weatherpsycho Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 No comparison. You'll at least get 1-3" worst case scenario. There's a growing chance we'll get shutout completely. It is growing more likely I will be joining you in the shutout or T-1cm department. Funny that the last storm was too far north and this one too far south. And looking at the following storm it will be too far north. Oh well life goes on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Yep that seems to be how it goes around here lately. I still think that this storm will move a little more north by the ooz runs tonight. At least for my area this reminds me of the mid Jan 2009 storm in which the models kept shifting and at one point had us getting very little but then with 36 hrs it shifted north so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 reliable, non-hype local met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XcNick Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 It is growing more likely I will be joining you in the shutout or T-1cm department. Funny that the last storm was too far north and this one too far south. And looking at the following storm it will be too far north. Oh well life goes on You may want to wait to say the storm is going to far South until the storm gets sampled. Things can easily shift just a little to you have huge impact on snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Yep that seems to be how it goes around here lately. I still think that this storm will move a little more north by the ooz runs tonight. At least for my area this reminds me of the mid Jan 2009 storm in which the models kept shifting and at one point had us getting very little but then with 36 hrs it shifted north so who knows. That was Jan 27-28, 2009 (Beau's ice storm). Much different animal (longwave trough). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 It is growing more likely I will be joining you in the shutout or T-1cm department. Funny that the last storm was too far north and this one too far south. And looking at the following storm it will be too far north. Oh well life goes on Where in S MI are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 reliable, non-hype local met. Northern and southern extent should be tightened up, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 6z NAM is sn to ip to zr and back to sn for LAF. GFS is all snow. Of course, the NAM drops significantly more precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 You may want to wait to say the storm is going to far South until the storm gets sampled. Things can easily shift just a little to you have huge impact on snow totals. Decaying storms dropping into an arctic boundry like this don't seem to do well here. Great example is March 21, 2008: Flint got an inch while I94 corridor got 7-12". Models had that one slamming me for days but within 24-36 hours they had a decent shifting southward. This system is modeled to be weaker than that March system and it is going into a stronger arctic boundry. Only way I see this one shifting northward is if the vorticities are being modeled significantly weaker than reality. If the vorticities turns out considerably stronger than SSC and I have a much better chance. It is worth monitoring but at this point I do not consider it likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 One thing is for sure, temps looks really cold, ratios are going to be really high.. mid teens for my area Friday night. Just because its cold doesn't mean ratios will be that great. We've had this discussion already in this thread, lets not do it again reliable, non-hype local met. I like it. Although that southern edge looks a little generous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Where in S MI are you? Currently for this storm I am in NW Oakland county (not to far from Flint). Lets just say I would prefer to be back in Allegan County where I was last weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Wake up and now the NAM is on the southern extreme. SREF's trended quite a ways north overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maumee Bay Turf Center Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 apps, just got an email from jay b at channel 13 and their newest runs of predictor show 1-2" for all of fri/sat...hes trying to figure out if he'll be the lone local met to back off...meeting him for lunch at 1 - i will pick his brain for some good 12z stuff...pacific storms have a tendancy to underachieve right here near the maumee bay area...seems like lake erie shoves them north or south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Just because its cold doesn't mean ratios will be that great. We've had this discussion already in this thread, lets not do it again Who are you tell what people can say? First: He was on topic Second: wasn't complaining Third: Probably wasn't here for that conversation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 apps, just got an email from jay b at channel 13 and their newest runs of predictor show 1-2" for all of fri/sat...hes trying to figure out if he'll be the lone local met to back off...meeting him for lunch at 1 - i will pick his brain for some good 12z stuff...pacific storms have a tendancy to underachieve right here near the maumee bay area...seems like lake erie shoves them north or south... Ehh sounds like he's just going conservative here. Toledo is and has been shown in the bullseye for quite awhile with this storm and with .5" of QPF being shown in this storm by the Euro makes it even more so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maumee Bay Turf Center Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 thats what baffled me and as well him - models showing good consensus qpf for us and their rpm backs off....and 11 is calling for 3-6 which is very aggressive for them... