stormtracker Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Let's keep it discussion related...I understand some storm related banter will take place, but for the most part, keep banter in the...banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 00z GFS BUFKIT for BWI 120218/2100Z 69 16005KT 43.3F RAIN 0.012 120219/0000Z 72 15007KT 40.6F RAIN 0.031 120219/0300Z 75 14008KT 39.0F RAIN 0.016 120219/0600Z 78 09005KT 36.3F RAIN 0.150 120219/0900Z 81 07013KT 35.1F RAIN 0.138 120219/1200Z 84 04017KT 34.0F RASN 0.307 120219/1500Z 87 03015KT 34.0F RASN 0.319 120219/1800Z 90 36014KT 34.0F RASN 0.154 120219/2100Z 93 33013KT 34.3F RASN 0.079 120220/0000Z 96 33012KT 34.5F RAIN 0.020 06z GFS BUFKIT for BWI 120219/0600Z 72 20005KT 40.6F RAIN 0.016 120219/0900Z 75 02004KT 39.9F RAIN 0.106 120219/1200Z 78 03010KT 37.6F RAIN 0.106 120219/1500Z 81 02017KT 35.2F RAIN 0.161 120219/1800Z 84 01018KT 32.5F RASN 0.146 120219/2100Z 87 35014KT 32.0F SNOW 0.213 120220/0000Z 90 35014KT 30.4F SNOW 0.161 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 00z GFS BUFKIT for BWI 120218/2100Z 69 16005KT 43.3F RAIN 0.012 120219/0000Z 72 15007KT 40.6F RAIN 0.031 120219/0300Z 75 14008KT 39.0F RAIN 0.016 120219/0600Z 78 09005KT 36.3F RAIN 0.150 120219/0900Z 81 07013KT 35.1F RAIN 0.138 120219/1200Z 84 04017KT 34.0F RASN 0.307 120219/1500Z 87 03015KT 34.0F RASN 0.319 120219/1800Z 90 36014KT 34.0F RASN 0.154 120219/2100Z 93 33013KT 34.3F RASN 0.079 120220/0000Z 96 33012KT 34.5F RAIN 0.020 06z GFS BUFKIT for BWI 120219/0600Z 72 20005KT 40.6F RAIN 0.016 120219/0900Z 75 02004KT 39.9F RAIN 0.106 120219/1200Z 78 03010KT 37.6F RAIN 0.106 120219/1500Z 81 02017KT 35.2F RAIN 0.161 120219/1800Z 84 01018KT 32.5F RASN 0.146 120219/2100Z 87 35014KT 32.0F SNOW 0.213 120220/0000Z 90 35014KT 30.4F SNOW 0.161 Really nice improvement on the 06Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 00z GFS BUFKIT for BWI 120218/2100Z 69 16005KT 43.3F RAIN 0.012 120219/0000Z 72 15007KT 40.6F RAIN 0.031 120219/0300Z 75 14008KT 39.0F RAIN 0.016 120219/0600Z 78 09005KT 36.3F RAIN 0.150 120219/0900Z 81 07013KT 35.1F RAIN 0.138 120219/1200Z 84 04017KT 34.0F RASN 0.307 120219/1500Z 87 03015KT 34.0F RASN 0.319 120219/1800Z 90 36014KT 34.0F RASN 0.154 120219/2100Z 93 33013KT 34.3F RASN 0.079 120220/0000Z 96 33012KT 34.5F RAIN 0.020 06z GFS BUFKIT for BWI 120219/0600Z 72 20005KT 40.6F RAIN 0.016 120219/0900Z 75 02004KT 39.9F RAIN 0.106 120219/1200Z 78 03010KT 37.6F RAIN 0.106 120219/1500Z 81 02017KT 35.2F RAIN 0.161 120219/1800Z 84 01018KT 32.5F RASN 0.146 120219/2100Z 87 35014KT 32.0F SNOW 0.213 120220/0000Z 90 35014KT 30.4F SNOW 0.161 Similar to DCA so def an improvement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Really nice improvement on the 06Z GFS. Temps would be better for you and I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 JI into MD looked really nice on the GFS. It may be dicey before 18z, but then the mid level deformation/frontogenesis licked in, in the aftn.That's when the city gets licked pretty good for a period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Really nice improvement on the 06Z GFS. To support your statement even more - yes, 06z is much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I know it's the NAM, but its MUY cold down in my region. I know the extra layers often pick up the cold sooner-- I still think I'm rain to snow 1-3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'll probably pop in here with some thoughts from time to time, since I now have to deal with this it appears..starting tomorrow. Good luck down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'll probably pop in here with some thoughts from time to time, since I now have to deal with this it appears..starting tomorrow. Good luck down there. Thanks Scott, your insight is much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Thanks Scott, your insight is much appreciated. 06z GFS would be about 3-6hrs of very good snows across the I-95 region combined with falling temps. It looked really nice Sunday aftn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 best of luck friends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 To support your statement even more - yes, 06z is much better. I don't understand the differences between how BUFKIT and that meteogram forecast precip type, but no way do I see sleet. Soundings for 6z and 12z Sunday morning are definitely, much to my dismay, rain soundings on the 6z GFS. Freezing level is ~875mb and surface temp is in the upper 30s verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I don't understand the differences between how BUFKIT and that meteogram forecast precip type, but no way do I see sleet. Soundings for 6z and 12z Sunday morning are definitely, much to my dismay, rain