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April 14th, 2012 Plains High Risk


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Remembering the last few seasons long track days morning visuals. Joplin, Tuscaloosa, Springfield Ma, all has similar vis sat sigs. The presentation at the AMWX conference about gravity waves prior to outbreaks was the first time I had heard about it Looks volatile

anyone have an archived satellite image of the gravity waves seen over Oklahoma / Missouri ahead of the outbreak Saturday?

and can someone explain the significance?

EDIT: and incredible pics / movies everyone, keep them coming

From April 1974 Super Outbreak:

"Yet another factor which set the Super Outbreak apart was the well-defined gravity wave or bore which provided a “bonus” third source of organized uplift. This feature helped initiate deep convection in areas that may otherwise have remained capped to development. The bore, in conjunction with daytime heating, also helped rejuvenate existing storms in Georgia and the Carolinas."

From May 14-15 2011 Outbreak (source http://wxbrad.com/ca...utbreak-4162011):

Why are these gravity waves important? Meteorologist Dr. Tim Coleman from the University of Alabama at Huntsville found that they compress the storms causing them to spin faster due to conservation of angular momentum. Think figure skater pulling their arms in and spinning faster. Or playing tether ball as the rope gets smaller the ball spins faster around the pole. Coleman also notes, “There is also wind shear in a gravity wave, and the storm can take that wind shear and tilt it and make even more spin. All of these factors may increase storm rotation, making it more powerful and more likely to produce a tornado.” Dr. Coleman has a model that shows how a gravity wave interacts with a tornado. Notice the increase in vorticity as the gravity wave interacts with the storm.

post-3106-0-36630700-1334615747.png

Finally, the satellite image I was looking for with well-defined gravity waves over Oklahoma (originally posted by Ginx):

post-3106-0-77435600-1334615891.jpg

EDIT: thanks Srain!

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I understand the nuances. Every situation is different. There were almost no basements in Jarrell. (I asked why and was told it was a money issue -- demographics of the wiped-out neighborhood.)

As for Joplin, yeah...except I know of quite a few chasers who evacuated the heck out of Joplin. But true enough, that option wouldn't have been there for everyone in town.

It probably was there for everyone in Jarrell, where I wouldn't have just stood on my porch, frozen in place because some warning text told me to stay home, watching that highly visible, slowly moving thing sliding closer and closer... I would have scrammed.

I know that was sarcasm. There would definitely be traffic problems.

The Joplin tornado dropped down on the western side of the city so there was no time really. It was a very confusing setup with multiple areas of rotation. It was wrapped in rain pretty quickly. Joplin is a "Tree City USA", it's difficult to see anything due to all the large trees. (of course we now have a 'cleared' corridor where the tornado passed through) Even if a tornado was on the ground in SE Kansas or NE Oklahoma headed this way, it would still be difficult to see inside the city itself but easier to see on the northern and western side due to a less forested area. Joplin is expanding to the south, and will expand even more due to the construction of the hospital farther south. There are really dense forested areas to the south too. :-\

It would be great if the public had multiple procedures in place for differing circumstances (i.e., take shelter, evacuate, etc.). Right now we are having problems even getting individuals to take the warning seriously to begin with. In a perfect world, I could see instances where evacuation was a possible solution, but a large majority of the time that just can't happen. Given the two options, it seems better to preach shelter. Unfortunately there will be those freak EF-5s where absolutely nothing can be done, but a majority of the time, taking shelter in a safe place is going to save more lives than any other option.

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I was one of them haha. Yeah first tornado, I was a tad excited.

We were on the supercell when it was cycling/putting out occasional small ropes near Salina and the Solomon stovepipe tornado. I had never seen a tornado in my life, so I was just a bit excited too.

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Hey guys, first post...I just found out about this place chasing on Saturday when my chase partner filled me in...

This was just to the south, southwest of Mooreland at about 4:30 or so. Primary area of rotation wayy off in the distance probably 3 miles away.

IMG7493-L.jpg

This area of rotation developed right in front of us as the original area became pretty disorganized.

IMG7500-L.jpg

We quickly headed north

IMG7521-L.jpg

Broad area of rotation as it crossed the road south of Mooreland a mile or two.

IMG7523-L.jpg

The second storm that moved through the area within an hour that went on to become the big Wichita storm...