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 So I am I right in saying that our wave wont be completely sampled until the 0z runs tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 reliable, non-hype local met. Adjust everything north by 2-3 counties and you have my forecast at this point. Hope he is right though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Time for my early first call...largely Chicago centric. I'm using a pretty hard GFS/Euro split given their superior prior performace this winter with very minor input from the GGEM and NAM. As far as QPF goes, I generally think the main band will deliver amounts around .25-.35 but expect a thin line of .4-.5 across Southern Wisconsin. LOT had been mentioning the possibility of some lake moisture getting pulled in later in the event as boundary level winds could turn off the lake but I'm going to discount that for now given brief window, sketchy details and range but will review once in hi-res range. Also worth mentioning that setups with super cold air and calm winds over the far southern end of the lake can surprise. Ratios are always hard to figure at this range, the NAM is almost certainly wrong by mega torching at 850 but even looking at the much colder GFS, there is some rather robust WAA trying to fire up over the central plains around hr40 and I get the feeling it could possibly be underdoing it...the 12z Euro is a good compromise with respect to thermals. The cold surface temps and calm winds should factor positively in accums and best lift should be just north of the area. I'm going to use 17:1 or so ratios for MBY. First IMBY call 5" EDIT: worth mentioning that i'd increase ratios as you head north and still expect some locations to see double digit totals. Bumping this after reviewing 0z guidance. Throwing out the NAM completely since it has been awful this year and shows the worst consistency and taking a GFS/Euro split. I still think thermals will be a little bit better than LOT was thinking yesterday, it's more or less a hunch and goes against traditional "WAA is always underdone" logic, but this just doesn't seem like a potent enough system to warm the mid levels as much as we were seeing with some of the runs yesterday and I think we're starting to see them come back to earth. My original 17:1 idea was probably a little generous but I'm going to ride it for the sake of consistency and because I think we'll see the low/mid levels trend cooler on the 12/0z runs. QPF is tricky, but the consensus on the band streaking across N. Illinois...pretty much right into MBY is pretty good...I originally used .25-.35 which was playing it safe but not too pessimistic and I think it remains a fair call. Getting outside this immediate area, I like areas in NW Illinois and into Northern Iowa for the best shot at .4"+ We are just getting into the tail of the hi-res range but overall lake enhancement and a possible brief lake effect window is skill sketchy and I'll leave any totals in this regard off my call because of lack of clarity and general low probs. Riding 5" with above average confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Adjust everything north by 2-3 counties and you have my forecast at this point. Hope he is right though! I would love your call to be the result! Do you feel the models are too weak with the strength/vorticity? Or something else to cause it to be further north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 6z NMM and ARW would kind of fook north of the WI/IL border. Probably just noisy runs, as I believe right now...MKE down to I-88 look best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 6z NMM and ARW would kind of fook north of the WI/IL border. Probably just noisy runs, as I believe right now...MKE down to I-88 look best. We've seen the models shift in bunches, the last bunch kept the band pretty far south...since the wave will be better into hi-res domain later they should get better, until then i'm favoring the GFS/Euro solutions, although they too have come south some. I'd be increasingly concerned as you head north of the IL border, especially further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 We've seen the models shift in bunches, the last bunch kept the band pretty far south...since the wave will be better into hi-res domain later they should get better, until then i'm favoring the GFS/Euro solutions, although they too have come south some. I'd be increasingly concerned as you head north of the IL border, especially further east. I agree with your thoughts. Hopefully the 12z runs get into better agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Looks about right....GFS shows .21 of precip....i'll say about 4 inches in my backyard. although if the NAM is right...i might end up with almost nothing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Still looks like quite there is going to be alot of variation in the SREFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Looks about right....GFS shows .21 of precip....i'll say about 4 inches in my backyard. New SREFS would support tyhe GFS more than the NAM at least most of the members.... although if the NAM is right...i might end up with almost nothing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I would love your call to be the result! Do you feel the models are too weak with the strength/vorticity? Or something else to cause it to be further north? A combination of...1) A Lack of blocking, 2) Models often being too far south with low amplitude shortwaves in quasi-zonal flow, with a good bet at this point to take GFS/ECMWF blend and adjusting a little to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 early guess is the NAM could be flipping back north/wet/warm We've seen the models shift in bunches, the last bunch kept the band pretty far south...since the wave will be better into hi-res domain later they should get better, until then i'm favoring the GFS/Euro solutions, although they too have come south some. I'd be increasingly concerned as you head north of the IL border, especially further east. early guess is the NAM could be flipping back north/wet/warm. EDIT: def a bit stronger than 6z, also a tad cooler at 850 despite being stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 A combination of...1) A Lack of blocking, 2) Models often being too far south with low amplitude shortwaves in quasi-zonal flow, with a good bet at this point to take GFS/ECMWF blend and adjusting a little to the north. Thanks for the response. I have hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 FWIW from LOT. . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.