FoothillsNC Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 overall synoptically, the GFS paints a picture of some of the biggest in n. Ga and up the East coast. The western Baja trough is far south, and the PV is positioned nicely but its not quite cold enough, almost though, and the trend since yesterday is colder slightly. Its too far out to get excited yet, but if we could get that look to hold and ECMWF join it, we'd definitely have something to track for once. Its day 8 and 9, perhaps 10. It does this becuase of how it handles the big western ridge in nw Canada which tips east, and forces cold to come further south than it had been showing, but again, its been overdoing this a lot (both models in fact). We'll see if its reverting back , could be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Colder but storm too far east.....maybe OBX get some token flakes.....I'm still liking this potential. First time this year players have been on the field that long!! Don't take'em out coach!! Yea it gets some coastal development but just not enough. Surprised more people aren't talking about this run. It looks pretty durn good to me. Then again I can't read a map . Either way I'm sure Dr. No will put a damper on our parade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Yes, I know what the model says, but I'm talking about in reality. This has to be the WEENIE QUOTE OF THE YEAR!! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 The pattern shown on op. is not that bad of one, but you have to question its validity since we've yet to experience any cold. It repeats the pattern so another deep south or east coast storm later on, with nearly everything similar to days 7 through 10. Could be a repetitive pattern if the western ridging verfies and the cold can finally get pushed further south for once. It has been adamant on bringing about split flow for a few days now, and ecmwf has it too so we'll have one piece of the puzzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Yea it gets some coastal development but just not enough. Surprised more people aren't talking about this run. It looks pretty durn good to me. Then again I can't read a map . Either way I'm sure Dr. No will put a damper on our parade. Yeah, if the GFS can sustain and Dr. NO could concur I would have to get a little excited. It's amazing how opposite they're handling things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 The pattern shown on op. is not that bad of one, but you have to question its validity since we've yet to experience any cold. It repeats the pattern so another deep south or east coast storm later on, with nearly everything similar to days 7 through 10. Could be a repetitive pattern if the western ridging verfies and the cold can finally get pushed further south for once. It has been adamant on bringing about split flow for a few days now, and ecmwf has it too so we'll have one piece of the puzzle. Yea the problem has been it's broken record approach this whole winter. Keeps signaling for change, only to have it short lived and signal another one 10+ days later. I'm still hoping though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Day 7 through 10 storm looks sort of similar to Jan. 1987. And no, I'm not calling for a repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Day 7 through 10 storm looks sort of similar to Jan. 1987. And no, I'm not calling for a repeat. im a young one what type of storm was that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Day 7 through 10 storm looks sort of similar to Jan. 1987. And no, I'm not calling for a repeat. Guessing you're talking about this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 The pattern shown on op. is not that bad of one, but you have to question its validity since we've yet to experience any cold. It repeats the pattern so another deep south or east coast storm later on, with nearly everything similar to days 7 through 10. Could be a repetitive pattern if the western ridging verfies and the cold can finally get pushed further south for once. It has been adamant on bringing about split flow for a few days now, and ecmwf has it too so we'll have one piece of the puzzle. Yea the problem has been it's broken record approach this whole winter. Keeps signaling for change, only to have it short lived and signal another one 10+ days later. I'm still hoping though. This is exactly what I am talking about with the reality of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Day 7 through 10 storm looks sort of similar to Jan. 1987. And no, I'm not calling for a repeat. Mark it down! You heard it first right here! JANUARY 1987 REPEAT! (I know I saw those three words, but maybe there were other words in Robert's post that I overlooked?!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Now if the 1987 senario would shift east and give Raleigh 10" of snow instead of just a trace... Since we are all in need of some serious winter mojo, I'm going out to Lowes this weekend and get some nice flowers and bedding plants for the front yard. That's bound to bring in some freezing temperatures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 FWIW the GFS ENS Mean starts to cool after 240. It does have our Miller A type storm but looks too warm. It does look good though after 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Well, reality to me is it is Feb. 2, 65 degrees and sunny, there is a very long lived fantasy low still on the maps, and cold air still showing up in the med lr, and Europe finally got cold. Looks like a crap shoot, to me, and Burgers's all in. We'll know something in a week, and I'm wearing shorts again. I've seen winter weather more than once under similar conditions. One thing it ain't is boring Unless your life revolves around snow, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Yea it gets some coastal development but just not enough. Surprised more people aren't talking about this run. It looks pretty durn good to me. Then again I can't read a map . Either way I'm sure Dr. No will put a damper on our parade. I think too many feel burned by false hopes this Winter......but this one has been there consistently now for a few days now. And I don't think it would take tremendous changes in the upper air pattern to get good coastal development and draw some cold air in.....I'll take a rain to snow event. I'm almost all in with this one.....gonna give it another 48 hours to see where the models take us...... we need the praying hands smiley here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Well, reality to me is it is Feb. 2, 65 degrees and sunny, there is a very long lived fantasy low still on the maps, and cold air still showing up in the med lr, and Europe finally got cold. Looks like a crap shoot, to me, and Burgers's all in. We'll know something in a week, and I'm wearing shorts again. I've seen winter weather more than once under similar conditions. One thing it ain't is boring Unless your life revolves around snow, lol. T We've all gotta have our waterloo. To be honest I'm loving today and ready for spring