Broad area of rotation but it was rapidly rotating

IMG7537-L.jpg

IMG7562-L.jpg

IMG7619-L.jpg

I'm sure you guys have seen a thousand of these SW of Cherokee

IMG7629-2-L.jpg

IMG7629-L.jpg

Redeveloping over Cherokee

IMG7671-L.jpg

And a youtube vid...this was probably 10 minutes later and it was quite dark...the camera did a good job bringing out the available light. Shortly after I filmed this we had it backlit by lightning one more time and it was quite wide bordering on wedge...then OHP shut the road down due to debris and our chase ended.

We had major problems getting data/radar updates for gibson ridge and pulling up SPC in NW OK on Saturday. At one point we were 93 minutes without a radar update. We did manage to get a few updates from radarscope via phone but otherwise not much. Thankfully we were both experienced and had a general idea of what we were doing.

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We had major problems getting data/radar updates for gibson ridge and pulling up SPC in NW OK on Saturday. At one point we were 93 minutes without a radar update. We did manage to get a few updates from radarscope via phone but otherwise not much. Thankfully we were both experienced and had a general idea of what we were doing.

Let me guess... You were on Verizon and had a signal most of the time, but wouldn't connect. You're not the only one who had that issue. The moment I crossed a highway further east or hit the Kansas line, I had no issues connecting.

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Let me guess... You were on Verizon and had a signal most of the time, but wouldn't connect. You're not the only one who had that issue. The moment I crossed a highway further east or hit the Kansas line, I had no issues connecting.

We were on Verizon. But I talked to a couple friends, one used Sprint the other ATT and both had big time data issues that day...I think it was all the traffic coupled with the fact that Pioneer Cellular hasn't switched on Verizons data service yet in NW OK.

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The evac thing is a bad idea as a general practice. But if you have a reasonable understanding of meteorology and geography (which most people probably don't) then it makes some sense in certain situations.

Glad my post about the KS family fleeing stirred up the conversation about evacuation - which I'll go out on a limb and state is really only a decent option with rural, flat locations with a road network and limited trees. But - driving west for four hours the day a high risk is issued is another evac. strategy!

On another note - I'm all for the 'helmet' cause that seems to be generating some interest from the MSM - specifically TWC. A month or so ago, I called my mom from Denver to warn her on an approaching confirmed TOG in Cobb County Georgia - hook echo was tracking right at her house! It weakened to a an EF-1 or EF-0 (from the prior EF-3 in Paulding)...but...

I kept her in the loop the 30 minutes prior to the minute prior (missed her by 1/2 mile), and when we first talked she said "Don't worry - I'm in the basement, I've got my flashlight and weather radio, and I'm wearing my helmet."

Mom gets it.

I'm increasingly more worried with dangerous tornadoes in the south due to extremely large pine trees. Big pines cause an insane amount of damage once uprooted, and they're 2-3 ton missiles that roll, get propelled - it's just terrifying to think about.

If you look at the Ringold tornado damage from 4/27 - it's just insane. I can't imagine 100 or so full or partial pine trees rolling along the ground wiping out everything... it's nuts.

Cars,trees and roofs look like they do a ton of damage to other objects after being hit by a large EF-4, EF-5 tornado.

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It would be great if the public had multiple procedures in place for differing circumstances (i.e., take shelter, evacuate, etc.). Right now we are having problems even getting individuals to take the warning seriously to begin with. In a perfect world, I could see instances where evacuation was a possible solution, but a large majority of the time that just can't happen. Given the two options, it seems better to preach shelter. Unfortunately there will be those freak EF-5s where absolutely nothing can be done, but a majority of the time, taking shelter in a safe place is going to save more lives than any other option.

I never thought wording would do the trick - but some of the stuff from the Wichita TOR wording text was SPOT on.

Scared the hell out of me in Denver, Colorado - that's for sure.

I imagine it would scare the public too as it scrolls across the bottom of their TV. I mean - that language modification was an outstanding call and the enhanced wording is surely going to make some more folks sit up and take notice.

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But - driving west for four hours the day a high risk is issued is another evac. strategy!

I know several people from this area who were going to drive east about an hour and a half to Springfield, MO because while Joplin was on the edge of the moderate hatched risk area, Springfield wasn't.

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I never thought wording would do the trick - but some of the stuff from the Wichita TOR wording text was SPOT on.

Scared the hell out of me in Denver, Colorado - that's for sure.

I imagine it would scare the public too as it scrolls across the bottom of their TV. I mean - that language modification was an outstanding call and the enhanced wording is surely going to make some more folks sit up and take notice.

Was it? While there was spotty EF2/EF3 damage on the southeast side of Wichita most of the damage was EF0/EF1 from what I understand.

