Shawn Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 This storm and all it's changes are starting to make me hope for a "perfect storm" scenario off the coast of SC/NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I still can't believe the huge southern shift in the modeled heavier snow. I'm still doubtful that many pickup a thumping in NC but it seems pretty obvious now that the northern counties will get good lick. If this ends up thumping areas in central NC I'll eat my hat. I said earlier this week I could'nt see how this storm could trend better for NC due to lack of cold air. Well that's still a concern for me regardless of what the models are spitting out verbatim. I think this system has a pretty high bust potential wrt modeled snowfall but also a pretty high potential to perform very well for many in NC. I'm still leaning towards cliff jumpers tomorrow but my confidence has taken a huge hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 It sure has been interesting following the forecasts for this storm. This time last night, NWS said I was supposed to already be having showers and t-showers, rain heavy at times and 1/2-3/4", and a similar forecast for Sunday. Now, 24 hours later, it says- Rain likely, mainly after 3am, and less than 1/10" expected. I wasn't, and still am not expecting much in the frozen dept., but since we're already down 50% in rainfall for the year, I was looking forward to an extended rain event. Guess I'll just have to see how tomorrow pans out, since tonight's once 100% chance of precip is still down in SC waffling around. /rant off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 This storm and all it's changes are starting to make me hope for a "perfect storm" scenario off the coast of SC/NC. These kind of posts need to stay in banter and out of the wx thread, thank you for posting it in here! In case some are wondering were their posts are going, pretty liberal with the deletes tonight. If it smells like crap probably is and we are canning it. Later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I still can't believe the huge southern shift in the modeled heavier snow. I'm still doubtful that many pickup a thumping in NC but it seems pretty obvious now that the northern counties will get good lick. If this ends up thumping areas in central NC I'll eat my hat. I said earlier this week I could'nt see how this storm could trend better for NC due to lack of cold air. Well that's still a concern for me regardless of what the models are spitting out verbatim. I think this system has a pretty high bust potential wrt modeled snowfall but also a pretty high potential to perform very well for many in NC. I'm still leaning towards cliff jumpers tomorrow but my confidence has taken a huge hit. Kudos, Marietta, for admitting when you were wrong. Of course, nothing has verified yet, so you still may be proven correct. Who knows what surprises are in store for us North Carolinians tomorrow? We shall see... (Of course, I'm rooting for that hat eating, because it would mean a white evening in my backyard!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 These kind of posts need to stay in banter and out of the wx thread, thank you for posting it in here! In case some are wondering were their posts are going, pretty liberal with the deletes tonight. If it smells like crap probably is and we are canning it. Later... NP, I'm trying now. =P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 It seems like everytime I say out loud (or type) what I think is going to happen, the opposite happens. Therefore, I'm going to predict that we get NOTHING but a few flakes. In all seriousness, it's so hard to believe they are possibly calling for snow tomorrow. I just took the trash out and it reminds me of the beach in the late spring outside. It feels so good out. My daughter and I went shopping today and when we got home, there seemed to be a ton of birds in peoples yards. Don't they usually do that before snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Frank Straight should have a video coming out some time soon tonight for anyone concerned. Last night around 11:45 he was talking about the South trend and he thought ultimately it'd be North and how the models within 60 hrs should be more accurate (even the gfs) so.. it'll be interesting what he has to say now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I've got kind of an IMBY serious question to ask, that immkeeping out of the other thread that I hope someone with some real knowledge can answer. I've GOT to be in Johnson City Monday night, coming from CLT. From what I can tell, temps will warm enough Monday, that I-40/26 will be passable Monday afternoon. Am I right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Let the cliff diving begin in VA. And TN. And KY. NC looks to be the sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I've got kind of an IMBY serious question to ask, that immkeeping out of the other thread that I hope someone with some real knowledge can answer. I've GOT to be in Johnson City Monday night, coming from CLT. From what I can tell, temps will warm enough Monday, that I-40/26 will be passable Monday afternoon. Am I right? What are you driving? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Yes, you re right, road issues should be a a min Monday afternoon evening, just too warm on the front and backside of this one to present sig travel hazards late day Monday. Watch out for areas with elevation and keep an eye on surface temps along the way which would be a sign if possible icing should they get at or below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Let the cliff diving begin in VA. And TN. And KY. NC looks to be the sweet spot. No cliff diving here. Ukie, SREF, GFS, and to some extent the NAM still have NE TN in the picture - maybe more so than we were. We were on the southern extent of the precip shield earlier. Now, we are on the northern extent. Defnitley a southward trend. If it were to trend south again, we'd be out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 What are you driving? Call THP ahead of time. Sam's Gap may be in bad shape if this continues south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Call THP ahead of time. Sam's Gap may be in bad shape if this continues south. Yep. the mountains are a different world. Also a bad accident can shut the highway down for a good while and you end up driving after the sun goes down. I'd keep at least a 1/2 tank of gas in my car in case I ended up sitting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Kudos, Marietta, for admitting when you were wrong. Of course, nothing has verified yet, so you still may be proven correct. Who knows what surprises are in store for us North Carolinians tomorrow? We shall see... (Of course, I'm rooting for that hat eating, because it would mean a white evening in my backyard!) Yep, i'm an honest guy and will admit defeat when I'm wrong. I busted pretty bad on the trending part and could have busted in totality lol. I hope I did because I'm pulling for the best outcome for you NC guys. If I was sitting in NC tonight I'd be pretty optimistic and rightfully do based off the models. The more of NC that gets it the better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 No cliff diving here. Ukie, SREF, GFS, and to some extent the NAM still have NE TN in the picture - maybe more so than we were. We were on the southern extent of the precip shield earlier. Now, we are on the northern extent. Defnitley a southward trend. If it were to trend south again, we'd be out of it. Is it because of the weak SLP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Yep. the mountains are a different world. Also a bad accident can shut the highway down for a good while and you end up driving after the sun goes down. I'd keep at least a 1/2 tank of gas in my car in case I ended up sitting. Your right about that! Get up over 3000 feet and it doesn't matter how warm is has been the previous day. If the temp drops and snow hard the roads will turn white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Is it because of the weak SLP? Less warm air will come up the valley. On the other hand, qpf will now be limited w/ some downsloping. It's definitely not a good tremd for middle and west TN. NE TN basically has a different rulebook for snowstorms. We really go as Richmond goes, sometimes DC. My concern now is qpf, not temps. Funny how the conversation has changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Soooo....anyone else getting a little nervous about the Euro? Wouldn't be the first time dr. no ushered in bad news at the last minute...I guess all that can really go wrong now is QPF drying up, but still, that would suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Yep, i'm an honest guy and will admit defeat when I'm wrong. I busted pretty bad on the trending part and could have busted in totality lol. I hope I did because I'm pulling for the best outcome for you NC guys. If I was sitting in NC tonight I'd be pretty optimistic and rightfully do based off the models. The more of NC that gets it the better! I was in here saying it was VA's storm last night. that's why I dont have a red tag. (: lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 WeatherNC! 49 pages! New thread? (: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Big shoes to fill if a new thread is started. Just sayin'... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 WeatherNC! 49 pages! New thread? (: We need Cold Rain to start it so we can have his COLD RAIN GUARANTEE!!! I really have NO idea what to expect right now from this thing. I could see anywhere from a slushy coating to 6" right now. No idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Cmon guys, join chat. I'm bored. :[ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Cmon guys, join chat. I'm bored. :[ Yes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Yes! Its working! YES! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 127 AM EST SUN FEB 19 2012 SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT/ COOLER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE SURFACE LOW COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF UPPER ENERGY PROVIDING FOR SOME WINTER PRECIP POTENTIAL THIS EVENING MAINLY NORTH FA. ARRAY OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT...BUT TEMPS COOLING OFF ENOUGH TO WARRANT POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW NORTHERN FA. I hate this area. They have our forecast set to "31 and rain" people don't understand that the "31" temp will occur after the moisture is gone.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I can't wait for you guys up north say in GSO or in Winston Salem to post pictures if you get accumulating snow fall. Especially for those who said there was NO WAY anyone OUTSIDE of the mountains would get ANY accumulating snows out of this. Just goes to show that anything can happen. Of course we may all get skunked on this one but looks like someone outside of the mountains is gonna get hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
norcarolinian Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I can't wait for you guys up north say in GSO or in Winston Salem to post pictures if you get accumulating snow fall. Especially for those who said there was NO WAY anyone OUTSIDE of the mountains would get ANY accumulating snows out of this. Just goes to show that anything can happen. Of course we may all get skunked on this one but looks like someone outside of the mountains is gonna get hammered. if it accumulates...im takin pics...cause i am a big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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