Mr Bob Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 The Euro develops a low at day 8 NNE of Maine which just deepens and grows until the end of the run, we still have a ridge out west at 240. Not sure it's a good wintery pattern but it's cold. Ridge is fairly well beaten down by 240 and the axis is over the Rockies, that is not a cold look for anyone but New England...brief cold shot and out...the great replaying winter of 2012.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 The Euro develops a low at day 8 NNE of Maine which just deepens and grows until the end of the run, we still have a ridge out west at 240. Not sure it's a good wintery pattern but it's cold. am i looking at an old map? I really don't see a ridge, it looks very zonal on the pacific side, even though the atlantic looks really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 am i looking at an old map? I really don't see a ridge, it looks very zonal on the pacific side, even though the atlantic looks really good. Not sure, but here is what I see. I should used the word "cold" it's cool and colder than 0z run. And I should have said slight ridge. http://www.ecmwf.int...s!2012020212!!/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Ridge is fairly well beaten down by 240 and the axis is over the Rockies, that is not a cold look for anyone but New England...brief cold shot and out...the great replaying winter of 2012.... The trough has also been moving further west with each run. And the euro has been horribly inconsistant beyond 6 days for a while now. The consistency in the long range has been with the gfs. Both models keep moving the trough westward. I'm cautiously optimistic at this point. EDIT Not to mention the end of this run is advertising some greenland ridging. I know its dangerous to extrapolate, but it appears the pv will be rotating down into the center of the conus, a reinforcing cold shot if you will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 See no reason to think that the ridging up into Greenland at 240 on the Euro isn't transient in nature....looks like it's going to sweep on out to the northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 can anyone pay for Euro access? I know you can see some maps for free.....if so where do you sign up? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Pacific really eats the western ridge alive on the Euro. Can't buy a ridge. Can't buy a trough. Can't buy a -NAO. GFS on an island with the 2/12 system. Must be lonely out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 can anyone pay for Euro access? I know you can see some maps for free.....if so where do you sign up? Thanks Accuweather pro or stormvista. Google them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 can anyone pay for Euro access? I know you can see some maps for free.....if so where do you sign up? Thanks You can find all you need here: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/29651-newbie-reference/ Be sure to check out the maps section. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 New Euro ensembles- not much sign of a GOM storm, a cool shot but not as cold as the Op- then warmer. In other words....meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Anyone want to predict what this afternoon's Euro weeklies will show for the SE US for the next four weeks? The excitement is building! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Anyone want to predict what this afternoon's Euro weeklies will show for the SE US for the next four weeks? The excitement is building! Cool next week and than torch from there on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 This is just an uber-negative AO on both the Euro and GEFs 12z means ...just wow. Agreed...the blocking going on now and coming up is just as impressive as any of the low-solar periods in the last few years. Once we lose the protective Alaskan shield, all bets are off... It means that once we lose the influence of the Alaskan vortex (PNA ridge), we can start benefiting (if you like winter anyway) from the changing global state that is already in progress for numerous areas ... Positive height anomalies over the pole... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Anyone want to predict what this afternoon's Euro weeklies will show for the SE US for the next four weeks? The excitement is building! Cold cold cold! Does it even matter at this point? We have the Euro weeklies but we need snow now...kind of like those J.G. Wentworth commercials. I want the lump sum now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Anyone want to predict what this afternoon's Euro weeklies will show for the SE US for the next four weeks? The excitement is building! A cold and wintry pattern for two, maybe 3 weeks if we're lucky and then relaxes some by week 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Positive height anomalies over the pole... It's sad with that we can't get cold even with higher heights over the pole, still below heights over AK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I would suggest people read the Medium Range Forecast discussion over on the main weather board. Very interesting stuff. Our very own Phil (who has now moved NE) is turning into a fantastic source and Met. It seems from what I can tell we won't know anything until next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Agreed...the blocking going on now and coming up is just as impressive as any of the low-solar periods in the last few years. Once we lose the protective Alaskan shield, all bets are off... Didn't Admiral Ackbar say something similar in Return of the Jedi... It turned out well for him. A cold and wintry pattern for two, maybe 3 weeks if we're lucky and then relaxes some by week 4. I would take one week at this point - just to be reminded what cold air feels like. Until there's evidence that the hyperactive PJ has slowed it's under-cutting some, I'm not convinced any cold air would stay longer than a day or two. Just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Positive height anomalies over the pole... I certainly do not know the science behind when/how we lose the influence of the Ak vortex.....but sure sounds to me from those post that this could be setting up for some monster late winter early spring cold......time will tell but this is interesting none the less! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Hearing the Euro weeklies are brutal...torch the east with just warm in our area. cold in the west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Hearing the Euro weeklies are brutal...torch the east with just warm in our area. cold in the west... Yuck. Guess Tuesday was just a burp. If only the 18z had the cold around for the system it has the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Cold cold cold! Does it even matter at this point? We have the Euro weeklies but we need snow now...kind of like those J.G. Wentworth commercials. I want the lump sum now! everyone sing! 877 snow now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Hearing the Euro weeklies are brutal...torch the east with just warm in our area. cold in the west... Well that should bout do it. They have been spot on all winter, no need to think they will be wrong now!!! Thanks for the info!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Hearing the Euro weeklies are brutal...torch the east with just warm in our area. cold in the west... Can anyone legitimately post a graphic or a link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Ya I agree burger there is some great discussion going on about the pattern in the main forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Can anyone legitimately post a graphic or a link? I don't think they can. They could draw a picture but not use the exact image provided to people who have Euro Weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I don't think they can. They could draw a picture but not use the exact image provided to people who have Euro Weeklies. Thought that was the case ... Crayons, anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Well that should bout do it. They have been spot on all winter, no need to think they will be wrong now!!! Thanks for the info!!! I dissagree because if they are showing a torch now, then they just did an about face as the last one showed cold for the East. They must be flip flopping just like the rest of the regular mid and long range models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I dissagree because if they are showing a torch now, then they just did an about face as the last one showed cold for the East. They must be flip flopping just like the rest of the regular mid and long range models. No, you're forgetting the main rule here: if they show cold, they're wrong or an outlier and not to be trusted. If they show warm, then they're a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Folks, The Euro weeklies are mainly warm with a -PNAish look for weeks 2-4 fwiw. The pollen is probably going to be going crazy this month being that the pine is already being seen. I may have to pay another visit to the beach soon lol. Of course, they could be dead wrong as they are far from perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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