Seems like many of the statements below did not come to fruition. This is the problem with tornado emergencies... there can be false alarms and in fact there was an earlier tornado emergency for Conway Springs and the town was missed.

BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS

ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS

1027 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR…

WEST CENTRAL BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS…

EASTERN SEDGWICK COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS…

* UNTIL 1100 PM CDT

* AT 1019 PM CDT…TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR THE WICHITA METRO AREA. A

CONFIRMED LARGE…VIOLENT AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS

LOCATED NEAR HAYSVILLE…AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

HAZARD…DEADLY TORNADO.

SOURCE…RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT…THIS IS A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. YOU COULD BE KILLED

IF NOT UNDERGROUND OR IN A TORNADO SHELTER. COMPLETE

DESTRUCTION OF ENTIRE NEIGHBORHOODS IS LIKELY. MANY WELL

BUILT HOMES AND BUSINESSES WILL BE COMPLETELY SWEPT FROM

THEIR FOUNDATIONS. DEBRIS WILL BLOCK MOST ROADWAYS. MASS

DEVASTATION IS HIGHLY LIKELY MAKING THE AREA

UNRECOGNIZABLE TO SURVIVORS.

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Was it? While there was spotty EF2/EF3 damage on the southeast side of Wichita most of the damage was EF0/EF1 from what I understand.

Seems like many of the statements below did not come to fruition. This is the problem with tornado emergencies... there can be false alarms and in fact there was an earlier tornado emergency for Conway Springs and the town was missed.

BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS

ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS

1027 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR…

WEST CENTRAL BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS…

EASTERN SEDGWICK COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS…

* UNTIL 1100 PM CDT

* AT 1019 PM CDT…TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR THE WICHITA METRO AREA. A

CONFIRMED LARGE…VIOLENT AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS

LOCATED NEAR HAYSVILLE…AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

HAZARD…DEADLY TORNADO.

SOURCE…RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT…THIS IS A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. YOU COULD BE KILLED

IF NOT UNDERGROUND OR IN A TORNADO SHELTER. COMPLETE

DESTRUCTION OF ENTIRE NEIGHBORHOODS IS LIKELY. MANY WELL

BUILT HOMES AND BUSINESSES WILL BE COMPLETELY SWEPT FROM

THEIR FOUNDATIONS. DEBRIS WILL BLOCK MOST ROADWAYS. MASS

DEVASTATION IS HIGHLY LIKELY MAKING THE AREA

UNRECOGNIZABLE TO SURVIVORS.

While it didn't meet the technical "violent tornado" threshold that most seem to have, the public doesn't know this. For most people in the public, any tornado that causes enough damage to render a business inoperable or even mobile homes uninhabitable would be viewed as violent.

I'd be interested in finding out if the impact wording got those folks in the mobile home park to seek shelter. They all survived, there were no deaths.

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Gravity waves...

The Gravity Wave:

Was it a necessary component?

Strong to severe thunderstorms developed over eastern Oklahoma on the evening of May 26th. Those storms evolved into a large convective complex that moved into western Arkansas during the overnight hours. Before sunrise, the storm complex began to collapse, generating one or more gravity waves. One wave propagated southwestward across northeastern Texas, reaching central Texas before midday. More than one meteorologist investigating this event proposed that the gravity wave was involved in either storm initiation or storm motion. Among other issues, it was suggested that convective initiation occurred very early in the day considering the capping inversion found in the morning soundings. Corfidi (Preprints, 19th SLS, 1998) suggested that the motion of the low-level pressure perturbation field associated with the gravity wave favored new updraft development on the southwest side of the cell … permitting the original updraft to replicate itself southwestward in nearly continuous fashion. On the other hand, Purdom & Motta (Appendix B, NOAA Service Assessment, 1997) examined satellite imagery and concluded that the gravity wave may have played a role in the initiation of the storm complex … (but) that gravity wave moved south of the storm complex before the beginning of tornado activity. We will return to this issue later.

...

Our Findings

>The gravity wave may have aided in preconditioning the incipient storm environment, but was not a necessary component of initiation of this storm system. Moisture convergence over the area had been persistent and pronounced for more than 24 hours prior to the event as evidenced by the mixing ratio at 925hPa: ~18g/Kg near FTW at 0Z on the 27th, ~16g/Kg near ACT at 12Z on the 27th, and ~18g/Kg near DRT at 0Z on the 28th.

post-138-0-74861900-1334677759.gif

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We were on the supercell when it was cycling/putting out occasional small ropes near Salina and the Solomon stovepipe tornado. I had never seen a tornado in my life, so I was just a bit excited too.

