A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I like 6.5". good call, better ratios. 6.5" it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I'm going to go with 1-3" for my backyard. Will be nice on top of the 2-3" we got today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Here's my call for MKE, .38" liquid for 6 inches...lock it in. I would agree, MKE def in the 5-7" range. Chicago has me worried though now, earlier this morning I thought 5-7" there too. However might be more 4-6" and along I-80 maybe less. Still a fluid situation though. Also Grand Rapids must be discounting Euro as they went with a WWA for bottom 3 tiers only... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I would agree, MKE def in the 5-7" range. Chicago has me worried though now, earlier this morning I thought 5-7" there too. However might be more 4-6" and along I-80 maybe less. Still a fluid situation though. Also Grand Rapids must be discounting Euro as they went with a WWA for bottom 3 tiers only... I80 is pretty far south, I think 88 North has always been the place to be for Illinois and now possibly 90 north. Worth mentioning that the Iowa counties under warning get very little from this run. death gradient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I like 6.5". good call, better ratios. 6.5" it is. I would agree, MKE def in the 5-7" range. Ill go with 7.3 for Alek's backyard. Feel free to bump later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Here is my initial forecast for midwest weather talk: I submitted my ariticle, it should be on there soon: http://midwestweathe...k.blogspot.com/ What is everyone else thinking? Like your map. Maybe the heavy band should be expanded back to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 A little old, this just off my 6z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 looks like MKE going with a WWA, probably a good idea of the direction LOT will go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Latest SREF mean slams southern Wisconsin too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 looks like MKE going with a WWA, probably a good idea of the direction LOT will go. They look a touch too low on the amounts though imo.. Calling for 3-5" in the city.. But hey not gonna complain too much esp this winter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 They look too low on the amounts though imo.. Calling for 2-4" in the city.. Yeah that's too low. I think 4-6" with isolated higher amounts would be a good call for Milwaukee. My earlier call of 1-3" for here still looks good. I'll go with 2" here, and 1-1.5" for the QC. Lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Here is my initial forecast for midwest weather talk: I submitted my ariticle, it should be on there soon: http://midwestweathe...k.blogspot.com/ What is everyone else thinking? Like your map. Maybe the heavy band should be expanded back to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 LOT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM VARIOUS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER HOVERING AROUND -10C. HOWEVER...FORECAST TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS DO SUGGEST THAT UVVS WILL BE STRONG WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE BETWEEN ROUGHLY 600-500MB WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ALSO TENDING TO FAVOR HIGHER THAN AVERAGE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. ADMITTEDLY OUR SKILL IN PREDICTING SNOW:LIQUID RATIOS IS LOW...BUT THIS EVENT DOES APPEAR TO HAVE THE LOOKS OF A HIGHER RATIO EVENT. OTHER THAN THE VARIOUS WRF AND HI-RES MESOSCALE MODELS...FORECAST MAX QPF HAS REMAINED CONSISTENTLY BETWEEN 0.35-0.50" WITHIN THE BAND OF HEAVIEST SNOW WHICH IS STILL LOOKING TO SET-UP OVER FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. HAVE BEEN HEMMING AND HAWING ALL MORNING LONG TRYING TO DECIDED WHAT TO DO WITH THE ONGOING WINTER STORM WATCH. OVERALL...THIS SYSTEM REALLY HAS THE LOOKS OF A SOLID ADVISORY EVENT AS IT IS A LOW AMPLITUDE OPEN WAVE THAT IS EVEN DAMPENING SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES VERY QUICKLY EASTWARD. MANY OF THE HIGHER-RES WRFS CONTINUE TO SPIT OUT HIGHER QPFS AND AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THESE NUMBERS ARE TOO HIGH. PROBABLY THE BIGGEST WILD CARD WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY PUSH SOME AREAS OVER THE EDGE INTO WARNING CRITERIA IS THE SNOW:LIQUID RATIOS. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH 12-15:1 RATIOS IN THE GRIDS NORTH OF I-80...WHICH SHOULD THESE TURN OUT TO BE TOO CONSERVATIVE COULD RESULT IN SOME AREAS EXCEEDING 6 INCHES...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY BE MORE OF A NOW-CASTING SHORT-FUSED UPGRADE TYPE ISSUE. AS ALLUDED TO IN THE BRIEF LATE MORNING AFD UPDATE THERE LOOKS TO BE A VERY SHARP CUT OFF TO THE PRECIP ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE. FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY REMAIN GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL AND LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. GRADIENT IN THE CURRENT SNOW GRIDS AND FORECAST SNOW GRAPHICS IS LIKELY TOO BAGGY BUT ABOUT AS REASONABLE OF A REPRESENTATION AS IS POSSIBLE AT THIS DISTANCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 LOT went with 3-6" (locally higher) in their WWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 My Call: 3 to 5" overall call for SEMI with isolated spots of 5-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Looks like the HRRR and the long range RUC **** the bed. Haven't updated all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 NIce growth zones showing up on sref as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 LOT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM VARIOUS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER HOVERING AROUND -10C. HOWEVER...FORECAST TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS DO SUGGEST THAT UVVS WILL BE STRONG WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE BETWEEN ROUGHLY 600-500MB WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ALSO TENDING TO FAVOR HIGHER THAN AVERAGE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. ADMITTEDLY OUR SKILL IN PREDICTING SNOW:LIQUID RATIOS IS LOW...BUT THIS EVENT DOES APPEAR TO HAVE THE LOOKS OF A HIGHER RATIO EVENT. OTHER THAN THE VARIOUS WRF AND HI-RES MESOSCALE MODELS...FORECAST MAX QPF HAS REMAINED CONSISTENTLY BETWEEN 0.35-0.50" WITHIN THE BAND OF HEAVIEST SNOW WHICH IS STILL LOOKING TO SET-UP OVER FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. HAVE BEEN HEMMING AND HAWING ALL MORNING LONG TRYING TO DECIDED WHAT TO DO WITH THE ONGOING WINTER STORM WATCH. OVERALL...THIS SYSTEM REALLY HAS THE LOOKS OF A SOLID ADVISORY EVENT AS IT IS A LOW AMPLITUDE OPEN WAVE THAT IS EVEN DAMPENING SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES VERY QUICKLY EASTWARD. MANY OF THE HIGHER-RES WRFS CONTINUE TO SPIT OUT HIGHER QPFS AND AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THESE NUMBERS ARE TOO HIGH. PROBABLY THE BIGGEST WILD CARD WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY PUSH SOME AREAS OVER THE EDGE INTO WARNING CRITERIA IS THE SNOW:LIQUID RATIOS. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH 12-15:1 RATIOS IN THE GRIDS NORTH OF I-80...WHICH SHOULD THESE TURN OUT TO BE TOO CONSERVATIVE COULD RESULT IN SOME AREAS EXCEEDING 6 INCHES...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY BE MORE OF A NOW-CASTING SHORT-FUSED UPGRADE TYPE ISSUE. AS ALLUDED TO IN THE BRIEF LATE MORNING AFD UPDATE THERE LOOKS TO BE A VERY SHARP CUT OFF TO THE PRECIP ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE. FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY REMAIN GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL AND LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. GRADIENT IN THE CURRENT SNOW GRIDS AND FORECAST SNOW GRAPHICS IS LIKELY TOO BAGGY BUT ABOUT AS REASONABLE OF A REPRESENTATION AS IS POSSIBLE AT THIS DISTANCE. Very well put quality discussion from LOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 DTX Thoughts.... Dynamics for this event will primarily be that of moist isentropic ascent along a gradually sloped stationary frontal boundary. Models suggest that the 290k surface will activate during the afternoon before transitioning down to the 285k surface as a subtle Theta-E ridge rolls into southeastern Michigan during the evening. Saturation will be deep...with available mixing ratios from 2-3 g/kg. Given the broad signal of the ascent within x sections...feeling is a widespread accumulating snowfall is likely for virtually all of the County Warning Area. There are negatives...the big one being quick system motion...the second being the overall lack of a strong or consistent frontogenesis feature (models do suggest some feature during the afternoon/but then quickly transition better fgen over northern Indiana. The magnitude and structure of the deformation field should allow the accumulating snow to fall even across portions of Midland and Bay counties. Snow ratios have provided a wrinkle with the traditional Cobb technique suggesting some snow ratios as low as 8:1 across the far south. The only guess at that is it may be keying off a riming layer at -3 to -4c at roughly 7 kft above ground level. Otherwise...southeastern Michigan remaining comfortably on the cool side of the stationary front...along with in house snow ratio ensemble technique suggests an event average snow ratio to fall in the 11:1 to 14:1 range higher north/lower south. Add this all up...the going forecast will carry ranging quantitative precipitation forecast amounts from around .1 across the far north to around .3 inch across the southern 4 counties. With the snow ratios mentioned above...this yields expected snow amounts of between 3 to 5 inches for the southern 4 counties...2 to 4 inches between I 69 and M 59...and generally 1 to 3 inches north of I 69. The snow is expected to push in after 2pm and exit the area by 2 am. The highest impact snow rates are expected to move in...during the evening commute. A tighter consensus on timing in the 00z cycle will be something to watch. With late period 2 to period 3 timing of the event...no headline decisions were made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 La Crosse going 3-7 almost area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I think most of Chicagoland will be fine. I see the 18z NAM as the northern extreme in this setup. It's hard to imagine it going any farther north given the airmass in place and lack of a strong/well defined wave so I'd anticipate a southward bump on the 00z run if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 I think most of Chicagoland will be fine. I see the 18z NAM as the northern extreme in this setup. It's hard to imagine it going any farther north given the airmass in place and lack of a strong/well defined wave so I'd anticipate a southward bump on the 00z run if anything. I really miss seeing those LAF sups in your picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 A little old, this just off my 6z run You can see the lake effect/enhancement nicely at this map. - into Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 You can see the lake effect/enhancement nicely at this map. - into Chicago. IMO, LE looks to add next to nothing, boundary level wind are only favorable for a super brief period and never all that strong. Unless wee see freak and unpredictable mesolow develope and move west, the lake won't be a factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 RGEM may have pushed north a bit, but still nothing like the NAM. I'd toss the NAM entirely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 RGEM may have pushed north a bit, but still nothing like the NAM. I'd toss the NAM entirely. Well I'd rather wait till the 0z runs tonight and 12z runs tomorrow. Any thoughts thus far. I'm going for 0.5 to 1.5" not including LES. Lets hope it shifts north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 LOT went with 3-6" (locally higher) in their WWA. visual... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Talk about a gradient from hell for the ord crew. Not sold on that and the NAM might be playn tricks. Either way a solid 3-6 inch event from ORD KZOO TOl DTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I really miss seeing those LAF sups in your picture. this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Well I'd rather wait till the 0z runs tonight and 12z runs tomorrow. Any thoughts thus far. I'm going for 0.5 to 1.5" not including LES. Lets hope it shifts north. I'll tell you what. I'll suspend my edict to toss the NAM for 20 minutes while we digest the 18z GFS. Barring a substantive shift with that model, I think this is just a typical garbage 18z NAM run. I concur with the amounts you posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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