SpartyOn Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 It's funny but we might be in the time frame for a lock. Sure some minor ticks and shifts to come but not enough to break ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 DVN getting all meteorolical and stuff .... pffffff AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 332 PM CST THU JAN 19 2012 BASED VERIFICATION OF MODEL FORCING AND VERIFICATION OF THE LIGHT SNOWFALL/FLURRY EVENT FROM THIS MORNING...CONCERN CONTINUES THAT MODELS ARE OVERDOING QPF AND CONTINUE TO TREND TOO HIGH WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT IS IN PLACE. LOOKING BACK AT THE FORCING...THE LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING APPEARED TO BEST ALIGN WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STRONGER FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND OMEGA FIELDS. BASED ON THIS...AND CLOUD TRENDS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL PLAINS...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE MORE NORTHERLY MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN OUR ANTICIPATED SNOWFALL. THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE NOW THE MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTIONS AND HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND OF WHERE THESE PLACE FORCING AND QPF/SNOWFALL...ADJUSTED DOWNWARD SOME BASED ON A SLIGHTLY MOIST MODEL BIAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 DVN getting all meteorolical and stuff .... pffffff AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 332 PM CST THU JAN 19 2012 BASED VERIFICATION OF MODEL FORCING AND VERIFICATION OF THE LIGHT SNOWFALL/FLURRY EVENT FROM THIS MORNING...CONCERN CONTINUES THAT MODELS ARE OVERDOING QPF AND CONTINUE TO TREND TOO HIGH WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT IS IN PLACE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE MORE NORTHERLY MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN OUR ANTICIPATED SNOWFALL. THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE NOW THE MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTIONS AND HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND OF WHERE THESE PLACE FORCING AND QPF/SNOWFALL...ADJUSTED DOWNWARD SOME BASED ON A SLIGHTLY MOIST MODEL BIAS. Will be interesting to see the AFD's and if they discount/give less credit to the Nam+Euro solutions again.. Nice to see some disco on this... Can't wait to see the 0z runs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 DVN always has interesting AFDs, sucks for this area but still a nice read Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 24hrs ago in the AFD DVN mentioned they were anticipating an adjustment south. I think the overall trend in the models to keep bumping things a bit north today is hard to ignore. The 00z runs should have this locked in pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Airmass very dry with -10 dewpoints now into northern IL, well below model output Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 It's just the WGN RPM model, but it's been trending north all day as well. Looks kind of Euro-ish to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 It's just the WGN RPM model, but it's been trending north all day as well. Looks kind of Euro-ish to me. That RPM is hit or miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 That RPM is hit or miss. +1 Stop looking at the RPM cyclone...you'll drive yourself nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 +1 Stop looking at the RPM cyclone...you'll drive yourself nuts. Haha, too late man. Too late. Actually I've been looking at it a lot more today mainly due to the longer range RUC and HRRR being down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 It's just the WGN RPM model, but it's been trending north all day as well. Looks kind of Euro-ish to me. Ya that would suck here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 ABC 7 Microcast looked more reasonable this go 'round, with 6-8 along I-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Haha, too late man. Too late. Actually I've been looking at it a lot more today mainly due to the longer range RUC and HRRR being down. Got to get your short term model fix, eh? Good luck with this system. Hopefully there are good things in store for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Airmass very dry with -10 dewpoints now into northern IL, well below model output good stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 This continues to look like an I-80 and North snow event, a break in the precipitation to the South and then a I-70 icing event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I give it a 90 % chance that the transition zone between precip types that are yet to be determined will set up like below. It happens during every transition zone storm, for this area. Mabe a little less dramatic then below, but it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Whenever I measure snow, I always take the measured amount and then double it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 It's just the WGN RPM model, but it's been trending north all day as well. Looks kind of Euro-ish to me. yikes...3 inches in my front yard and a dusting in the backyard . . . lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Got to get your short term model fix, eh? Good luck with this system. Hopefully there are good things in store for you. Haha, yup. Thanks man, you too. yikes...3 inches in my front yard and a dusting in the backyard . . . lol Hahaha! Good stuff. I had saved this graphic from earlier for something to look back on and laugh at. Maybe future avatar material lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 18z GFS looks wetter here...similar to the EURO it would seem. Rochester, MN news showed -3F and snow tomorrow morning. Really can't get much colder then that and still snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Whenever I measure snow, I always take the measured amount and then double it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Haha, yup. Thanks man, you too. Hahaha! Good stuff. I had saved this graphic from earlier for something to look back on and laugh at. Maybe future avatar material lol. Yeah, LOL. That looks like Cher after a nuclear explosion too. Poor gal needs a make-over 911!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I was curious, so I had to take a look at the RPM. I don't think it looks that bad...like no snow at all for Chicago or cyclone's backyard bad. Seems it's dropping the snows farther south (and developing some farther west towards DSM) at the end of its run (4:30PM)...granted after the initial band does its dirty work farther north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Tom Skiling just showed a "updated" RPM model. His model went south with the heaviest axis of snow over Chicago area with the cut off being well south of Kanakee. Take it for what it's worth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Yeah, LOL. That looks like Cher after a nuclear explosion too. Poor gal needs a make-over 911!!! Lmao!! I was curious, so I had to take a look at the RPM. I don't think it looks that bad...like no snow at all for Chicago or cyclone's backyard bad. Seems it's dropping the snows farther south (and developing some farther west towards DSM) at the end of its run (4:30PM)...granted after the initial band does its dirty work farther north and west. Yeah it does swing the tail through areas that were missed with the WAA wing snows. Very similar to what the Euro has been showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Tom Skiling just showed a "updated" RPM model. His model went south with the heaviest axis of snow over Chicago area with the cut off being well south of Kanakee. Take it for what it's worth! Good. LAF will take this one for the team. Not that we need to hinge our expectations on the RPM of course. Yeah it does swing the tail through areas that were missed with the WAA wing snows. Very similar to what the Euro has been showing. I guess I thought by your original post, it was a complete whiff. lol, obviously you were just commenting on the WAA snows. Sorry, I'm just rooting for you all to get a good snow and am looking for any good things/silver linings I can find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Accuweather (subscription service). I've got premium but I'm guessing it's on pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Yeah, LOL. That looks like Cher after a nuclear explosion too. Poor gal needs a make-over 911!!! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I've got premium but I'm guessing it's on pro Correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I was curious, so I had to take a look at the RPM. I don't think it looks that bad...like no snow at all for Chicago or cyclone's backyard bad. Seems it's dropping the snows farther south (and developing some farther west towards DSM) at the end of its run (4:30PM)...granted after the initial band does its dirty work farther north and west. Some of the more W-E orientated solutions are hard to buy into given where the low level baroclinic zone will line up...and even if things trend that way, i have to imagine the snows along the WAA wing could over perform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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