JamieOber Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Looks like some of the energy misses the phase on the GFS Ya GFS bias probably at work again. If euro hold and looks like NAM it is game on big time. Even still, we get lots of snow showers around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 I want to say hi to all of the Central PA group. I have been a lurker for a while now. I think it's great that there is a place that I can discuss the weather with other weather lovers. I have always been fascinated by the weather ever since I was young. I was born during a huge ice storm and my parents weren't thrilled to have to travel to Johnstown with the roads covered in ice. Here's to snow for everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 I want to say hi to all of the Central PA group. I have been a lurker for a while now. I think it's great that there is a place that I can discuss the weather with other weather lovers. I have always been fascinated by the weather ever since I was young. I was born during a huge ice storm and my parents weren't thrilled to have to travel to Johnstown with the roads covered in ice. Here's to snow for everyone! Welcome aboard..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 OK. Serious question here. If the actual track of the low were to shift east of where the NAM is currently placing it, would that simply move the snow potential farther east, or would it totally change the dynamics of the system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 It's a good question...honestly I would assume that would mean it's weaker, less phased the further east it went. Therefore, less cold air drawn in?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Everything for you guys depends on where the phase takes place. If it's further south over the Carolinas like the NAM, the storm will blow up, pivot NNW, and develop a crushing snow band over many of you guys. The snow would linger as the low occludes, and it would accompnay strong wind. Valleys obviously would be a mix or rain. If the phase occurs later, the low would take a more easterly track, and the cold conveyor belt banding won't develop probably until the low's already gone. There would be a period of moderate rain or mixing in the high elevations, but not a big impact west of I-81, essentially it would be a strung out storm. You really need the phase to happen as soon as possible for the low to mature quick enough to develop the comma head and build NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted April 20, 2012 Author Share Posted April 20, 2012 I can't just help but look at these computer models and laugh. As insane and downright anomalous as this would be, we probably shouldn't be surprised... Mother nature was going to have some major retribution for an entire march of 70+. This could be a major event for the Laurels, as the low cuts in NNW and sets the deform onto generally the western half of PA as per the models in addition to the enhancement they would get from upsloping. Elevation will obviously be a key factor with who sees what, but central PA could be more heavily involved accum wise if we get more precip during the night. Also, did anyone look after this storm on the 0z Euro?? Not one but two systems (hr156 and hr198) that dive down from Canada and deliver at least what would be considered in the mid winter time a couple of moderate snowfalls... esp for the northern half of PA. Sub 540 the rest of the way through 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 crazy to think about this in April... but Lake Erie surface temps are in the upper 40s and if wind direction and strength are ideal, this could also enhance the snow threat with 850 temps below 0... with as much moisture as this has it would be sweet to see somewhere get hit with a heavy heavy lake effect band in late april!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 12z EURO goes the GFS route from what I hear. Figures, the second I get a look at a nice storm, it quickly falls apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 BOO!!! I wanted an interesting weather weekend...now looking like typical .75 inches of rain and bleh lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 UNV euro: MON 00Z 23-APR 4.4 0.1 1008 95 87 0.21 551 545 MON 06Z 23-APR 2.7 -1.2 1003 98 98 0.21 547 544 MON 12Z 23-APR 1.4 -4.1 1000 97 100 0.22 540 540 MON 18Z 23-APR 1.6 -5.4 999 88 97 0.22 535 536 TUE 00Z 24-APR 0.9 -5.1 1000 90 99 0.11 533 532 TUE 06Z 24-APR 0.9 -4.7 999 92 97 0.08 531 531 TUE 12Z 24-APR 2.0 -3.9 1000 81 90 0.08 532 532 TUE 18Z 24-APR 8.7 -0.6 1001 41 13 0.01 536 535 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 I can't just help but look at these computer models and laugh. As insane and downright anomalous as this would be, we probably shouldn't be surprised... Mother nature was going to have some major retribution for an entire march of 70+. This could be a major event for the Laurels, as the low cuts in NNW and sets the deform onto generally the western half of PA as per the models in addition to the enhancement they would get from upsloping. Elevation will obviously be a key factor with who sees what, but central PA could be more heavily involved accum wise if we get more precip during the night. Also, did anyone look after this storm on the 0z Euro?? Not one but two systems (hr156 and hr198) that dive down from Canada and deliver at least what would be considered in the mid winter time a couple of moderate snowfalls... esp for the northern