stormtracker Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Think fdk could get locally 4", baltimore 1-2 maybe 3, dca 1-2" baltimore does best if temps cooperate. Based off the NAM?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Think fdk could get locally 4", baltimore 1-2 maybe 3, dca 1-2" baltimore does best if temps cooperate. No. that was put out before the 12Z NAM, of course, and is tweaked after each model run Doesn't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Think fdk could get locally 4", baltimore 1-2 maybe 3, dca 1-2" baltimore does best if temps cooperate. I guess it's possible but it's also a bit precarious to take the best case nam scenario and add to it. It does happen from time to time with little systems like this but if you take the over every time you'll end up going broke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Based off the NAM?? yeah more or less, not my final forecast, id say dc 1 inch maybe 2, bal 1-2 iso 3, fdk 2-4 if we get good rates and qpf, hedging that models trend to the nam, i like the healthy vort and cold upper levels at 700 producing good rates and dendrites as will said last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 the 12Z nam is back to the 00Z nam look but maybe even a little colder. DCA is 34 at 18Z and 33 and change at 21Z. It certainly has a snow sounding. Not sure how much to trust it but it would argue for accumulating snow to the west and north and even dcs grass getting white at the very least and maybe even accumulating an inch or two. .25 inches of qpf as snow. That is much heavier than the euro which makes it a little suspect but the vort sure looks jazzy on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 that was put out before the 12Z NAM, of course, and is tweaked after each model run My zone forecast was changed from RA/SN 70% at 6:32 to SNOW 90% for tomorrow at 9:32 in West PW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Thanks Chris. I was pretty sure about the qpf question but my memory isn't what it used to be. I typically go by the rule of thumb to envision an even more reduced qpf outcome when there's a big spread in surface and dews. NAM usually ends up being high on the qpf regardless most of the time so it's safe to knock it back a bit even with a moist surface. I was thinking that since the southern area of vorticity was clearly dominent that it wasn't much to worry about but I'm paranoid this year that if anything can cause an event to underperform then it will do just that. IIRC- similar setups and vort passages like this in the past do make for some good window watching no matter what. I would expect that if the nam is right we will see a nice period of big flakes and nice rates. I'm counting every event with snow falling as an "event" this year. If I stick with tracking accum I start to cry. lol Yeah, and another thing to consider (beyond the NAM usually being too high with QPF) is that we'll lose some QPF because of surface temperatures / daytime effects. I'd be surprised to see many places eclipse 2 inches, even under the best lift. As was mentioned before, snow growth looks pretty optimal with the snow growth region around -10 to -14 C, so it should at least be a pretty dendrite snow, even if it has trouble accumulating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Yeah, and another thing to consider (beyond the NAM usually being too high with QPF) is that we'll lose some QPF because of surface temperatures / daytime effects. I'd be surprised to see many places eclipse 2 inches, even under the best lift. As was mentioned before, snow growth looks pretty optimal with the snow growth region around -10 to -14 C, so it should at least be a pretty dendrite snow, even if it has trouble accumulating. The daytime does limit things, the amounts over 2" will be on grassy surfaces, but im glad we agree on the cold snow growth region for healthy dendrites. Baltimore nw is pretty cold this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I don't think even Wes could find anything bad about this run..... Except it's the nam and is now more than twice as heavy as the euro QPF. Besides that, it's a great run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Nice little 'over performing' system in AMA. Good luck... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 the 12Z nam is back to the 00Z nam look but maybe even a little colder. DCA is 34 at 18Z and 33 and change at 21Z. It certainly has a snow sounding. Not sure how much to trust it but it would argue for accumulating snow to the west and north and even dcs grass getting white at the very least and maybe even accumulating an inch or two. .25 inches of qpf as snow. That is much heavier than the euro which makes it a little suspect but the vort sure looks jazzy on this run. euro has been incredibly stubborn giving us snow all year and its been right for the most part. If the euro keeps showing warm and dry, it would be hard to forecast 1-2 inches right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Nam has been too cold and too wet all year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 euro has been incredibly stubborn giving us snow all year and its been right for the most part. If the euro keeps showing warm and dry, it would be hard to forecast 1-2 inches right? Euro is most of the time to warm, if the 12Z gives us .2 or more of QPF then i would start getting excited for our biggest