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Long Duration Noreaster - First week of June

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Yeah that's how I see it and the point of the thread. Sunday might be an in between day SW and W of BOS while north shore is wet, and then it gradually sinks SW Sunday Night and Monday.

Check this ... but didn't 2006 have a kind of duration cut-off migrate under that delivered a WCB/CCB nexus head to the Merrimack watershed??

I remember the Merrimack at UML ....never thunk it possible. what sight that was! The water at that Pawtuckett Street damn was flowing over the top of a dam with barely a ripple present at the surface.

I went to school there for 5 years and never saw anything like that flood.

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
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Check this ... but didn't 2006 have a kind of duration cut-off migrate under that delivered a WCB/CCB nexus head to the Merrimack watershed??

I remember the Merrimack at UML ....never thunk it possible. what sight that was! The water at that Pawtuckett Street damn was flowing over the top of a dam with barely a ripple present at the surface.

I went to school there for 5 years and never saw anything like that flood.

Similar in spring of 1987. A friend of mine has his condo basically destroyed in the 2006 flooding

UML met program was featured in the latest Alumni magazine (well, a small article - wrt the Marathon).

This weather coming up will cause mass suicides I think

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Similar in spring of 1987. A friend of mine has his condo basically destroyed in the 2006 flooding

UML met program was featured in the latest Alumni magazine (well, a small article - wrt the Marathon).

This weather coming up will cause mass suicides I think

I'm actually okay with it weather expectation.

I'm looking at it like:

1) We were uber spoiled with delusions of what the weather is like around here in Spring through all of late March through much of if not all of May. Though there were a couple 2.5 D long type periods, by and large, we had 4 or 5 weekends in a row of top 10 days on one, if not both weekend days. That puts us at 12 top 10 days, and there only supposed to be 10 - ha! Anyway, gotta take the good with the ugly.

2) In my experience over the years, the years that are warm in June tend to go the other direction in July and August, and vice versa. I don't know why that is, just the way I remember things. There are a few years, like 2002, 2003, 2005 ...etc, where there was cooler raining episodes in latter May into June, then the mid summer turned torrid. Contrasting, 2008 had a heat wave early then we cool pooled out the rest of the summer. Good growing season when we are wet, then hot.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck...

For all intents and purposes it's gusty NE winds Sunday aftn through Tuesday with rain and even coastal flooding. LOL, call it what you want I guess. Not all nor'easters have to be 980 lows at the benchmark. For this time of year, I'd say it qualifies as one..considering you'll be cloudy and cold into Tuesday and possibly Wednesday.

Cold?
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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Agreed. This will be a nor'easter for Maine. Probably NH and EMA. It can still be a noreaster even if there isn't a CCB in GC/CT/E.NY area.

Yeah, the use of CCB is more appropriate to the coast where its affect is more discerned. Once you get inland by a couple hundred miles it becomes different, because the boundary layer condition prevents much of the CCB's impact from getting down the surface - it elevates.

Since all the greatest Nor'easters have a CCB, the best model for a "Nor'easter" should consider the presence of one where applicable.

AMS' definition:

northeaster—(Commonly contracted nor'easter.) A northeast wind, particularly a strong wind or gale. Two well-known examples are the black northeaster of Australia and New Zealand and the northeast storm of the east coast of North America.

It seems to me a wind from the NE is different than "...Particularly a strong wind or gale". Which is also suggested by the inset definition for a Northeast Storm:


northeast storm—(Also called northeaster, nor'easter.) A cyclonic storm of the east coast of North America, so called because the winds over the coastal area are from the northeast. They may occur at any time of year but are most frequent and most violent between September and April. Northeast storms usually develop in lower–middle latitudes (30°–40°N) within 100 miles east or west of the coastline. They progress generally northward to northeastward and typically attain maximum intensity near New England and the Maritime Provinces. They nearly always bring precipitation, winds of gale force, rough seas, and, occasionally, coastal flooding to the affected regions.

So how ever people want to apply these definitions to the weekend through mid week period, I still say this system has some of both.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Check this ... but didn't 2006 have a kind of duration cut-off migrate under that delivered a WCB/CCB nexus head to the Merrimack watershed??

I remember the Merrimack at UML ....never thunk it possible. what sight that was! The water at that Pawtuckett Street damn was flowing over the top of a dam with barely a ripple present at the surface.

I went to school there for 5 years and never saw anything like that flood.

Yeah it was sort of a stalled low or even frontal boundary with disturbances enhanced the LLJ from time to time over the Merrimack watershed. It basically was a high theta-e plume being squeezed out over the area..enhanced even by a CF.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Researching high wind events at the ANC NWS. Just here for the summer

I've always wanted to go there, to Alaska. Not necessarily Anchorage or Fairbanks, per se, but the experience. Not sure why. Drawn to it. So often I have clicked on Alaska's region on NWS's home page just to see what they are getting. Barrow is always a hoot. I remember at the end of April, when it was 90 here, there was a wind-chilll warning there. I think it was then.

Anyway, it's probably a tedious place to live like everywhere else on the planet, once you get used to it though.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

It happens a lot, More so in winter when someones snow is taken away..

"Wow the 12z is a complete miss and disaster." (While all of Maine sees 10"+)

Or

"I'd rather this storm go out to sea than hit NNE.".

Ahh can't wait for winter :lol: sorry for the off topic, probably deleteable and just playing around.

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OKpowdah

OKpowdah

Posted
Posted

There are considerable differences between model guidance on the evolution of this system. The GFS and Euro seem to make the coastal wave dominant, with the primary trough further west which eventually deamplifies upstream and underneath the coastal disturbance. The NAM has the primary trough further east so there is more positive feedback between the developing coastal low and the trough. The upper level wave with the coastal ends up phasing into the primary trough, helping to support this surface trough extending further west back toward New England. The CMC and UK tend to maintain the primary further west, but never phases the coastal disturbance, so it escapes east faster.

Interesting stuff can happen with strong late spring / early summer blocking

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

12z Euro is a soaker. Seeing some 1"+ 3hr totals.

4-6" jackpot for the IZG-PSM-PWM triangle. Euro has 40s covering all of NH Mon afternoon. The CON record low max is in jeopardy if it gets cold enough by midnight so that there isn't a lame early high temp well into the 50s.
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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

SREFs pound srn ME. This is becoming a signal for classic heavy rain. Strong LLJ aiding in theta-e plume right into Maine. Mid level frontogenesis and even probably some lift in the lower levels. Likely some upslope too. Question is how far south does it get before transitioning to more OE type sheet rains. Seems like extreme NE MA may get in on the action somewhat.

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