half of PA. Sub 540 the rest of the way through 240. Euro still seems to have second storms and pretty cold throughout for this time of year. Nothing like today on that run, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 I'm all for the Euro and GFS solutions (I like the UKMET even more). Further east = more room to pull back west as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 12z EURO goes the GFS route from what I hear. Figures, the second I get a look at a nice storm, it quickly falls apart. All models are pretty much on board for something significant. Operational and ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irvingtwosmokes Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Tony, Josh had a pretty good WTF look at noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 HPC Update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Tony, Josh had a pretty good WTF look at noon. lol. what do you mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 HPC Update dont forget this one as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 All models are pretty much on board for something significant. Operational and ensembles. whats your gut feeling right now for this potential storm tony? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irvingtwosmokes Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 lol. what do you mean? I can't believe what the models are showing kind of look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 I can't believe what the models are showing kind of look. haha. I know. It's Halloween weekend part 2! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 whats your gut feeling right now for this potential storm tony? My gut is for a high-end advisory event along the 219 counties, with up to 3 inches as far west as 119, and as far east as I-99. If this were two months ago, double or triple that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 whats your gut feeling right now for this potential storm tony? This is really a dynamic storm. What may add to the totals is the strength and position and speed of the 500 low. Slower and stronger and further south (uk/jma/gfsens), and we're cranking out the snow. Even though the 12 euro was a bit weaker and a bit east of 0z, it still prints out about an inch of liquid along the 219 corridor. The precip rates have to be steady and quick, and much of it needs to fall Sunday night to pile up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irvingtwosmokes Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 This is really a dynamic storm. What may add to the totals is the strength and position and speed of the 500 low. Slower and stronger and further south (uk/jma/gfsens), and we're cranking out the snow. Even though the 12 euro was a bit weaker and a bit east of 0z, it still prints out about an inch of liquid along the 219 corridor. The precip rates have to be steady and quick, and much of it needs to fall Sunday night to pile up. I was going to ask you if this was going to be a nighttime or daytime event. I know sun angle will kill the chance a large accumilation if daytime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 This is really a dynamic storm. What may add to the totals is the strength and position and speed of the 500 low. Slower and stronger and further south (uk/jma/gfsens), and we're cranking out the snow. Even though the 12 euro was a bit weaker and a bit east of 0z, it still prints out about an inch of liquid along the 219 corridor. The precip rates have to be steady and quick, and much of it needs to fall Sunday night to pile up. Yeah, gotta get that initial layer of snow. That, from my experience, is vital for late/early season snow to accumulate. Once you get that, the ground more or less "becomes" 32 degrees, and the snow lays on the snow and starts to accumulate. Best shot for that seems to be Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Timing wise, when will the precip reach MDT? I can't tell that too well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Timing wise, when will the precip reach MDT? I can't tell that too well. Nam is predicting around dinnertime, if I'm reading the chart correctly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 I was thinking 6-8, so that seems to match your thinking. Trying to get a crap load of flowers and bushes and groundcover planted tomorrow, so the longer it holds off the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Sorry at work all day and no updates. Hahahaha spring break to Potter C would be funny indeed! I'm actually planning on still storm chasing this sucker. I want to go either to Bradford, PA or central potter where the best elevation for the area is. It is just going to depend on where the exact storm path and details end up being before I decide on a location to choose. I'm thinking more of a 2-5" variety snowfall, but that is just because of the recent 12Z runs have me a little paranoid, still a great hit, but def less than the earlier runs. I'm going to wait until the 00z and 06z runs before getting to super excited. LOL I saw the bulls-eye hit right over my house on a few of those maps :) I'm not going to complain whatever this storm does decide to do, but flakes at this time of the year is enough to cheer about. Although a biggggg part of me really wants that 8"+ massive storm still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Welcome aboard..... Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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