiculous. Whiffed to the left, whiffed to the south, whiffed to the north, whiffed to the west. 22" of snow in 18 months. yikes.

We're all struggling. I've seen (mainly bc I was at school last Jan-end of winter) less than 5" total in the past 11 months.

[Mr Torchey]

GGEM op is on west side of the ens mean

[OSUmetstud]

The PAC NW s/w late in the game is what digs on almost every model including the Euro...but the Euro has nothing to dig into...the GFS definitely still has that southwest s/w (now over Arkansas/Tenn at 78-84h) by the time the new energy from the Rockies comes in.

Oh I see what you're getting at. I thought the Euro still had some semblance of a southwest shortwave albeit weak...like the GFS.

[CT Rain]

Disagree.. the s/w coming through CA has been phasing with the MT/WY s/w on the NAM and GFS. We could do it without much a CA s/w.. but that MT/WY one will have to be good if it's going to do it alone

Yup, you nailed it. Just posted the same thing.

Unless the initial phase happens the s/w flies off the coast under the PV and we don't see a total phase until the thing is producing rain in Halifax.

[weathafella]

While the Euro is superior unquestionably, I will never trust crazy Uncle Ukie. Every system we have tracked over the years has wild solution changes within a few days. Mark my words, even if Euro hits us hard, Uncle won't come around until 24 hours out. I know it has good skill scores but to me it blows.

[40/70 Benchmark]

We're all struggling. I've seen (mainly bc I was at school last Jan-end of winter) less than 5" total in the past 11 months.

Haven't seen a snowfall of more than one inch since Feb 16.

[CT Rain]

GGEM op is on west side of the ens mean

No surprise. At this juncture I don't really look a whole lot into what the ensembles are doing unless.... the op is a total extreme... or the op is on the east side of the ensemble envelope in which case itw ill probably trend west.

[baroclinic_instability]

Yeah, exactly. With the southern s/w and the pac NW s/w they can sort of phase early and go negative and slow down before the eventual phase with a piece of the PV.

That is crucial to get any of this to happen.

The latest GFS solutions seem much less probable than earlier runs. It was initially phasing the the two anomalies, now it doesn't and it takes that southern stream wave ahead of the Pacific NW anomaly and partially phases that with the northern vortex then has the Pacific NW anomaly phasing later. Even the way the GFS deepens the low off the coast looks weird.

[weathafella]

Haven't seen a snowfall of more than one inch since Feb 16.

Been since NYD for me. I was away 2/16 in Chicago.

[dryslot]

It's not good. Scraper.

Euro throws back .75" qpf just to my northeast and .50" from me almost down to you may have some mixing issues though............

[Mr Torchey]

Frustrating day, the only models that really matter were complete whiffs besides an inch out on the cape. Tough year, hopefully things change, or at least we get something around Xmas or the day after!

[weathafella]

Frustrating day, the only models that really matter were complete whiffs besides an inch out on the cape. Tough year, hopefully things change, or at least we get something around Xmas or the day after!

We're getting nailed Sunday.

[ORH_wxman]

Oh I see what you're getting at. I thought the Euro still had some semblance of a southwest shortwave albeit weak...like the GFS.

Yeah I think even though the southwest shortwave isn't the main player...its important enough in that is keeps the heights out ahead of it just high enough to really let that Rockies s/w diving in late to go to town with whats left of the southwest s/w....so I think it ends up being the difference between out to sea and hammering New England.

I guess we can get away with less of a southwest shortwave if that Rockies s/w really comes in very strong on future runs, but I'd rather not try it that way, lol.

[CT Rain]

I noticed Ray has stopped posting.

Someone text him in an hour and make sure he has freed himself from the noose before it's too late.

[skierinvermont]

The GFS, NAM, RGEM, GGEM, and SREFs all have a decent s/w coming into CA (the GFS and NAM are probably the strongest and sharpest)

In the opposing camp where the s/w is much flatter we have the ECM, UKMET, and RUC

[CT Rain]

Yeah I think even though the southwest shortwave isn't the main player...its important enough in that is keeps the heights out ahead of it just high enough to really let that Rockies s/w diving in late to go to town with whats left of the southwest s/w....so I think it ends up being the difference between out to sea and hammering New England.

I guess we can get away with less of a southwest shortwave if that Rockies s/w really comes in very strong on future runs, but I'd rather not try it that way, lol.

Yeah even if the two don't phase... the southwest s/w is enough to amplify the pattern enough to favor an earlier phase.

Ahhhh oh well.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Been since NYD for me. I was away 2/16 in Chicago.

Should the EURO go on to score another win here, then this would go down as one of the worst snowfall years on record, and that is simply astounding considering it has also been one the most negative NAO years on record.....this calendar year has essentially been analagous to the 1979-80 season.....my worst winter on record, despite a neg NAO.

[baroclinic_instability]

Yeah I think even though the southwest shortwave isn't the main player...its important enough in that is keeps the heights out ahead of it just high enough to really let that Rockies s/w diving in late to go to town with whats left of the southwest s/w....so I think it ends up being the difference between out to sea and hammering New England.

I guess we can get away with less of a southwest shortwave if that Rockies s/w really comes in very strong on future runs, but I'd rather not try it that way, lol.

One thing to watch is now that the southern stream anomaly doesn't phase it may incite weak garbage cyclogenesis and disturb the gulf stream baroclinic zone ahead of the stronger wave. I think this is why some solutions are completely OTS.