Summer update III: SNE region's 4 primary climo sites all remain solidly above normal as of the closing of July 14.

[OSUmetstud]

I wonder if Syracuse could manage 100 today. 21C 850s and 94 at 11am?

[N. OF PIKE]

^{OWD and KFIT 91}

[CT Rain]

Mixing out nicely. BDL down to 63.

[Tropopause_Fold]

We may counter act with better mixing, but yeah it appears a little warm. I could see a 2F/hr deal for a few hours, but it will probably slow in the aftn I think.

im pretty comfortable with the idea 102F will be a bit too high. maybe that was an error.

[N. OF PIKE]

haha...so too warm again.

not really . or better said i think they were too high with temps bc the warmer air is a couple hours behind schedule

last few times (heat waves) models were too warm w/ the 20C 850 temps (as the 20c + air was shunted south) .....today it looks like the 20c temps were simply delayed ..as you can see 20c temps knocking on albany's door just to the west , sw , and Nw.

.but my money says 18z albany sounding would be right around 20C and 21c or so by 21z

i think high temps may be reached an hour or so later than ususal today with 850's warming thru the afternoon into the evening

also i think we need to watch for temps leveling off in bos and surrounding areas (esp N) for an hour or two around noon bc of the higher clouds moving thru but that should be a transient feature with clearing moving SE passing lebanon ,nh now

[Damage In Tolland]

Nice update on why so hot..also can be used as we head into the next few weeks..should substantial rain not fall tomorrow afternoon

OTHER CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE MAX TEMPS TODAY BY A FEW DEGS AS ALL

MODEL GUID INCREASES 850 TEMPS TO +21C JUST AFTER 18Z ALONG WITH

BNDRY LYR EXTENDING UP TO ABOUT 750MB! THIS COMBINED WITH

INCREASING SW SFC WNDS THIS AFTN WILL RESULT IN HIGHS 95-100 AWAY

FROM THE SOUTH COAST. ALREADY M80S AT MANY LOCATIONS WITH 87F AT

THE OFFICE HERE IN TAUNTON MA. ALSO RECENT DRY WEATHER WILL ALLOW

MUCH OF TODAY/S SOLAR HEATING TO WARM THE AIRMASS WITH LITTLE

GOING TOWARD EVAPORATION DUE TO DRY GROUND/SOILS. THIS COMBINED

WITH INCREASING DEW PTS RANGING FROM THE U60S TO L70S WILL YIELD

HEAT INDICES OF 100-104F THIS AFTERNOON. THUS EXCESSIVE HEAT

ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN POSTED.

[moneypitmike]

Full-reverse here it seems.

Down to 82.4/63, nearly 2* off the high. If these clouds stick, this will be one of several huge temp busts we've had. Maybe my lunchtime run won't be so bad after all.

[CoastalWx]

Nice update on why so hot..also can be used as we head into the next few weeks..should substantial rain not fall tomorrow afternoon

OTHER CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE MAX TEMPS TODAY BY A FEW DEGS AS ALL

MODEL GUID INCREASES 850 TEMPS TO +21C JUST AFTER 18Z ALONG WITH

BNDRY LYR EXTENDING UP TO ABOUT 750MB! THIS COMBINED WITH

INCREASING SW SFC WNDS THIS AFTN WILL RESULT IN HIGHS 95-100 AWAY

FROM THE SOUTH COAST. ALREADY M80S AT MANY LOCATIONS WITH 87F AT

THE OFFICE HERE IN TAUNTON MA. ALSO RECENT DRY WEATHER WILL ALLOW

MUCH OF TODAY/S SOLAR HEATING TO WARM THE AIRMASS WITH LITTLE

GOING TOWARD EVAPORATION DUE TO DRY GROUND/SOILS. THIS COMBINED

WITH INCREASING DEW PTS RANGING FROM THE U60S TO L70S WILL YIELD

HEAT INDICES OF 100-104F THIS AFTERNOON. THUS EXCESSIVE HEAT

ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN POSTED.

