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Summer update III: SNE region's 4 primary climo sites all remain solidly above normal as of the closing of July 14.

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
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Looks like BOX is going for temps near 100 too in BOS thanks to dry ground. I'm not sold on that, but we'll see. I still think mostly 96-98 stuff...and who knows about any cirrus messing things up.

for tomorrow? that warm?? i hadn't looked at data for BOS at all today...but would have guessed calls were going to be like 94-96F LOL.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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for tomorrow? that warm?? i hadn't looked at data for BOS at all today...but would have guessed calls were going to be like 94-96F LOL.

Yeah I know. People are asking me about the 100 and I'm saying no so hopefully I'm right..lol. But whether it's 97 or 100...people aren't going to care.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

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Yeah I know. People are asking me about the 100 and I'm saying no so hopefully I'm right..lol. But whether it's 97 or 100...people aren't going to care.

i'm really surprised to see that.

maybe not smart, but i feel like if anything, i'd be leaning cooler just on persistence of how so many of these air masses have panned out.

i feel like in the end, each has ended up a couple ticks cooler aloft...and right now it looks like consenus would be, what, like 21C at 850? so if the "seasonal trend" is right, that may end up more like 19C.

i'd go back to what we talked about earlier in the season...want to see that weenie 24C contour show up.

i remember for the july heat last year, the euro 2m #s at BOS were 37C at 18z....tomorrow is 34C.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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i'm really surprised to see that.

maybe not smart, but i feel like if anything, i'd be leaning cooler just on persistence of how so many of these air masses have panned out.

i feel like in the end, each has ended up a couple ticks cooler aloft...and right now it looks like consenus would be, what, like 21C at 850? so if the "seasonal trend" is right, that may end up more like 19C.

i'd go back to what we talked about earlier in the season...want to see that weenie 24C contour show up.

i remember for the july heat last year, the euro 2m #s at BOS were 37C at 18z....tomorrow is 34C.

I know it. The whole 850 temps warming during the day is a bootleg way of justifying a 100 imo. Two things happen. The warmer temps advect in and the temp at 850 warms during the day. If we had 22 or 23C on the Albany sounding at 12z, then maybe I'd rethink it. Now mixing will be high so that may help, but I just don't see those temps. The 102 on the P&C is a good reason why we tell people not to use those. I must have clicked on a brick condo high-rise.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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MOS (esp the NAM) has been persistently too warm within this warmer pattern since June. There is really no reason to go against that idea right now with a SW wind (not optimal for SNE vs WNW/NW) and 850 temps yet again not quite as warm as previously forecast about 48 hours ago and not starting off overly warm.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

I know it. The whole 850 temps warming during the day is a bootleg way of justifying a 100 imo. Two things happen. The warmer temps advect in and the temp at 850 warms during the day. If we had 22 or 23C on the Albany sounding at 12z, then maybe I'd rethink it. Now mixing will be high so that may help, but I just don't see those temps. The 102 on the P&C is a good reason why we tell people not to use those. I must have clicked on a brick condo high-rise.

They have 102F on the p & c?! I'll take the way under. Lol

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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WBZ went with 95 for Boston, WFXT 96

I think I hit 91 or so...

Anyone have any idea why some of the products have been high biased lately?

The only thing I saw was something from NCEP saying the GFS MOS was too low in the big heat last month in the TN valley area. Meanwhile, the NAM has been too high here. Some sort of parameter is messing the temps up. It seems to happen with these warm temps.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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The only thing I saw was something from NCEP saying the GFS MOS was too low in the big heat last month in the TN valley area. Meanwhile, the NAM has been too high here. Some sort of parameter is messing the temps up. It seems to happen with these warm temps.

MET MOS was doing a much better job in the core of the heat to our southwest the past month...but its been just a completely disgraceful abortion up here for the past month during these heat intrusions.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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MET MOS was doing a much better job in the core of the heat to our southwest the past month...but its been just a completely disgraceful abortion up here for the past month during these heat intrusions.

Believe it or not, the euro did a good job sniffing out the heat like 10 days out. I remember the euro having surface temps of over 110 down there and sort of laughing...but the dam thing was right. It did well.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

Well, the time for speculation seems to be done. I got to 90.0 back on June 21. I suppose that might get beaten today. But, with the busts that have been happening, perhaps not. Certainly have a good launch point--only got down to 69.5 at the Pit. Good luck with records in your respective areas--102* in BOS. Heh heh heh.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

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BDL is 7 inches below normal for rainfall YTD..That goes to show how dangerous the situation currently is..and explains why the temps torch even with somewhat cooler 850's. Dry ground FTW

Where are they departure-wise for the last month and the last two months? I would expect that would be more telling for the current situation.

j

65/63 and raining pretty hard this morning. Looks like we'll struggle to get very warm today. Need to at least make low 80s for any exciting storms later today.

Congrats. Clouds have ruled the early going here and there's been no real change in temp from my 69.5 low (currently 70.2). Any significant delay on the sun certainly could put the kabosh on anything too hot.

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