soundings on the 6z GFS. Freezing level is ~875mb and surface temp is in the upper 30s verbatim. I have no idea, I just post them Posting the meteogram was more for visual purpose than anything, not everyone may be able to read and understand a BUFKIT print out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I don't understand the differences between how BUFKIT and that meteogram forecast precip type, but no way do I see sleet. Soundings for 6z and 12z Sunday morning are definitely, much to my dismay, rain soundings on the 6z GFS. Freezing level is ~875mb and surface temp is in the upper 30s verbatim. Seems with heavier precip rates wet bulbing would overcome BL issues, yea not seeing sleet that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Just remember, we are still relatively far away from Sunday aftn. Some things can happen between now and then, so it's important just to remain objective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Model question here. It probably has happened before, but isn't it unusual for the EC to take such a big jump in one run? And also, is the seemingly more consistent look to all of the models due to better data from the northern stream? If the answer to that last one is yes, then wouldn't it be logical to think that the wildness of the solutions is probably over, and we'll gradually hone in on the real solution? Thanks, Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Seems with heavier precip rates wet bulbing would overcome BL issues, yea not seeing sleet that's for sure. No sleet, but precip rate will certainly determine changeover time (or even if there's a changeover). Just remember, we are still relatively far away from Sunday aftn. Some things can happen between now and then, so it's important just to remain objective. Indeed. Despite the surprisingly good consensus on track that occurred with the overnight runs, I'd like to get a couple model cycles of consistency under our belt before we get down into the nitty-gritty of RA/SN lines and changeover times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I don't understand the differences between how BUFKIT and that meteogram forecast precip type, but no way do I see sleet. Soundings for 6z and 12z Sunday morning are definitely, much to my dismay, rain soundings on the 6z GFS. Freezing level is ~875mb and surface temp is in the upper 30s verbatim. The 06z GFS verbatim has the switchover between 15z and 18z for all three airports. There is still 0.5-0.6" of precip after 15z, and 0.3-0.4" after 18z. You do have to wonder about the lower level temps on the GFS if the 850 low is tracking through southern Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Model question here. It probably has happened before, but isn't it unusual for the EC to take such a big jump in one run? And also, is the seemingly more consistent look to all of the models due to better data from the northern stream? If the answer to that last one is yes, then wouldn't it be logical to think that the wildness of the solutions is probably over, and we'll gradually hone in on the real solution? Thanks, Good luck. Yes it happens. Also, perception [regarding consistency, not skill] about the ECMWF is so different than the other models since they only distribute products twice/day (instead of 4x). The more consistent look has as much to do with the lead time for the event (error growth in the models) than anything. Solutions always become clearer closer to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Model question here. It probably has happened before, but isn't it unusual for the EC to take such a big jump in one run? And also, is the seemingly more consistent look to all of the models due to better data from the northern stream? If the answer to that last one is yes, then wouldn't it be logical to think that the wildness of the solutions is probably over, and we'll gradually hone in on the real solution? Thanks, Good luck. The large jumps can be a bit deceiving though. The evolution of the ns and ss vorts has been kinda subtle for the most part. Variations in strength and timing but they have been in the same general areas for a couple of runs now. 6z gfs is showing the ns out in front of the ss and this is nice to see. The earlier inland and amped up gfs solutions were just variations in the timing of the 3 areas of vorticity. It wasn't really the huge model swings that people made it out to be. It's kinda cool (and scary) the all the models are converging on a near perfect interaction for us. I posted yesterday that I thought a stronger version of the euro ots would be our best chance for snow and zwyts semi agreed but said he is hoping for a more amped up and moisture laden system and so far it looks like his version is on the table. We're really only one ingredient away from being squarly in the crosshairs of a significant event and that's temps. Kinda the story of the winter lately. If you look at the 6z gfs, the hp supplying us with our cold air is still only in the 1024 range. In a normal winter in mid Feb this would be sufficient but we just haven't been blessed with cold air on our side of the globe. Surface flow leading up to the precip onset is steady from the nw on the 6z gfs. That's encouraging and precip onset is at night and that's going to help with marginal temps too. oh man, why can't it be sat afternoon..