Laurel Highlands Wx Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 My gut is for a high-end advisory event along the 219 counties, with up to 3 inches as far west as 119, and as far east as I-99. If this were two months ago, double or triple that! I agree. Elevation will be a huge factor. This looks like one of those classic elevation storms. Places like Cresson and Ebensburg should do fairly well. I expect about 2 or 3 inches in Northern Cambria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Ya i'd hit that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Ya i'd hit that. Please explain the mechanics, I'm having trouble figuring out how it would work out, being a digital map and all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Please explain the mechanics, I'm having trouble figuring out how it would work out, being a digital map and all :lmao: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Zak's my hero! Thanks man, gladly take my 8"+ bullseye and run to the hills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted April 21, 2012 Author Share Posted April 21, 2012 The October 29th storm was the first and practically only widespread snowfall from the season for all of us in here, but it wasn't the overall first snow of the last winter for some. If the Laurels cash in on this weekend event, which is looking pretty probable at the moment, theyre going to range from October 2nd to April 23rd with first and last snows. That's almost a 7 month range...just crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 I'm wondering if the GFS, Euro come in tonight full balls to the wall. Would be awesome to go to bed with a massive sub 980mb storm producing 12-16" of snow, hey a guy could dream right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 NAM looks a little weaker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 NAM looks a little weaker? Yep, doesn't phase completely either. When it does phase, it phases a little later and the heavy snow axis looks to be shifted slightly to the north on this run Don't get me wrong, it is still showing a decent hit for this year, but not the mega bomb I was hoping for. Nice 3-5" according to this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Gfs is pretty decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Gfs is pretty decent Decent? Kinda major disappointment from 12z runs. Total precip only around an 1" liquid for our area....and best 12-hour period of precip with sub zero 850s is from 8am to 8pm monDAY. Guess we might see some flakes in the air at least which would be nice. You young'ins weren't even born yet but I remember nicely another very late season snowfall that hit PHL way back in 1986 almost exactly to the day as this event. It was around the 23rd of April and I had four weeks until graduation from Optometry school. For those of you who think that it cannot snow during the daylight hours in late April in the PHL area....think again! It snowed all day long that day but did not accumulate. Finally, after sunset the snow continued and temps slowly sank down close to 32. I remember late that evening staring out my dorm window in amazement at the snowfall and how the ground was slowly turning white. When it was over we had right around 2" on the ground the following morning! So, one can hope. I have no idea what type of a storm system produced that late April snow in philly because I don't think there was much in the way of wind, but I'm sure someone could go back into the archives and look at a reanalysis of that storm. If I'm not mistaken I think northwestern NJ picked up a foot of snow from that event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Ya looks bleh precip way too light most of storm.. but it is late april so oh well lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Guess it depends on where you are. I enjoyed the 00z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Decent? Kinda major disappointment from 12z runs. Total precip only around an 1" liquid for our area....and best 12-hour period of precip with sub zero 850s is from 8am to 8pm monDAY. Guess we might see some flakes in the air at least which would be nice. You young'ins weren't even born yet but I remember nicely another very late season snowfall that hit PHL way back in 1986 almost exactly to the day as this event. It was around the 23rd of April and I had four weeks until graduation from Optometry school. For those of you who think that it cannot snow during the daylight hours in late April in the PHL area....think again! It snowed all day long that day but did not accumulate. Finally, after sunset the snow continued and temps slowly sank down close to 32. I remember late that evening staring out my dorm window in amazement at the snowfall and how the ground was slowly turning white. When it was over we had right around 2" on the ground the following morning! So, one can hope. I have no idea what type of a storm system produced that late April snow in philly because I don't think there was much in the way of wind, but I'm sure someone could go back into the archives and look at a reanalysis of that storm. If I'm not mistaken I think northwestern NJ picked up a foot of snow from that event. Output puts 3" here. So i'd take it, even an inch. We all new no huge storm was actually coming. Just how it goes. It will continue to change up to the event anyways still got 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Sorry guys, I jinxed it -- the second I made a post on it, we went from a big-time storm to a rather garden