I was on that one too. We based in Lindsborg at first and could see the wedge from there when it was at Marquette. We then moved North to Assairia and took video with it cycling. After that, my group decided to punch East and then North where we got the photo that I took from just South of Solomon.

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Holy crap. That satellite loop is fascinating. You can see those features very clearly.

The Jarrell tornado was fearsome indeed. And very off-topic, someone on Youtube has posted the extended version of a famous video from the Cedar Park F3 of that day, an extension I didn't even know existed.

Thought some of you might find it interesting.

AND NOW! Back to your regularly scheduled April 14 2012 outbreak discussion!

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I was on that one too. We based in Lindsborg at first and could see the wedge from there when it was at Marquette. We then moved North to Assairia and took video with it cycling. After that, my group decided to punch East and then North where we got the photo that I took from just South of Solomon.

I think we might've been right near you when you saw the wedge, we got off I-135 at the Marquette exit and pulled over where there were a bunch of chasers parked by a field. The guy chasing for the Salina radio station actually pulled up and said we shouldn't be there, and we left. We probably should've stayed and might have been a minute or two from seeing the wedge. Then when we saw the Solomon tornado we were south of I-70 probably could've gotten a lot closer, but still got some nice photos and video since there's no view obstructions.

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I think we might've been right near you when you saw the wedge, we got off I-135 at the Marquette exit and pulled over where there were a bunch of chasers parked by a field. The guy chasing for the Salina radio station actually pulled up and said we shouldn't be there, and we left. We probably should've stayed and might have been a minute or two from seeing the wedge. Then when we saw the Solomon tornado we were south of I-70 probably could've gotten a lot closer, but still got some nice photos and video since there's no view obstructions.

I agree. We were on the side of the road next to an old shack and I remember the Salina radio guy telling us about the storm. A fellow STL Chase Tour group was with us and posted this

.
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Was it? While there was spotty EF2/EF3 damage on the southeast side of Wichita most of the damage was EF0/EF1 from what I understand.

Seems like many of the statements below did not come to fruition. This is the problem with tornado emergencies... there can be false alarms and in fact there was an earlier tornado emergency for Conway Springs and the town was missed.

BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS

ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS

1027 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR…

WEST CENTRAL BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS…

EASTERN SEDGWICK COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS…

* UNTIL 1100 PM CDT

* AT 1019 PM CDT…TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR THE WICHITA METRO AREA. A

CONFIRMED LARGE…VIOLENT AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS

LOCATED NEAR HAYSVILLE…AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

HAZARD…DEADLY TORNADO.

SOURCE…RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT…THIS IS A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. YOU COULD BE KILLED

IF NOT UNDERGROUND OR IN A TORNADO SHELTER. COMPLETE

DESTRUCTION OF ENTIRE NEIGHBORHOODS IS LIKELY. MANY WELL

BUILT HOMES AND BUSINESSES WILL BE COMPLETELY SWEPT FROM

THEIR FOUNDATIONS. DEBRIS WILL BLOCK MOST ROADWAYS. MASS

DEVASTATION IS HIGHLY LIKELY MAKING THE AREA

UNRECOGNIZABLE TO SURVIVORS.

CT - We don't know yet what makes a storm that does EF-2/EF-3 damage evolve into an EF-5 storm.

We can't deny that there was a chance this storm could have intensified to a storm that was more powerful on the EF scale.

To me - that's what the enhanced wording does. While the above description DOES describe the the carnage of the Joplin tornado last year (an EF-5 tornado)...

It also describes the damage from the Tuscaloosa tornado from last year (an EF-4 tornado) and the Ringgold, Georgia tornado (an EF-4 tornado). So, it's logical to say this could have intensified to at least an EF-4 tornado.

I think the wording was perfect for the Wichita tornado.

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CT - We don't know yet what makes a storm that does EF-2/EF-3 damage evolve into an EF-5 storm.

We can't deny that there was a chance this storm could have intensified to a storm that was more powerful on the EF scale.

To me - that's what the enhanced wording does. While the above description DOES describe the the carnage of the Joplin tornado last year (an EF-5 tornado)...

It also describes the damage from the Tuscaloosa tornado from last year (an EF-4 tornado) and the Ringgold, Georgia tornado (an EF-4 tornado). So, it's logical to say this could have intensified to at least an EF-4 tornado.

I think the wording was perfect for the Wichita tornado.