I don't see low 70 dews at all north of the south coast. Won't happen aside from your weenie Davis. That's a little hypocritical saying dry soils yet increasing dew points with solar heating helping to mix out. Dews may increase overnight.

[N. OF PIKE]

yes but stil the idea that the heat was underdone like it was on past modeling ...flys in the face of what taunton NWS just put out. 21c regionwide by 18z (unless tan nws is off inside of 6 hours ) .......hasn't happened in last few heat waves....that 20c+ air was shunted south ...last few times. not this time

[CoastalWx]

yes but stil the idea that the heat was underdone like it was on past modeling ...flys in the face of what taunton NWS just put out. 21c regionwide by 18z .......hasn't happened in last few heat waves....that 20c+ air was shunted south ...last few times. not this time

This set up had the best look yet, but the previous heat events still had warm air advecting in from the west during the day. If you are not near 20C at 850 on 12z of the day...I don't see how you hit 100 unless there is very good mixing. Drier soils and better mixing will likely allow for upper 90s in spots today. I could be wrong, and Logan hits 100...if that's the case, it's due to dry soil and good mixing.

[mahk_webstah]

KFIT at 90F...poor Tip

He's gettin napey wit it.

[N. OF PIKE]

high clouds outside now in wakefield,ma definitely slowing the heating for a bit

[mahk_webstah]

Dreary and cloudy, upper 70's here.

I'm starting to wonder if this heat will arrive.

I'm thinking we might soar and get steamy once this line of light sprinkles moves through...radar says that happens in the next hour.

[CT Rain]

I don't see low 70 dews at all north of the south coast. Won't happen aside from your weenie Davis. That's a little hypocritical saying dry soils yet increasing dew points with solar heating helping to mix out. Dews may increase overnight.

Yeah it's dry and will promote strong mixing but dews will be in the 70s.

[moneypitmike]

Boy, sun came out and temp really rebounded quickly--85.4/66, ftl.

[N. OF PIKE]

ryan what do you see for highs in the 128 corridor of MASS.

you know the KBED, KFIT, KOWD corridor area. upper 90's by 4pm ?

[weathafella]

91/64 BOS for Noon reading. 210 winds will limit further warming significantly unless it goes back to full westerly downsloper.

[HoarfrostHubb]

85.9F KHUBB

[Damage In Tolland]

BDL races ahead into the torch lead.

93..WOW..Impressive..They very well may make a run at 100

[Sugarloaf1989]

84.8F here making a run at the forecast high of 95F.

[Modfan]

Not sure what the numbers show today, but as on who works outdoors today does not feel as humid as yesterday, and there is atleast some sort of breeze! Almost, nice out, even with the warmer temps.

[Sugarloaf1989]

It looks like a band of clouds is about to move in as it's cloudy to my west. That might dim the sunshine and heating for a bit.

[CT Rain]

Not sure what the numbers show today, but as on who works outdoors today does not feel as humid as yesterday, and there is atleast some sort of breeze! Almost, nice out, even with the warmer temps.

Yeah am down in new haven working on a story and it's pretty nice.

[Modfan]

Yeah am down in new haven working on a story and it's pretty nice.

I have been in the East Hartford/Glastonbury area both yesterday and today, and today is a little better. It appears reading above dews are lower.

[moneypitmike]

It looks like a band of clouds is about to move in as it's cloudy to my west. That might dim the sunshine and heating for a bit.

Clouds sure can have an impact. I've been in them much of the day. When they cleared out about 45 minutes ago, I spiked to 87.1 (yikes!). Back into them now and I'm down to 86.3/68.

No shawl day it seems.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah it's dry and will promote strong mixing but dews will be in the 70s.

You think dews in the 70s?

[CoastalWx]

91/64 BOS for Noon reading. 210 winds will limit further warming significantly unless it goes back to full westerly downsloper.

Couple of clouds too.

[CT Rain]

You think dews in the 70s?

I was summarizing BOX. I didn't get it.

[Sugarloaf1989]

86.1F here, come on 90F+

[CoastalWx]

I was summarizing BOX. I didn't get it.

Oh lol, sorry. My head is all over the place today. Lots going on.