weatherpsycho Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Everyones favorite the 18z NAM on its way... Its the pot stirrer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 HA! NAM going north. I give up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 NAM well north, crushes southern WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Pretty awful run for MBY but still will manage .30 or so which keeps my 5" call in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UW-weather Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Here is my initial forecast for midwest weather talk: I submitted my ariticle, it should be on there soon: http://midwestweathe...k.blogspot.com/ What is everyone else thinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 NAM well north, crushes southern WI. Oh boy EE rule back in effect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 lol, panic/delight over the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 lol, panic/delight over the 18z NAM. classic stuff...still pretty confident with my first call...will save any meltdowns for the 0z runs. EDIT: looks like extreme NE Illinois makes out ok as the back end pulls through, really takes places south and west of I90 out of the game though...very much like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I'm going to disregard the 18z NAM until I see the 18z RGEM. If there's a legit north trend, RGEM would be one of the models on that bandwagon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Agreed, think 06Z NAM in regards to flopping. I'm going to disregard the 18z NAM until I see the 18z RGEM. If there's a legit north trend, RGEM would be one of the models on that bandwagon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 EE rule back in effect? Those two have been following in lock step lately...in fact QPF IMBY looks almost identical between the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 classic stuff...still pretty confident with my first call...will save any meltdowns for the 0z runs. EDIT: looks like extreme NE Illinois makes out ok as the back end pulls through, really takes places south and west of I90 out of the game though...very much like the E Your call looks good. I guess I don't get all the fuss about one model run after pretty good agreement with the majority at 12z. Alas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I'm going to disregard the 18z NAM until I see the 18z RGEM. If there's a legit north trend, RGEM would be one of the models on that bandwagon. This, although the closer we get the more NAM might have to be considered... though at this point I am not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 NAM well north, crushes southern WI. classic stuff...still pretty confident with my first call...will save any meltdowns for the 0z runs. EDIT: looks like extreme NE Illinois makes out ok as the back end pulls through, really takes places south and west of I90 out of the game though...very much like the Euro. Ends up making a last second dive south past MI/IN/OH... crushes lower michigan down to I-80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Your call looks good. I guess I don't get all the fuss about one model run after pretty good agreement with the majority at 12z. Alas... Probably has something to do with such a small band and tight gradient and when you have a perceived trend of the NAM/Euro going north you can expect some concern. I think I'm far enough north and east to have a little cushion and have kept my call reasonable but it's going to be tight. EDIT: i think crushes is being overused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I will be driving from Appleton, WI to Chicago tomorrow night. Gonna be a wild ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 If I was short term today I'd load the 12z Euro and take 75 percent of its QPF and be done with it. I'd need to look into ratios a little closer though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 classic stuff...still pretty confident with my first call...will save any meltdowns for the 0z runs. EDIT: looks like extreme NE Illinois makes out ok as the back end pulls through, really takes places south and west of I90 out of the game though...very much like the Euro. EE rule my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Would I be correct to assume that since most of the Precip is at night that it would greatly increase freezing rain chances? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Would I be correct to assume that since most of the Precip is at night that it would greatly increase freezing rain chances? Won't hurt but it's January 20 not March 20. Solar insolation isn't nearly the factor that it is later in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Will be interesting to see the AFD's and if they discount/give less credit to the Nam+Euro solutions again.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Nam increase precip in ice area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Probably has something to do with such a small band and tight gradient and when you have a perceived trend of the NAM/Euro going north you can expect some concern. I think I'm far enough north and east to have a little cushion and have kept my call reasonable but it's going to be tight. Well the Euro wasn't a complete shutout south of I-88 though...in NE IL. Really it just expanded the north edge in MN and WI. But yeah it'll be a tight gradient in the end. But again, just my humble opinion...I wouldn't get too excited or too down based off the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 18z nam <3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Will be interesting to see the AFD's and if they discount/give less credit to the Nam+Euro solutions again.. Here's my call for MKE, .38" liquid for 6 inches...lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Would I be correct to assume that since most of the Precip is at night that it would greatly increase freezing rain chances? Not really. It mostly is because of some warm air advection just above a cold layer at the surface. If this system speeds up a little, we could see it begin in the late afternoon tomorrow and some areas could see it through Saturday morning. We're likely going to be straddling the freezing line just above the surface during that time, so it's a very tricky situation along the I-70 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Here's my call for MKE, .38" liquid for 6 inches...lock it in. I like 6.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Well the Euro wasn't a complete shutout south of I-88 though...in NE IL. Really it just expanded the north edge in MN and WI. But yeah it'll be a tight gradient in the end. But again, just my humble opinion...I wouldn't get too excited or too down based off the 18z NAM. Words to live by, the model has a lot of work to do before getting back in good standing. I do find it a little suspicious that the wave would push so far east and not dive a little further south along the baroclinic zone but it really doesn't matter. Suffice it to say, if Illinois wins, you can expect .75"+ over ORD on the 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Model mayhem inside of 18 hours here. La crosse has a tough call coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Nam shows a little snow for my area on the backside of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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