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The 06Z GFS literally shaved 3-5 degrees off temps during the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 You do have to wonder about the lower level temps on the GFS if the 850 low is tracking through southern Virginia. With the track of the low and a high to the NW, the ingredients are pretty classic for an all-snow event. But given how warm boundary layer temps have been in the last few "storms", even with plenty cold 850 temps and northerly flow, I don't think you can discount the idea the GFS has. I was a bit skeptical of the idea that the lack of snowcover to our north was hurting our low-level temps that much in these storms, but I'm warming up to the idea in the last few days/week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Not that it matters much but the NAM will likely be OTS..lagging that 50/50 behind and too much confluence because of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The large jumps can be a bit deceiving though. The evolution of the ns and ss vorts has been kinda subtle for the most part. Variations in strength and timing but they have been in the same general areas for a couple of runs now. 6z gfs is showing the ns out in front of the ss and this is nice to see. The earlier inland and amped up gfs solutions were just variations in the timing of the 3 areas of vorticity. It wasn't really the huge model swings that people made it out to be. Well said. I'll add that the ensembles have been showing the volatility/uncertainty. Certain evolutions/paradigms/regimes have larger error growth characteristics than others....just as certain regimes are ridiculously easy to forecast. This is a case where very small perturbations (initial condition differences, for example) can project onto rapidly growing modes (i.e. small error leads to large error) resulting in different looking forecasts (even with fairly short lead times). People focus so much on the surface reflection and precipitation skewing the perception of consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Not that it matters much but the NAM will likely be OTS..lagging that 50/50 behind and too much confluence because of it looking at the 700mb RH, it will be close, or at least a minor hit maybe better once the northern trough moves out of the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 With the track of the low and a high to the NW, the ingredients are pretty classic for an all-snow event. But given how warm boundary layer temps have been in the last few "storms", even with plenty cold 850 temps and northerly flow, I don't think you can discount the idea the GFS has. I was a bit skeptical of the idea that the lack of snowcover to our north was hurting our low-level temps that much in these storms, but I'm warming up to the idea in the last few days/week. Interesting analysis. So, it looks like a classic NE'r pummeling setup, but because everyone has had a warm/snowless winter, we get hosed? Kick us while we're down. I'm wondering how much of the confusion of the storm in the models is the high surface temps. Might be something they don't handle well. I'll admit to being someone who likes watching these wildly different predictions from models because it adds to the enterntainment factor in storm tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 looking at the 700mb RH, it will be close, or at least a minor hit maybe better once the northern trough moves out of the way Good catch...Upper level low probably catches us a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Oh boy, nam is confirming a near perfect scenario for us. Low in LA a bit stronger and hp to the N a bit stronger. Precip clearly further N than 6z. It looks really good folks. Nam @ 72 aside, it's looking just like all the other favorable recent guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 Not that it matters much but the NAM will likely be OTS..lagging that 50/50 behind and too much confluence because of it Good call on that. Not. Probably should let the run finish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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