Tullioz Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I can't wait for you guys up north say in GSO or in Winston Salem to post pictures if you get accumulating snow fall. Especially for those who said there was NO WAY anyone OUTSIDE of the mountains would get ANY accumulating snows out of this. Just goes to show that anything can happen. Of course we may all get skunked on this one but looks like someone outside of the mountains is gonna get hammered. You talkin' to me? lol As we are now just hours away from the event, my confidence is growing that there will be no significant accumulations outside of the mountains South of NC/VA. Only the lucky ones will see a slushy accumulation from this one, maybe an inch or so for the very fortunate along the border. I outlined my reasoning in the discussion thread and that will be my last post there. Looking at current trends it appears now that moisture will not be as much as expected just 24 hours ago. Also, looking at radar things are moving pretty fast and the heaviest precipitation will be out of the Western two thirds of the state by 8pm. That along with temperatures still holding near 50 overnight and potential wet bulb temperatures being in the 40's leads me to believe that we will not fall below freezing in most of NC until after the precipitation ends. Actually I am starting to think that the energy transferring to the coast may become an issue by evening, as moisture will begin to decrease even sooner than expected. For the Piedmont I wouldn't be surprised if temperatures do not fall below freezing at any point tomorrow night and much of the night ends up with drizzle and fog towards morning. I hope that I am wrong for everyone back home, but the closer we get the more likely it is looking that I may be correct. We will have our answer in less than 24 hours. Good Luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Good luck folks! I will be watching form the Bench today ! Might need to drive north today to see some snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I'll be watching from the Galaxy S today! I'll be out till around 8 tonight. Good Luck if you're in the game. I'm pulling for you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 About soil temps, I have a question. So it's already 48 and if cools down with a cold rain won't the soil expend it's energy on that? If the snow starts wouldn't the soil be more starting at say 45 instead of 60 because of the rain? Or does the rain hurt the snow accumulation chances somehow? Was just thinking about that this morning, if it rains for a few hours wouldn't the snow be starting on soil pretty much cooled already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I see I am under a WWA now. I still think we get more than 3 inches of snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I see I am under a WWA now. I still think we get more than 3 inches of snow here. Worst part of this whole storm is that Brick could possibly cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 You talkin' to me? lol As we are now just hours away from the event, my confidence is growing that there will be no significant accumulations outside of the mountains South of NC/VA. Only the lucky ones will see a slushy accumulation from this one, maybe an inch or so for the very fortunate along the border. I outlined my reasoning in the discussion thread and that will be my last post there. Looking at current trends it appears now that moisture will not be as much as expected just 24 hours ago. Also, looking at radar things are moving pretty fast and the heaviest precipitation will be out of the Western two thirds of the state by 8pm. That along with temperatures still holding near 50 overnight and potential wet bulb temperatures being in the 40's leads me to believe that we will not fall below freezing in most of NC until after the precipitation ends. Actually I am starting to think that the energy transferring to the coast may become an issue by evening, as moisture will begin to decrease even sooner than expected. For the Piedmont I wouldn't be surprised if temperatures do not fall below freezing at any point tomorrow night and much of the night ends up with drizzle and fog towards morning. I hope that I am wrong for everyone back home, but the closer we get the more likely it is looking that I may be correct. We will have our answer in less than 24 hours. Good Luck. I have never hoped for someone to be so wrong ever! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I have never hoped for someone to be so wrong ever! I think that Tullioz is competing with WidreMann for the AmericanWx title of Dr. Buzzkill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I think that Tullioz is competing with WidreMann for the AmericanWx title of Dr. Buzzkill. Tullioz supports his points, and has been right about this since yesterday. I once thought 2-4 for Tri-Cities, TN. I think we'll see some snow on the backside w/ little or no accumulation. Chalk another one up to the man in the South Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I'm going to have to agree with Tullioz also. I'm just not seeing anything that screams accumulating snow outside of the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Tullioz supports his points, and has been right about this since yesterday. I once thought 2-4 for Tri-Cities, TN. I think we'll see some snow on the backside w/ little or no accumulation. Chalk another one up to the man in the South Pacific. Naysayers are always right before the snow accumulates. As for us east of the Apps, we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I don't have a good feeling about this. Call me a downer, but I just don't see much to get excited about anymore. I REALLY hope that I'm wrong. Think I'll take the dogs to Tractor Supply to take my mind off things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Widre going neg tilt in the storm thread, 3, 2, 1... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Widre going neg tilt in the wx thread, 3, 2, 1... Meh, I don't care. I get leftover Indian food for lunch at some point and then Minecraft for the afternoon. Nice cozy day, rain or snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Meh, I don't care. I get leftover Indian food for lunch at some point and then Minecraft for the afternoon. Nice cozy day, rain or snow. Have you cut down all those snow stealing trees yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Have you cut down all those snow stealing trees yet? And fixed the hole in the rn-gauge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Have you cut down all those snow stealing trees yet? Nah, they can have their snow. They deserve it after this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I don't have a good feeling about this. Call me a downer, but I just don't see much to get excited about anymore. I REALLY hope that I'm wrong. Think I'll take the dogs to Tractor Supply to take my mind off things. Fellow, have even looked at the current radar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 During events like this, does anyone else sense that schadenfreude/erfolgtraurigkeit negative energy within some of the forum posts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 During events like this, does anyone else sense that schadenfreude/erfolgtraurigkeit negative energy within some of the forum posts? Conservative not negative. Also, it's 45 degrees and raining outside here. You wanna talk about a day that looks depressing...this is it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Fellow, have even looked at the current radar? Yep. It's gonna be an hour or so based on what I'm seeing on radar before the bulk of the moisture makes it here again. Also, where is the moisture going to come from after the moisture from SC makes it past here? I'm not a weather pro. I'm just a person that enjoys learning about new things and I love weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Conservative not negative. Also, it's 45 degrees and raining outside here. You wanna talk about a day that looks depressing...this is it. Well, I'm talking less about the negative (or conservative) part and more about the schadenfreude/erfolgtraurigkeit part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 During events like this, does anyone else sense that schadenfreude/erfolgtraurigkeit negative energy within some of the forum posts? The funny thing is I love tracking storms here but absolutely hate being here the day of a storm. It is the same thing everytime. I used to get caught up in the middle of it, now I don't really care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 The reason you know nothing of significance is going to happen now is that there is virtually nobody -- no met, forecaster, or anyone else -- telling why the naysayers are wrong. Because they're not. I'm glad we're in storm mode though. Haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 The reason you know nothing of significance is going to happen now is that there is virtually nobody -- no met, forecaster, or anyone else -- telling why the naysayers are wrong. Because they're not. I'm glad we're in storm mode though. Haha! Hey CR...They were telling the naysayers they were wrong earlier. I think it reaches a point where they just say forget it, it's useless. It's like banging your head against a wall. We both know this was not going to be a big event for us. It was a storm that we could see some flakes flying and possibly an inch or two. I believe there's still time for this to happen. We weren't supposed to get anything from the slp anyway. Our snow is coming from the energy coming from the north so I think we should wait and see what happens later in the day. If I see some flakes flying later then I'll be happy because that's what my expectations where to begin w/. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 lol man this might be a record for 11th hour cliff diving on a storm. This is the same movie everytime. All the people talking about how it's going to bust are going to be reporting heavy snow in about 4 or 5 hours saying, "OMG can't believe it, it's pouring snow here". Always happens, I'm still hoping to pull out a miracle but I think CLT like always will be holding the bag on this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 The reason you know nothing of significance is going to happen now is that there is virtually nobody -- no met, forecaster, or anyone else -- telling why the naysayers are wrong. Because they're not. I'm glad we're in storm mode though. Haha! They were, but how many times can you repeat yourself? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 lol man this might be a record for 11th hour cliff diving on a storm. This is the same movie everytime. All the people talking about how it's going to bust are going to be reporting heavy snow in about 4 or 5 hours saying, "OMG can't believe it, it's pouring snow here". Always happens, I'm still hoping to pull out a miracle but I think CLT like always will be holding the bag on this storm. We're all weenies to some respect but this winter has just made everyone crazy. edit: Also, we got the Cold Rain guarantee and ignored it. What were we thinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I see a lot of the red taggers in the model thread are beginning to second guess this system. About time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I see a lot of the red taggers in the model thread are beginning to second guess this system. About time. lol did you see what Matthew East just posted? Again this happens everytime. When it's go time people cliff dive going, "look at the radar it's going to miss us". The thing is as the vort energy comes in it's going to start developing moisture...where exactly is anyone's guess...there will be some winners and losers with banding but to act like this thing is a widespread bust right now is foolish. If by 7 PM the radar looks the same then yes. However as I posted earlier I'll bet 80% of the people who are so worried will be jumping for joy by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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