snowfall of this miserable season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 My zone forecast was changed from RA/SN 70% at 6:32 to SNOW 90% for tomorrow at 9:32 in West PW right, they put out a forecast in the early morning (that map has a time stamp of 7AM) and will tweak that map regularly, more so than the zone forecasts I've seen LWX change that map 2x-3x during the day when a system is imminent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 For now, I'd lean towards the lighter euro precip unless it gets wetter on the nest run. The nam has too much history of jazzing up qpf. It might be right but you ave to play the odds but in any forecast express the uncertaintly and there is a possibility the nam could be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 For now, I'd lean towards the lighter euro precip unless it gets wetter on the nest run. The nam has too much history of jazzing up qpf. It might be right but you ave to play the odds but in any forecast express the uncertaintly and there is a possibility the nam could be right. RGEM, fwiw, likes the idea of a max in our back yards http://www.weatherof...ast/593_100.gif EDIT: maybe I should of said in DCA/BWI corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Updated AFD from LWX SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion -- EXPANDED CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TOMORROW...WITH MINOR TWEAKS TO RAIN/SNOW LINE AND MADE SNOW AMOUNTS BASED MORE ON ELEVATION. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE PRETTY MUCH EXPECTED FOR THE NRN/NWRN PORTION OF THE CWA...WITH LESS CONFIDENCE FARTHER SOUTH DUE TO RAIN POTENTIAL. WITH EVENT SECOND PERIOD PERHAPS ONLY THE MOST CONFIDENT ZONES WOULD BE RAISED WITH AN ADVISORY...WITH OTHERS ADDED ON LATER SHIFTS AS CONFIDENCE CHANGES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 RGEM, fwiw, likes the idea of a max in our back yards http://www.weatherof...ast/593_100.gif EDIT: maybe I should of said in DCA/BWI corridor I'd still hold out until the gfs, euro or Sref ens mean went as heavy as the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 RGEM, fwiw, likes the idea of a max in our back yards http://www.weatherof...ast/593_100.gif EDIT: maybe I should of said in DCA/BWI corridor Its about the same as the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Think fdk could get locally 4", baltimore 1-2 maybe 3, dca 1-2" baltimore does best if temps cooperate. FDK sits in a pretty severe valley (for this region). Generally if it is an elevation storm, we get screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I'd still hold out until the gfs, euro or Sref ens mean went as heavy as the nam. I'm shocked you wouldn't change a forecast based on the RGEM, just shocked p.s. I still remember that 50mm max the RGEM had right over DCA/BWI for the 2/6/10 event....youzers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I'm shocked you wouldn't change a forecast based on the RGEM, just shocked p.s. I still remember that 50mm max the RGEM had right over DCA/BWI for the 2/6/10 event....youzers how is that e QBO working out for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 12z NAM BUFKIT for BWI 120208/1800Z 30 07005KT 37.0F RASN 0.004 120208/1900Z 31 04003KT 34.9F RASN 0.031 120208/2000Z 32 VRB02KT 33.8F RASN 0.039 120208/2100Z 33 01003KT 33.6F RASN 0.0671 20208/2200Z 34 VRB02KT 33.6F RASN 0.035 120208/2300Z 35 01003KT 33.1F RASN 0.047 120209/0000Z 36 03003KT 33.3F RASN 0.028 120209/0100Z 37 02003KT 33.4F RASN 0.012 120209/0200Z 38 36003KT 33.3F RASN 0.012 120209/0300Z 39 33003KT 33.4F RASN 0.004 120209/0400Z 40 32004KT 33.6F RASN 0.004 120209/0500Z 41 31004KT 33.6F RASN 0.004 QPF total: .287 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 FDK sits in a pretty severe valley (for this region). Generally if it is an elevation storm, we get screwed. I mean places like parrs ridge more so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=VA&stn=KDCA&model=nam&time=2012020712&field=prec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 9z SREF plumes...total precipitation for DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 12z NAM BUFKIT for BWI 120208/1800Z 30 07005KT 37.0F RASN 0.004 120208/1900Z 31 04003KT 34.9F RASN 0.031 120208/2000Z 32 VRB02KT 33.8F RASN 0.039 120208/2100Z 33 01003KT 33.6F RASN 0.0671 20208/2200Z 34 VRB02KT 33.6F RASN 0.035 120208/2300Z 35 01003KT 33.1F RASN 0.047 120209/0000Z 36 03003KT 33.3F RASN 0.028 120209/0100Z 37 02003KT 33.4F RASN 0.012 120209/0200Z 38 36003KT 33.3F RASN 0.012 120209/0300Z 39 33003KT 33.4F RASN 0.004 120209/0400Z 40 32004KT 33.6F RASN 0.004 120209/0500Z 41 31004KT 33.6F RASN 0.004 QPF total: .287 Would definitely be snow and trends are cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 9z SREF plumes...total precipitation for DCA Not very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 9z SREF plumes...total precipitation for DCA None are as heavy as the NAm and less than 50% have more than .10"? That makes one wonder about the nam temps. Lighter precip would yeild warmer boundary temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 None are as heavy as the NAm and less than 50% have more than .10"? That makes one wonder about the nam temps. Lighter precip would yeild warmer boundary temps. id probably forecast an inch or less right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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