free_man Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 This thread is to discuss upcoming thunder/convective threats through Memorial Day and beyond into June, as things heat up. Model information, satellite, soundings, hodograph, speculation, watches/ warnings, disappointment, successes etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 Could perhaps see a few storms around Wednesday/Thursday, however, very little in the way of shear so any storms that pop would be rather unorganized and more pulse type. I do like how things are looking as we go through Memorial Day weekend and into next week. Perfect timing too b/c my friend will be down from NH on Monday for two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 21, 2012 Author Share Posted May 21, 2012 Could perhaps see a few storms around Wednesday/Thursday, however, very little in the way of shear so any storms that pop would be rather unorganized and more pulse type. I do like how things are looking as we go through Memorial Day weekend and into next week. Perfect timing too b/c my friend will be down from NH on Monday for two weeks. Yeah, doesn't look like anything organized at all until the weekend, which actually ain't so bad. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 Yeah, doesn't look like anything organized at all until the weekend, which actually ain't so bad. lol I am really liking how the 500/700mb pattern is shaping up...pretty much what you would like to see. Just hopefully we can get the pattern to produce something good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 21, 2012 Author Share Posted May 21, 2012 I am really liking how the 500/700mb pattern is shaping up...pretty much what you would like to see. Just hopefully we can get the pattern to produce something good. 12z gfs looks good for your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 12z gfs looks good for your area. Saturday really doesn't look too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 very impressive EML being modeled on Monday for the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 very impressive EML being modeled on Monday for the northeast. Looks like June 5th , 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 Saturday really doesn't look too bad. Front hangs up over us and could dump some really heavy rain. Surface winds at ALB veering during the day, and backed with height, but persistent SSW to our SE. Winds look pretty light on the whole, and swirling, and I could see some highly localized wet-microburst kind of stuff... Not too picturesque or organized though I'd guess. Next week looks better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 Looks like June 5th , 2011 june 1st, you mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 Front hangs up over us and could dump some really heavy rain. Surface winds at ALB veering during the day, and backed with height, but persistent SSW to our SE. Winds look pretty light on the whole, and swirling, and I could see some highly localized wet-microburst kind of stuff... Not too picturesque or organized though I'd guess. Next week looks better Agreed. If anything Saturday could be more of a heavy rain/flash flooding type event given how weak shear is and with the front stalling or moving very slowly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 very impressive EML being modeled on Monday for the northeast. Yup! Day my friend comes down too...looks like fropa on Tuesday perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 If only the GFS were right for Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 If only the GFS were right for Monday. TTs of 59 with 300mb deep EML for BUF on Sunday night lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 22, 2012 Author Share Posted May 22, 2012 Should be plenty of damage for all Monday/Tuesday. :> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 By Monday it appears the EML has weakened by the time it gets into our region, although it's still a fairly steep lapse rate environment. I think a large chunk of this major instability is due to the face the GFS is painting dews to be near the mid 70's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Things starting to look really nice for this area this weekend and beyond. That major ridge that is progged to develop over the Southeast should really pump some warmth in here and make things interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 22, 2012 Author Share Posted May 22, 2012 Things starting to look really nice for this area this weekend and beyond. That major ridge that is progged to develop over the Southeast should really pump some warmth in here and make things interesting. Can't think of a better way to kick off the summer. 12z gfs gives us multiple chances of strong/severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Can't think of a better way to kick off the summer. 12z gfs gives us multiple chances of strong/severe. Yeah, hopefully that survives a few model runs and gets support. Looks pretty nice for boomers/hail? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Hopefully there are damage causing type storms..tree damage of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Hopefully there are damage causing type storms..tree damage of course Maybe your danglers can be taken down without your help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Maybe your danglers can be taken down without your help The only thing that will bring them down is wind and/or another October snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 I am starting to really like the pattern mid to late next week on the current modeling for severe weather from the Midwest into the Northeast. I love the way the ridge asserts itself and then retreats to the southern Plains as a series of strong s/w move eastward across the US-Canadian border...classic...and around a classic time too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 An HM sighting I've been quite intrigued with the upcoming pattern for several days now. Couldn't really ask for a better pattern as far as potential goes. Pattern certainly favors the potential for EML advection into the Northeast, and the GFS does show an EML Sunday/Monday and also the potential for multiple series of MCS activity, especially with warm fronts. That final week of May/first week of June is certainly a time to watch for and it appears that period could deliver. I also like how over the coming days we will be seeing stronger moisture returns across the southeast working northward through the MS/TN/OV regions and eventually into the mid-Atlantic and points north...this is extremely important...if these regions aren't seeing quality moisture (high dews) pretty good chance neither are we. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 An HM sighting I've been quite intrigued with the upcoming pattern for several days now. Couldn't really ask for a better pattern as far as potential goes. Pattern certainly favors the potential for EML advection into the Northeast, and the GFS does show an EML Sunday/Monday and also the potential for multiple series of MCS activity, especially with warm fronts. That final week of May/first week of June is certainly a time to watch for and it appears that period could deliver. I also like how over the coming days we will be seeing stronger moisture returns across the southeast working northward through the MS/TN/OV regions and eventually into the mid-Atlantic and points north...this is extremely important...if these regions aren't seeing quality moisture (high dews) pretty good chance neither are we. Yes, got to get the goods delivered first. Definite potential this weekend as you guys have already elaborated on with a beautiful EML / warm front situation. Next week will become a more widespread thing once the blocking-induced cold pockets start dropping southeast. Should we receive the moisture advection, 1 or even both of those waves next week could bring widespread severe weather from the Midwest to the Northeast. Are we in for a classic 5/31 moderate risk over PA-NY? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Yes, got to get the goods delivered first. Definite potential this weekend as you guys have already elaborated on with a beautiful EML / warm front situation. Next week will become a more widespread thing once the blocking-induced cold pockets start dropping southeast. Should we receive the moisture advection, 1 or even both of those waves next week could bring widespread severe weather from the Midwest to the Northeast. Are we in for a classic 5/31 moderate risk over PA-NY? lol There is just something about 5/31 The period around 5/31 is just out best potential to get the classic conditions for severe wx outbreaks. It's just late enough in the spring to where getting very hot temperatures and high dewpoints is a very realistic possibility and it's still just early enough to where the atmosphere is still transforming from winter to summer...so we can still see strong troughs/strong dynamics along with very good mid-level cold/dry air. As far as Monday goes I'm a little worried about the GFS b/c it's painting dewpoints to be very high, in the 71-75F range...certainly not impossible to get but anytime you see forecasted dews that high you get a little skeptical unless there is strong model support and the source region from where the dewpoint advection is occurring from has similar dews. However, the GFS does have a very nice sfc theta-e ridge over portions of the region with some very good theta-e values...so would have to watch out for dewpoint pooling if that were to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Look what you did HM. Paul could have been 6 feet under and he still would post in this thread from his casket lol. The setup is pretty decent looking hopefully something can come about. Like last week's severe in western MA and NH....7C/km is usually plenty good enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Look what you did HM. Paul could have been 6 feet under and he still would post in this thread from his casket lol. The setup is pretty decent looking hopefully something can come about. Like last week's severe in western MA and NH....7C/km is usually plenty good enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Agreed HM with the pattern. It's going to be an active 7-10 day stretch I think with multiple threats. As you mentioned this is historically a very active time for the northeast so the presence of favorable synoptics is exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 As has been mentioned with several other posts within this thread the upcoming pattern appears quite favorable for multiple convective chances and the upcoming pattern also favors potential for setups which could produce more intense than average convective events across the Northeast. Of course potential isn't everything and a million other things have to fall in place, however, you do have to start off somewhere and no better way to start than with a favorable pattern. Let's get the kick off started with Saturday's convective potential. On Saturday a piece of s/w energy moving along the US/Canadian border across New York State/VT/NH will allow for a weak backdoor cold front to sag southward through northern/central New England. South of this boundary the airmass is expected to be very warm and humid with temperatures ranging from the upper 70's across the higher elevation areas to lower to near mid 80's across the valley areas, especially if there is a great deal of sunshine. Dewpoints are expected to be in the lower to mid 60's. The combination of very warm surface temperatures along with high dewpoints will yield to a marginally unstable airmass. While shear in the lower levels of the troposphere is expected to remain rather weak, which is usually the case with backdoor cold fronts, shear in the mid and upper levels of the troposphere will actually be quite strong thanks in large part to the region being on the crest of a fairly strong mid and upper level ridging. Computer models are forecasting a very strong upper-level jet streak of around 120 knots just north of the US/Canadian border across a chunk of southeastern Canada with upper level jet speeds ranging from 90-100 knots across northern New York and northern New England to 50-60 knots across southern New England. This should yield to a great deal of upper level convergence. The mid-level jet is expected to range anywhere from 30-40 knots south of the frontal boundary leading to vertical shear values of around 25-35 knots. Despite the lack of stronger low-level shear there will be some modest directional shear in place given how the flow in the lower troposphere will be more from the S to SW while as you rise to the mid and upper levels of the troposphere winds will veer more to the W/NW. This could yield to some elevated helicity values. While the combination of forecasted instability/shear appear to be sufficient enough to warrant the development of showers/t'storms as well as the threat for a few strong to possible severe storms there are several other factors, however, to consider here which could work to mitigate the potential. 1) Lack of lowering heights. At this time computer models show very little fall of heights aloft, in fact, if anything heights may somewhat rise. With rising pressure this could really inhibit upward motion and make it a challenge for widespread convection to develop. 2) Timing of front. While we still are several days away and timing of fronts usually doesn't become nailed down until a few days out at this time it appears the front could work into the area early afternoon. If this scenario would to occur this would limit the amount of heating/destabilization that would take place and greatly reduce the threat for strong/severe storms. 3) Backdoor cold fronts also aren't really known for producing much in the way of thunderstorms, especially strong to severe storms. While it certainly isn't impossible you need ample instability along with great mid/upper level support. Very steep lapse rates certainly will help as well along with the development of any meso-low along the boundary. One of the best examples of a backdoor cold front producing severe weather occurred on June 20th, 1995. That setup featured a day with very warm temperatures, high dewpoints, very steep lapse rates, great mid/upper level support along with the development of a meso-low right along the boundary. Being several days away there is still plenty of time to further fine tune the details and watch the trends within the computer models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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