PhineasC Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 psuhoffman ftw Saying big storms tend to miss DC is sort of a no-brainer. Sort of like when people say we need to "thread the needle" as if the rest of the time we waltz our way into every single event. We always have to thread the needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The h5 energy in MX appears to be a smidge slower on the 18z... but agree Yup and since we seem to have unlimited time to discuss the 36hr panel.....the middle piece of energy around NE/SD is slightly weaker. Edit to add slightly slower too. Maybe zwyts' request to slow the whole thing down 6 hours is being answered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 Yup and since we seem to have unlimited time to discuss the 36hr panel.....the middle piece of energy around NE/SD is slightly weaker. Is that helpful for us or no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Is that helpful for us or no? Probably totally insigificant really. I guess if there was any significance it would favor a further S solution but that is a total wag and means nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Yup and since we seem to have unlimited time to discuss the 36hr panel.....the middle piece of energy around NE/SD is slightly weaker. Edit to add slightly slower too. Maybe zwyts' request to slow the whole thing down 6 hours is being answered. When he said to slow it down 6 hours, I don't think he meant the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Since we're waiting for the NAM, let's extrapolate it out to 84 hrs. Will it make Dt or Phin happy or will it leave both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Saying big storms tend to miss DC is sort of a no-brainer. Sort of like when people say we need to "thread the needle" as if the rest of the time we waltz our way into every single event. We always have to thread the needle. Maybe but there are some false comments that become gospel. It is true that storms can and often do miss to the south in Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Since we're waiting for the NAM, let's extrapolate it out to 84 hrs. Will it make Dt or Phin happy or will it leave both It will definitely bring an ******ALEET******* either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Nam finally racing out towards the later frames, to 48 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Geez, this run better be good considering how long we have to wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Geez, this run better be good considering how long we have to wait. Each frame is being screened by the FBI probably to make sure there is no pornography in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'm tossing this NAM run because it took too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 psuhoffman ftw I thought it a pretty good post in terms or what he was saying about ninas. The northern stream tends to screw us in two different ways, each equally effective as teh northern stream is so active its hard to get things to phase if there is nay hint of a southern stream and if there isn't then things go to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I'm tossing this NAM run because it took too long. long range nam is win win.. if it's good put it in the good camp. if it's bad, it's the long range nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 long range nam is win win.. if it's good put it in the good camp. if it's bad, it's the long range nam. We have a winner, all jokes aside though this is starting to not look so great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I think we should use the NAM as our final forecast. Face it DC...it's not happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I thought it a pretty good post in terms or what he was saying about ninas. The northern stream tends to screw us in two different ways, each equally effective as teh northern stream is so active its hard to get things to phase if there is nay hint of a southern stream and if there isn't then things go to our north. agreed.. im not going to deny there is a long term tendancy for storms just to our south to sneak in as we get to gametime but even so it can't be assumed as fact "because it always happens". for one that's not true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 psuhoffman has arrived just in time to break down the demise of the storm in epic detail run-by-run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 psuhoffman has arrived just in time to break down the demise of the storm in epic detail run-by-run. This looks like the pscrapu storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 And the GFS has begun. Good timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 EE rule. Better luck next time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 agreed.. im not going to deny there is a long term tendancy for storms just to our south to sneak in as we get to gametime but even so it can't be assumed as fact "because it always happens". for one that's not true. Do you remember any memorable southern storms that missed to the south? I can't remember any, but I don't tend to remember misses. The storm that I can't forget is march of 09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 No, but there were a lot of Srefs members earlier today with the same solution. I don't think it changes anything from what I posted earlier. I was more or less posting what I thought it was going to do. I also am like JI, I want all my models to show a storm so I can write like I know what I'm talking about. You would be dangerous if you knew what you were talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 And the GFS has begun. Good timing. I was just about to say that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 And the GFS has begun. Good timing. If it craps out we will then have no models showing a storm for DC north. Funny how quick the worm can turn in model-land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Damn nam dammit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The GFS is going to go south. I feel it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The GFS is going to go south. I feel it. A betting man would agree strongly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Do you remember any memorable southern storms that missed to the south? I can't remember any, but I don't tend to remember misses. The storm that I can't forget is march of 09. not necessarily off the top of my head but that doesnt mean much. for one a lot of the storms that missed to the south ended up rain or not a big deal because they did not phase on time etc. dec 26 sorta did.. it was a miller a i guess but it acted more like a miller b with strong redevlopment in a place that was not very good for us. but i think in general a storm that creeps too far north would be more memorable anyway as we'd first go through feeling like we were going to get it good, and it's running into colder air usually as it climbs in latitude so it's more likely to be snow, just to name a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 psuhoffman has arrived just in time to break down the demise of the storm in epic detail run-by-run. I have no "gut feelings" on this one actually. I have been really busy lately, and away skiing in Colorado until yesterday so I have not really been able to digest everything yet. I was just pointing out that our normal north trend is our friend feelings do not always work well in a Nina. My thoughts are supression is a much bigger risk then it going too far north but thats obvious, boundary tems suck so that wont help, and the northern stream flow sucks as you would expect in a Nina pattern. However, flukes do happen, Feb 2006 and March 2010 come to mind and this is getting into the time period where if we get a storm in a Nina seems to always be Mid Feb through Mid March so maybe we get lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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