CoastalWx Posted April 17, 2012 Author Share Posted April 17, 2012 SNE too, but not as much with broad Sly flow keeping best forcing to the west... but extrapolating, it'll soak in SNE too. Yeah it gets WCB type stuff into here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 Tons of energy diving into this negatively tilted trough so it is not going anywhere fast. Sory brian123456 Long duration event it seems... these are fun systems to track... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 GFS thru 138 extrapolates to a soaker... details will change from run to run but overall pattern screams widespread drought busting rains. Nice, if I post about anything it's a fetish according to Ryan. Let's get the record straight, I called CLP out on Irene's response, he poo pooed my concerns until he lost power in the Halloween storm, then all of a sudden hmm maybe I was right after all. He confronted the CEO and made national news doing so. Media types, so behind the eight ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 17, 2012 Author Share Posted April 17, 2012 Long duration event it seems... these are fun systems to track... It's going to change locations I'm sure, but someone in the northeast appears close to signaling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 17, 2012 Author Share Posted April 17, 2012 Wow, 5"+ on the GFS in spots of NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 Yeah it gets WCB type stuff into here. Yeah, you're right about climo with this track verbatim... but these typically get the WNE uplands pretty good for a while before translating to the East... I used to live in Boston and am quite familiar with heavy rains for seemingly days W of like BDL with these S flow systems before it slowly chugs east... less QPF and usually falls over much shorter duration. But, for those looking to get rain, no one seems to get screwed from this. It's one juicy ass system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 17, 2012 Author Share Posted April 17, 2012 Yeah, you're right about climo with this track verbatim... but these typically get the WNE uplands pretty good for a while before translating to the East... I used to live in Boston and am quite familiar with heavy rains for seemingly days W of like BDL with these S flow systems before it slowly chugs east... less QPF and usually falls over much shorter duration. But, for those looking to get rain, no one seems to get screwed from this. It's one juicy ass system. Yeah absolutely. Euro was much farther east, but the GFS looks more like the euro ensembles. I like a good heavy rain event. There are always mesoscale aspects of these systems with deep negatively tilted troughs like upslope or small scale convergence that enhances rains. Hopefully this doesn't go too far west and leaves us with less than a half inch, but if that trough closes off sooner or further sw..it may just prolong the rain over SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 It's going to change locations I'm sure, but someone in the northeast appears close to signaling. Ever notice the resemblance between Ryan and Eddie Munster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 86 in my office, like a sauna. No breeze FTL and no air conditioner ready FTL. we will likely never see anything like this again. It's just not normal. I bet you will next April. The last time Plymouth MA didn't hit 80 at least once in April was in 2000. It's a lot more unusual for the Cape to reach 80 this early, but not completely unheard of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 17, 2012 Author Share Posted April 17, 2012 Ever notice the resemblance between Ryan and Eddie Munster? LOL, you nut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 lol at the gfs thats a drought buster for sure.. maybe even some snow higher up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 I bet you will next April. The last time Plymouth MA didn't hit 80 at least once in April was in 2000. It's a lot more unusual for the Cape to reach 80 this early, but not completely unheard of. Yeah but it's not the random warm days that always happen...it's the wall to wall torch really for 6-7 months now. I mean it's just incredible how many +20 days there have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 Yeah these trees are much less green in the burbs. Ironically... just this morning the giant broad green leaf maple next to my house had burst open.. .What's interesting is that it went right to leaf out with no flowers. Last year it had flowers. I wonder if the screwy climo this year is doing that... DGEX from 06z offered up a huge elevation blue snow bomb for the Berks/Greens /whites, with silvery catspaw accumulations on car tops for the lower els. UKMET extrapolation wasn't much different. And so the Euro was cold at 850mb in those regions, too - We haven't had ...pretty much any success phasing anything in months and months and months, but heh, there's still time to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 17, 2012 Author Share Posted April 17, 2012 Ironically... just this morning the giant broad green leaf maple next to my house had burst open.. .What's interesting is that it went right to leaf out with no flowers. Last year it had flowers. I wonder if the screwy climo this year is doing that... DGEX from 06z offered up a huge elevation blue snow bomb for the Berks/Greens /whites, with silvery catspaw accumulations on car tops for the lower els. UKMET extrapolation wasn't much different. And so the Euro was cold at 850mb in those regions, too - We haven't had ...pretty much any success phasing anything in months and months and months, but heh, there's still time to do that. Pretty good consensus on a closed low right now, phased too. Just a matter of exactly where this tracks and closes off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 17, 2012 Author Share Posted April 17, 2012 84 at PYM and MVY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 17, 2012 Author Share Posted April 17, 2012 Another day in the low 80s for many, especially ern areas. Maybe 83-85 for some? Looks like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 17, 2012 Author Share Posted April 17, 2012 Surprised forecasts had like 79 or 80 today for the high in ern areas. Classic post front and remnant warm airmass torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 Wow that 12z GFS is disgusting...3-6" widespread rain over 3 days, ending as a foot of snow Adirondacks, Greens, Berks at the higher elevations. That time around hour 174-186 is another massive upslope assisted with deformation crushing blue snow for the Green MTN Spine down into the Berks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 GFS is a soaker for parts of the MA into western and NNE. weekend plan to Waterville Valley fail or does the rain hold off at least most of Saturday ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 wow..lots of rain on the GFS.. sucks for this weekend was planning on driving up north with the family. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 17, 2012 Author Share Posted April 17, 2012 weekend plan to Waterville Valley fail or does the rain hold off at least most of Saturday ? Looks like rainy Saturday possibly as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 Wow that 12z GFS is disgusting...3-6" widespread rain over 3 days, ending as a foot of snow Adirondacks, Greens, Berks at the higher elevations. That time around hour 174-186 is another massive upslope assisted with deformation crushing blue snow for the Green MTN Spine down into the Berks. We're not done yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 We're not done yet. Your 2k worksite would be white if that pans out. The synoptics of that 12z GFS would lead to some obscene QPF totals...first on the SE flow into the Whites, then the long duration west to northwest flow of anomalously moist air into the Greens, Berks, and Taconics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 Always fun to see how fast the rivers run following prolonged heavy rain on the heels of a dry spell. The fact that this is long-duration is a real boon to moistening up the soil. Lots of time to soak in after the initial run-off. Nice day. 66/31, snug in my shawl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 17, 2012 Author Share Posted April 17, 2012 LOL 86 for the high at MVY. Torch award of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 17, 2012 Author Share Posted April 17, 2012 86 in TAN too for the high. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 LOL 86 for the high at MVY. Torch award of the day. Yowza! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 Ever notice the resemblance between Ryan and Eddie Munster? Hahahahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 Just took a walk break....beautifully blazing but comfy day with 80s/30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 17, 2012 Author Share Posted April 17, 2012 But anyways getting back to this weekend, it's all about timing with the phase. If the nrn stream is too quick or srn stream too slow...then it won't be a ton of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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