Weathergun Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0956 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1056 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 291556Z - 291700Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...GIVEN THE HIGHER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...A WW IS BEING COORDINATED SHORTLY FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WW IS LIKELY FOR WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...A TORNADO WW IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY EWD. DISCUSSION...WITH STORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY LATER TODAY...A WW MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY. SEVERAL AREAS OF NEW INITIATION REMAIN POSSIBLE...INCLUDING ALONG THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH OVER ERN NY...AND ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND NO LONGER CAPPED...NEW INITIATION WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED BY THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL AND FORCING FOR ASCENT APPROACHES THE AREA...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE. A PREDOMINANT THREAT OF DMGG WINDS IS EXPECTED...GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET /25-30 KT 850 MB JET BY THIS AFTERNOON/ AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH BACKED SLY SURFACE WINDS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND 70S DEW POINTS...ENHANCED TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY EXIST...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION. ..HURLBUT/WEISS.. 05/29/2012 ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Albany is looking pretty good right now with 88/72 and a sse wind at 10 mph. I'll probably head just south of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 ALB up to GFL continue to have a ll flow that's S, sometimes E of S. that might be a good target zone if you're looking for any enhanced turning. CT valley has it too but i'm not sure if that region is far enough west. We were just commenting in the office that eastern New York/Vermont looks primed if they can keep the channeled low level flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Ern NY looks great for severe right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 You guys remember when today the medium range data at one point was indicating the potential for strong wind to move into the decaying EML? Today was so close to being a moderate risk day. You The man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 DISCUSSION...WITH STORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY LATER TODAY...A WW MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY. SEVERAL AREAS OF NEW INITIATION REMAIN POSSIBLE...INCLUDING ALONG THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH OVER ERN NY...AND ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND NO LONGER CAPPED...NEW INITIATION WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED BY THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL AND FORCING FOR ASCENT APPROACHES THE AREA...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE. A PREDOMINANT THREAT OF DMGG WINDS IS EXPECTED...GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET /25-30 KT 850 MB JET BY THIS AFTERNOON/ AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH BACKED SLY SURFACE WINDS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND 70S DEW POINTS...ENHANCED TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY EXIST...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 ALB up to GFL continue to have a ll flow that's S, sometimes E of S. that might be a good target zone if you're looking for any enhanced turning. CT valley has it too but i'm not sure if that region is far enough west. Yeah...originally the suggestion of Pittsfield looked good...but looking more and more like Albany is a good spot to set up. Easy access to head N, E, S, or W. Not sure wiz had planned to travel that far west though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Officially hit 90/76 lol. Brutal, just brutal. Got a class at 6 tonight, to skip and chase or not to skip and chase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 where did you guys settle on for setting up shop? Going to start off just south of the Albany area somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Wiz should head to the NY/MA border and play from there... hope his friend likes driving a lot today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 We were just commenting in the office that Vermont looks primed if they can keep the channeled low level flow. yeah if anything that region might be a little better with stronger low level wind fields...which would only be enhanced in any N/S valley regions. there's a bit less instability up that way but that should improve some later on. southern part of the CT valley looks OK but might be too far s/e timing wise? not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 What's the link where you guys see the moderate risk from SPC/ info regarding possible tornado watch etc.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Just not worth the SUV gas MPG to go chase this for me. I'm too poor LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 yeah if anything that region might be a little better with stronger low level wind fields...which would only be enhanced in any N/S valley regions. there's a bit less instability up that way but that should improve some later on. southern part of the CT valley looks OK but might be too far s/e timing wise? not sure. I'm not totally impressed by effective shear values the farther south you go. Could lead to some disorganization with updrafts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Going to start off just south of the Albany area somewhere. are you driving yet? lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 What's the link where you guys see the moderate risk from SPC/ info regarding possible tornado watch etc.? MD 956 from the SPC website for tor watch, 954 fo otlk upgrade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 HRRR really blows stuff up in ern NY state and srn VT and srn NH, Those cells look interesting given environment they'll be in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Just to show you how primed the atmosphere is across parts of the outlook area, the storm that just formed east of Oswego is shooting 70 dBZ over 22kft already. Probably on it's way to 2"+ hail shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 We're going to go to Troy...my friend knows that area well and there is a McDonalds with wifi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 HM got his moderate risk...just happened 2 days before his teasing about the 31st lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 BUF SWS says storm capable of golf ball sized hal in Erie and Wyoming counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Looking at CC from KENX the hail core aloft is producing values close to .80. That's usually pretty close to significant versus large hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 BUF SWS says storm capable of golf ball sized hal in Erie and Wyoming counties Glenwood, Erie already reported 0.88", but that was at 11:45 a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Anyone know how much tolls would be if we went 91 north to Springfield than I90 (MA Pike) from there to Albany? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 there were golfballs in NE Ohio already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 LOL 3700 j/kg of SB cape over my head, along with almost 4k of MU CAPE. Don't remember seeing that recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJBASHB Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 God, I wish I could go chasing. This could be the best chance all summer. After Thursday I'm pretty open to go chasing but I can't today...hopefully Wiz seems something good. Temp actually dropped at ORH last hour...why? They might have had that boundary flex back over them. I'm down in Fitchburg at the moment. Low clouds, cool, fog, constant breeze out of the east. It's an impressive change in airmass over a short distance. Needless to say there won't be much interesting weather east of that front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 LOL 3700 j/kg of SB cape over my head, along with almost 4k of MU CAPE. Don't remember seeing that recently. Storms today will likely have some absolutely insane lightning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 For interior SNE: if you loop this you can see a boundary working west. Not sure if that is outflow from the storms that raced seaward, or if that is active back dooring, but that could put the kabash on it for SNE. http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/index.php?load=vis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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