Northeast Severe/Convective/Thunder thread II

[ChrisM]

Strat shooting cu to my w

[Damage In Tolland]

Looks like no AFD from BOX today. Odd in the midst of a severe wx event. You'd think they'd get one done early

[moneypitmike]

Rumbles of thunder to the west. Radar would say "yup".

80.6/72

[CoastalWx]

Probably peaked in terms of severe coverage. Southern end of the line near POU isn't the greatest looking, but it could perk up in the next hour.

[moneypitmike]

Was hoping I might get a night time light show. Suspect it's too early for GC?

[Damage In Tolland]

Probably peaked in terms of severe coverage. Southern end of the line near POU isn't the greatest looking, but it could perk up in the next hour.

Looks great over NE Pa...no reason for it to weaken over the next 2-3 hours as it rips east

[moneypitmike]

Probably peaked in terms of severe coverage. Southern end of the line near POU isn't the greatest looking, but it could perk up in the next hour.

I was wondering about that myself....think it might be more mundane wrt thunder/lightning. But, torrential rains look to be in order.

[TalcottWx]

cirrus spreading overhead here

[Damage In Tolland]

New nasty cell forming over Hudson Valley headed east for CT

[ksstormhunter]

Pushed out a smart cast for the region. Tracking potential of convective gusts around 60-70 mph, hail up to 2.2" in size. Data uploaded http://smartwxmodel.net/Storm1.htm

[Typhoon Tip]

Looks like no AFD from BOX today. Odd in the midst of a severe wx event. You'd think they'd get one done early

It's cuz they don't see any need for one because there is no concern for CT

[radarman]

Up goes the watch

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 315

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA

553 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

CTC003-013-MAC011-013-015-027-300200-

/O.EXA.KBOX.SV.A.0315.000000T0000Z-120530T0200Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM

WATCH 315 TO INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS

EVENING

IN CONNECTICUT THIS WATCH INCLUDES 2 COUNTIES

IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT

HARTFORD TOLLAND

IN MASSACHUSETTS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS

WORCESTER

IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS

FRANKLIN HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...FITCHBURG...GREENFIELD...HARTFORD...

NORTHAMPTON...SPRINGFIELD...UNION...VERNON AND WORCESTER.

[Damage In Tolland]

It's cuz they don't see any need for one because there is no concern for CT

Up goes the watch

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 315

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA

553 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

CTC003-013-MAC011-013-015-027-300200-

/O.EXA.KBOX.SV.A.0315.000000T0000Z-120530T0200Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM

WATCH 315 TO INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS

EVENING

IN CONNECTICUT THIS WATCH INCLUDES 2 COUNTIES

IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT

HARTFORD TOLLAND

IN MASSACHUSETTS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS

WORCESTER

IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS

FRANKLIN HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...FITCHBURG...GREENFIELD...HARTFORD...

NORTHAMPTON...SPRINGFIELD...UNION...VERNON AND WORCESTER.

Good call tip..You've been spot on all day

[Mr Torchey]

watch just ripped here, dp of 70, not too shabby for right on the coast, looking forwards to a nice light show, potential damaging winds later tonight.

[TalcottWx]

Good call tip..You've been spot on all day

As spot on as a shotgun buckshot from 2000 yards

[ChrisM]

It's cuz they don't see any need for one because there is no concern for CT

The tor watch for us was an accident eh

[TalcottWx]

watch is awfully late for nh, but well done all around for the counties they picked

[free_man]

Nice mammatus a little while ago in Nashua.

Getting uninterrupted thunder here at home.

[radarman]

For posterity... Fairly low probabilities.

WWUS40 KWNS 291942

WWP5

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WS 0315

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0242 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

WS 0315

PROBABILITY TABLE:

PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 20%

PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 05%

PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 20%

PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : <05%

PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 30%

PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 10%

PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 60%

&&

ATTRIBUTE TABLE:

MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 2.0

MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60

MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500

MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 26025

PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

[CoastalWx]

Maybe those cells can backbuild into nrn CT, but otherwise I don't see widespread severe for CT.

[ineedsnow]

sky is pitch black to the west

[adamrivers]

That cell near Great Barrington is trying but really has a long way to go to tighten up

[Damage In Tolland]

Maybe those cells can backbuild into nrn CT, but otherwise I don't see widespread severe for CT.

Why?

[Mr. Windcredible!]

Wiz shoulve gone up to Saratoga Springs...sounds like they were hit hard. Police asking people to stay off roads. Someone mentioned earlier that to be a climatologically good spot...good call.

[TalcottWx]

Why?

You think widespread? LOL

[ChrisM]

Line kinda looks like crap for lots of svr

[wxsniss]

any obs from north of Keene? must have some flash flooding going on, those 50+ dbz have barely budged in the past hour

[dan11295]

Might be some hail contamination based on storm reports. radar rainfall estimates getting close to 7" in that area.

[moneypitmike]

sky is pitch black to the west

Sky is pitch black over my head. Lightning flashes and thunder.

Under a warning, ftw.

* UNTIL 700 PM EDT

* AT 555 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE

HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE

LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ROWE TO CHESTER...OR ALONG A

LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES EAST OF NORTH ADAMS TO 18 MILES NORTH

OF HARTLAND...AND WAS MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...WORTHINGTON...HAWLEY...

CUMMINGTON...HEATH...BLANDFORD...CHESTERFIELD...BUCKLAND...

HUNTINGTON...ASHFIELD...GOSHEN...RUSSELL...COLRAIN...MONTGOMERY...

WESTHAMPTON...SHELBURNE...CONWAY AND WILLIAMSBURG.

[CoastalWx]

Wiz shoulve gone up to Saratoga Springs...sounds like they were hit hard. Police asking people to stay off roads. Someone mentioned earlier that to be a climatologically good spot...good call.

Yeah they are always in a primo spot. Really good severe hot spot..probably aided by terrain effects.