To add to this, heard that the Sedgwick Co or City of Wichita EM highlighted 2 aspects that contributed to there being no fatalities in the tornado:1) the Kansas law requiring mobile home parks to have underground shelters, which saved the lives of many of the people in the destroyed mobile home park on the south side of Wichita. And 2) the enhanced wording in the warnings in this case really got people to respond. So although the damage clearly wasn't as catastrophic as Joplin, an EF3 in such a populated area still could've resulted in many fatalities and injuries. So I agree, the wording was appropriate and likely saved lives.

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Gravity waves...

Wow. Did the Jarrell storm travel southwestward for several hundred miles?

I did not notice any problems with using the SPC web page or the regular NOAA data feed for GRLevel3, the whole time. That's actually kind of incredible.

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A minor adjustment I would like to see for the Tiered Warning System would be to

allow the "Significant" tag, or Tier II alert to allow for the use of "Tornado Emergency"

when a strong, but not extremely violent, tornado is heading into a populated area...as

opposed to only using the Emergency wording for a "Catastrophic" tag, or Tier III alert.

The main goal, of course, for the national weather service is to safeguard life and

property (especially life). That goal was met in SE Wichita, even if the damage was

not quite at Tier III criteria. An example of what would have been an interesting case

is West Liberty Ky. They suffered a little less than "Catastrophic" damage (lower EF3),

but the residents in interviews certainly made it sound like "the town was unrecognizable

to the survivors" and that "they could have been killed if not underground". I believe

that even though the tornado itself fit the Significant Tier II category, that the tornado

emergency issued was very much warranted because of what happened to the entire

town. Also, I would have been interested to see what Dallas/Fort Worth would have done

on the Tiered System for the DFW tornadoes. None where catastrophic, but most were

life-threatening. Everyone survived there as well, with credit to the NWS office given.

In other words, it's largely the public's perception of danger to themselves and families

that counts. As long as they can receive the strong-wording from a source of easy

accessibilty in a timely fashion, and then act appropiately, then a lot of human toll

could be avoided, as we saw in SE Wichita.

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To add to this, heard that the Sedgwick Co or City of Wichita EM highlighted 2 aspects that contributed to there being no fatalities in the tornado:1) the Kansas law requiring mobile home parks to have underground shelters, which saved the lives of many of the people in the destroyed mobile home park on the south side of Wichita. And 2) the enhanced wording in the warnings in this case really got people to respond. So although the damage clearly wasn't as catastrophic as Joplin, an EF3 in such a populated area still could've resulted in many fatalities and injuries. So I agree, the wording was appropriate and likely saved lives.

It will be interesting to evaluate the tiered warning system as time goes by. I think there are some potential drawbacks but maybe not enough to outweigh the benefits. We're still going to be vulnerable in situations where a tornado rapidly strengthens in populated areas (a la Joplin) but hopefully those don't come around very often.

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The base is spinning very fast, thats usually how you can get some idea how strong they are, that thing looks like an EF5 on the current scale but probably a strong F3 or weak F4 on the old scale, had it been a 5 the pavement on that road should have been stripped.

I'm assuming this is tongue in cheek, but it provides a good opportunity for me to harp on one of my hang ups. The EF scale is a damage scale that helps to estimate wind speeds. Despite the upgrade from the F scale to the EF scale, damage done by tornadoes has not changed, just the expected wind speeds to cause the damage. So an F4 before the switch produced F4 damage and we thought it took much stronger winds to produce that damage. Now we now it is actually lower wind speeds that can cause F4 damage, which is where the EF scale comes into play. An EF4 tornado still produces F4 damage, it is just that we were likely overestimating wind speeds with the original scale. This means that past tornadoes were no stronger than corresponding recent tornadoes within the same rating (i.e. F2 to EF2).

Not a perfect system, but without direct measurements of tornadoes it is the best we can do.

Edit: I should say that we were overestimating wind speeds needed to cause damage, not the tornadic wind speeds themselves. If it doesn't produce damage or remains confined to trees, it is pretty hard to come up with an accurate rating.

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Another hang up of mine that I saw a lot of discussion about is outdoor warning sirens. I say outdoor warning sirens because they are designed to warn those outdoors of potential danger. The fact that Woodward's were rendered inoperable due to lightning is unfortunate, but only for the relatively few people who may have been outdoors at midnight. If people were planning on being awaken by the sirens that night, then their severe weather preparedness failed before they went to bed. If you are indoors you should have an alternative method for getting your severe weather information (preferably NOAA Weather Radio).

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