variety event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Anyone see the CMC? BOOM and the Hi res nam is way better than normal nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 lol its the CMC. Le Sigh ohhh well no mega bomb on this run, hopefully the rates will be good enough to accumulate, tough to say now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 lol its the CMC. Le Sigh ohhh well no mega bomb on this run, hopefully the rates will be good enough to accumulate, tough to say now. HI RES NAM likes the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Yeah Zac, the NAM is still a really good hit. I will be happy regardless, just to see flakes I was getting selfish and hoping for mega bomb haha and didn't get it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Saw in the NYC thread that the Euro is further west and phased.No maps, but what does that mean for the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 I would say the 00z euro has 1-1.25 inches of QPF along the I99 corridor between Sunday night and Monday evening however despite steady qpf rates on Monday the timing is not really your friend on this solution you would want the steadier rates at night more so then at day. I would say how strong this storm gets is going to be nowcasting it is possible the high resolution Nam is on to something. The euro developed the low faster but in the end result it was pretty close to the same pressure. It is the Faster development that caused it to turn west north west then west sooner then the previous run. I have Noticed over the years with big storms the models tend to do weird things last minute either go far east or weaker to only end up at the solution they had before making this last minute flip flops. I doubt we get back to the bomb the models had but we could come closer to that solution then the weaker solutions we saw earlier today when the models back of significantly. Alot right now is dependent on how fast this phases the set up in the upper level with the northern stream and southern stream is becoming highly favorable for a nice phase it is now just a matter of sitting back and watching this storm develop tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 HPC day 3 snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Guess it depends on where you are. I enjoyed the 00z GFS. Yeah, you'd think I'd learn by now to look at models first and not this thread first thing in the am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 My warm loving bias aside, why would you guys wish for a crippling snowstorm at this time of year, especially with the leaves on the trees already? I love our PA landscape, and the lush greenery is part of that love. A major wet snowstorm will damage and potentially destroy a lot of trees and shrubs. I know that as weather enthusiasts, we love the unusual, but really, do you want your parks, schools, and other landscaped areas to look like a tornado went through them? I know I don't, which is why I'm glad it's going to be nothing more then a breezy rainstorm in my location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 To answer the above, yes. Not really, but anamolous events are cool. Hopefully.damage is minimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 My warm loving bias aside, why would you guys wish for a crippling snowstorm at this time of year, especially with the leaves on the trees already? I love our PA landscape, and the lush greenery is part of that love. A major wet snowstorm will damage and potentially destroy a lot of trees and shrubs. I know that as weather enthusiasts, we love the unusual, but really, do you want your parks, schools, and other landscaped areas to look like a tornado went through them? I know I don't, which is why I'm glad it's going to be nothing more then a breezy rainstorm in my location. To answer the above, yes. Not really, but anamolous events are cool. Hopefully.damage is minimal. Well for me gardening and love for unusual weather are at war. Even a few inches of snow would be bad news for the young cold-hardy garden veggies I have going right now. I can prepare for that, however, with rocks and floating row covers. But my other stuff would be ****ed. Plus, we have several friends who live in the Park Forest section of State College. A beautiful neighborhood that is like a suburban neighborhood in a forest, all yards have lots of trees and there are small patches of woodland in parts. It's really nice, but last year, and especially during the 2009 October snowstorm, it becomes a horror show in heavy wet snow with leaves out. Our friends Audrey and Jamie said looking out their window at the trees, it looked like a bunch of giant monsters were trying to smother them. Their trees held up but others weren't so lucky. I drove through there and other parts of SC afterwards, and it was like a strong macroburst or EF-1 had rolled through. I agree with Hubb, it would be cool to witness an anomalous event as long as damage is minimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 NAM looks really warm at 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 NAM looks really warm at 6z. It shifted a good deal west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 6z NAM was a crushing blow for Western PA, and NAM looks about the same. GFS trended closer to that way as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 12z Nam says nah to east of Dubois...but west...GAME ON!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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