and summer. I still want one big snow but I'll be glad to be able to sit outside and eat lunch or go to the pool on my day off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 FWIW the GFS ENS Mean starts to cool after 240. It does have our Miller A type storm but looks too warm. It does look good though after 240. the ensembles looked nearly identical to the op. to me. Its one of the old ways we'd get a winter storm in the upper Deep South/Apps and east coast. The PV is stationary, with cold rotating all around it, but I don't know where the individual high pressures would be, so it would be a thread the needle timing issue right now. Probably just cold enough on the northern and western shield though, parts of TN and NC with changeover after the system begins to go up the east coast. Thats all conjecture this far out. I'd take it's 5H look in a second though, and atleast its trended colder and kept the southern system well south, so its been consistent in some ways. We'd need more of an initial cold push south though, and thats the hard thing to do so far this Winter. It keeps a big western ridge , but does the cold slide more southeast and east or , or more south this time? It could trend into a pretty big system, fully phased and goes up the east coast, but way too early to know yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I'm still fairly intrigued by the 2/10-2/12 time frame. Obviously details to work out, but I wonder if the GFS is still breaking down the western ridge too much? If you shift it a little further west with a sharper +PNA, you might have something very good. Thoughts? 12z GFS Ensemble Mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 As far as the 10 day, If you take into account the EC's bias of hanging back energy in the southwest, the GFS soulution would likely be the correct one. Of course, this all depends if their right regarding the overall 5h pattern then. 10 day comparison : http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc.cgi?re=nhem&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC≥=640x480&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h240&cu=latest&overlay=yes&mo=gfs_mrnh≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=ln&ft=h240&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 the ensembles looked nearly identical to the op. to me. Its one of the old ways we'd get a winter storm in the upper Deep South/Apps and east coast. The PV is stationary, with cold rotating all around it, but I don't know where the individual high pressures would be, so it would be a thread the needle timing issue right now. Probably just cold enough on the northern and western shield though, parts of TN and NC with changeover after the system begins to go up the east coast. Thats all conjecture this far out. I'd take it's 5H look in a second though, and atleast its trended colder and kept the southern system well south, so its been consistent in some ways. We'd need more of an initial cold push south though, and thats the hard thing to do so far this Winter. It keeps a big western ridge , but does the cold slide more southeast and east or , or more south this time? It could trend into a pretty big system, fully phased and goes up the east coast, but way too early to know yet. Thanks guess I'm just having a bad day today with maps. I was just going by the thickness values and it looked like it was a warmer. Haha I just need to stop posting and ready today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 well, the ridging on the west coast looks impressive at 144 on the 12z Euro. Looks like it's going to cutoff the low in the southwest and the northern branch feature looks like it's actually a bit faster today than yesterday so that's not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 The cutoff on Ecmwf is way down there at the southern tip of the Baja at 180 hours. We've seen several cutoffs there. This run looks to keep it there longer than GFS, which would allow another dry cold front at 186. Atleast its turning colder, but this run isn't going to connect the two. Could be a bias, but may not be this year. Won't know until a trend gets established. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 The cutoff on Ecmwf is way down there at the southern tip of the Baja at 180 hours. We've seen several cutoffs there. This run looks to keep it there longer than GFS, which would allow another dry cold front at 186. Atleast its turning colder, but this run isn't going to connect the two. Could be a bias, but may not be this year. Won't know until a trend gets established. Also, the ridge out west is higher at 192 and the trough in the east is further south/west when compared to the 0z run, completely different run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Nice push of cold air at 204 so that's encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 The ridging looks GREAT, but is it real? We've been down this road a number of times, and it never materializes. Still looks good and will be a reason for DT and JB to lose a few more hairs after flipping back warm. Maybe if we can keep them on the warm train, cold will actually come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I was gonna say, at 168, comparing the GFS and Euro - looks to have pretty good agreement, minus the sw that the gfs has sped through, euro has it back over illinois. Euro a tad bit colder. Its nice enough that the two models have decent agreement at 7 days. Its been a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 The ridging looks GREAT, but is it real? We've been down this road a number of times, and it never materializes. Still looks good and will be a reason for DT and JB to lose a few more hairs after flipping back warm. Maybe if we can keep them on the warm train, cold will actually come. Yea this looks good in the LR...GFS might be on to something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Firehose of a Pacific looks to knock the ridging down past 168, but the Atlantic looks to become more favorable later in the run too. So who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 As far as the 10 day, If you take into account the EC's bias of hanging back energy in the southwest, the GFS soulution would likely be the correct one. 12z GFS Ensemble has a strong signal for the low coming out of the gulf....but I'm looking at this more as some drought relief for the areas south of I-85. A southern stream wave ejecting NE out of northern Mexico / south Texas usually means business in terms of copious moisture. GFS Ensemble has been on this solution for what, 5-6 days now? Having said that, I don't see any support for that solution thus far from the Euro/Euro Ens/Canadian Ens/UKMet, so that's a bad sign. Would be a big model win for the GFS if it does happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 The Euro develops a low at day 8 NNE of Maine which just deepens and grows until the end of the run, we still have a ridge out west at 240. Not sure it's a good wintery pattern but it's cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.