HM Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Do you live in nrn NJ? I think that area has a chance at decent storms. I actually moved further south into NJ but I am planning to be in N NJ this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 shear profile sucks at the moment...winds are backing with height above 850mb on the mesoanalysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 That was good to see Ryan, down by OKX. The models really weaken the EML during the day. I can't really see why other than downstream stuff in the OV, but I guess crappy lapse rates could advert in from PA. Still, I think near 6.5-7C/KM are possible I guess. The soundings this morning are impressive and the RAP seems to have a nice handle of them. All available guidance brings in the crappy lapse rates swiftly. I wouldn't mind 6.5-7 C/KM mid level lapse rates if the deep layer shear was 40+kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 I don't see what you mean. Looks like they highlighted western areas. Tomorrow looks like our best shot here in the eastern areas. Well i am western areas. I'm on the eastern side of western SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 SPC goes balls to the wall for 13z update including W CT/SE NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 5/30/30 for SPC west of Hartford Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 not sure why my area is in the 30% probabilities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 SPC has 5% Tor probs for all of CT except Windham and New London Counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Impressive. Wonder if today is Wiz's day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 I think wind fields are just too weak down here for any tornado potential. I agree with the 5% contour up toward VT though. 30% hail/wind is a touch too far south I think particularly down by NJ. That said big CAPE may be able to maintain storm organization with a cold pool south of best deep layer shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 The soundings this morning are impressive and the RAP seems to have a nice handle of them. All available guidance brings in the crappy lapse rates swiftly. I wouldn't mind 6.5-7 C/KM mid level lapse rates if the deep layer shear was 40+kts. Absolutely. We'll see what happens, but I like western areas of SNE right now..into srn VT and NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 If I was Wiz I'd think about chasing (consider he chases on see text days). Maybe start off in Pittsfield? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Just woke up...WOW at the SPC outlook. Guess I'll have to look harder now to figure a spot to go to for this afternoon. If we're going north we should make that decision soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 The text from the SPC suggests 7 C/KM mid level lapse rates and 30-40 knots of deep layer shear. That certainly does not pertain to NJ. We are going to need a cold pool driven cluster to get severe wind down this way. Interesting probabilities though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 I really hope so I wish he stayed around here I would love to see his reaction to his first tornado! Impressive. Wonder if today is Wiz's day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 The text from the SPC suggests 7 C/KM mid level lapse rates and 30-40 knots of deep layer shear. That certainly does not pertain to NJ. We are going to need a cold pool driven cluster to get severe wind down this way. Interesting probabilities though... Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Just woke up...WOW at the SPC outlook. Guess I'll have to look harder now to figure a spot to go to for this afternoon. If we're going north we should make that decision soon. Good luck today. These were the probabilities we thought we would see for yesterday. I would head to anywhere you know localized pressure falls will locally back the winds underneath moderate low-mid level speed shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 If I was Wiz I'd think about chasing (consider he chases on see text days). Maybe start off in Pittsfield? We could do that. Was just discussing with my friend about perhaps SW VT but Pittsfield sounds good. I used to go there all the time in middle school b/c my friend had a summer home outside that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 I think wind fields are just too weak down here for any tornado potential. I agree with the 5% contour up toward VT though. 30% hail/wind is a touch too far south I think particularly down by NJ. That said big CAPE may be able to maintain storm organization with a cold pool south of best deep layer shear. Yeah I think that's HMs hope...at least up in nrn NJ areas. I think they are ok for storms late today. Up here, those lapse rates combined with modest shear are plenty for strong winds. I agree about the TOR probs...probably not that conducive for something like that, but looks like a good wind/hail day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 If I was Wiz I'd think about chasing (consider he chases on see text days). Maybe start off in Pittsfield? He sometimes chases on isolated thundershower days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Absolutely. We'll see what happens, but I like western areas of SNE right now..into srn VT and NH. Yeah up there is a different story. Watch this morning's convection and where remnant boundaries set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 If I were Wiz I would use CEF has a staging area. I don't think you'll need to go too far from there for prime spots..in any direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Round 3 of TS on its way here, Been strong storms all morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 If I were Wiz I would use CEF as a staging area. I don't think you'll need to go too far from there for prime spots..in any direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Maybe we can get a couple of interesting cells near the WF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Yeah up there is a different story. Watch this morning's convection and where remnant boundaries set up. I really wouldn't lose much hope north of I-80 if that's where you'll be. I could see some good ones there. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 I really wouldn't lose much hope north of I-80 if that's where you'll be. I could see some good ones there. We'll see. He lives near Trenton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 He lives near Trenton He said he'll be up north in the evening. Going to be tough down by TTN for sure, but they'll be around even there. In fact, all models have QPF down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonkis Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 SW Vermont will be tricky because the Taconics can obstruct the views to the west. A couple of spots around Bennington might work - just over the border on NY Route 7 is pretty open with low hills. We could do that. Was just discussing with my friend about perhaps SW VT but Pittsfield sounds good. I used to go there all the time in middle school b/c my friend had a summer home outside that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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