A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 GFS follows the NAM and is a little cooler in the mid levels, QPF remains on the lower side (which is stil the high side of what I used in my call) but would fluff up to 6-7" across the LOT watched area. My 5" call is looking a little bit low but I'll wait a little longer to reevaluate but there have been some positive trends with respect to thermals...possibly in response to the models having a better grasp of the atmosphere post artic front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Sure is going to be a cold snow tomorrow...only showing a high of 11F... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Sure is going to be a cold snow tomorrow...only showing a high of 11F... I really think you could get a surprise out of this system. Looking only around .25 QPF at this point maybe even less, but I think it could really fluff up good on that northern edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 is that 6 hour? nice to see ya credited on the WGN weather graphic this mornin' . . . congrats . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I really think you could get a surprise out of this system. Looking only around .25 QPF at this point maybe even less, but I think it could really fluff up good on that northern edge. Thats my hope right now. A narrow northern band of extreme ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 is that 6 hour? nice to see ya credited on the WGN weather graphic this mornin' . . . congrats . . . thank you sir, and yes 6hr qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 12z RGEM p-type plots has the icing threat south of here and through central/southern OH...interesting. Tries to sneak LAF into some mod snow for a couple of hours at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 compared to last week's system...just in terms of accumulations on roadways. . . the evening commute could be much worse than it was with the last system . . . as izzi was saying, much colder ground temps compared... we had 50's for three days before the last one....far from that with this one... been tellin' my buds to put a little extra gas in the 'ol tank before the evening commute tomorrow... not an insane snowstorm, but with temps and timing, could be quite disruptive tomorrow evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 thank you sir, and yes 6hr qpf. sweet...not too shabby at all....thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 IWX: BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVE WINTER WEATHER TONIGHT...WITH ATTENTION TURNING TO NEXT SNOW PRODUCER FOR FRIDAY. 12Z NAM HAS COME IN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AND CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN AT LEAST A HIGHER END ADVISORY TYPE EVENT FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL PLAY A MAJOR FACTOR IN DETERMINING EXACT AMOUNTS. WILL ASSESS REST OF 12Z DATA BEFORE MAKING ANY DECISIONS ON POTENTIAL HEADLINES FOR FRI AFTERNOON/NIGHT BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS STILL SUGGEST A HIGH END ADVISORY OR LOW END WARNING EVENT FOR NORTHERN AREAS. MORE TO COME ON THIS IN THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=IWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 All in on 4-7"... basically every model is showing .35"+ here, so just a matter of ratios now. Either way, it's likely that it will be the biggest snowfall of the season this far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Subject to change but LE looks very minimal, high res showing a very transient band on the backside which won't drop more than an inch on the western shores. Only wildcard remains mesolow development, super cold air in the morning sitting over the warm bowl end with calm winds turn light from the ESE could spin something up but too early to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 thank you sir, and yes 6hr qpf. Ya me too. I misunderstood. I thought you were interning with Jeffrey Skilling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 compared to last week's system...just in terms of accumulations on roadways. . . the evening commute could be much worse than it was with the last system . . . as izzi was saying, much colder ground temps compared... we had 50's for three days before the last one....far from that with this one... been tellin' my buds to put a little extra gas in the 'ol tank before the evening commute tomorrow... not an insane snowstorm, but with temps and timing, could be quite disruptive tomorrow evening And that one lasted well past 3 am and was a very light snow. This will probably only last till midnight, with some lingering LES. Fast moving, probably higher snow fall rates. Evening rush will be a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Subject to change but LE looks very minimal, high res showing a very transient band on the backside which won't drop more than an inch on the western shores. Only wildcard remains mesolow development, super cold air in the morning sitting over the warm bowl end with calm winds turn light from the ESE could spin something up but too early to tell. Milwaukee currently 3F and still falling...yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Milwaukee currently 3F and still falling...yikes. Very impressive. Cold seems to have been missed by some of the short range models. Though I guess the Extreme Cold Warnings to the NW should have given us a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 These sharp cut offs are always scary for snow lovers: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1043 AM CST THU JAN 19 2012 DISCUSSION 1043 AM CST WANTED TO SHARE A COUPLE PRELIM THOUGHTS ON FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT SYSTEM... CONTINUING TO DIG THROUGH 12Z GUIDANCE THAT IS COMING IN...PRELIM THOUGHTS AT THIS POINT ARE TO LET WATCH RIDE ON THIS SHIFT AND DEFER ANY POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO THE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT SHIFT AS EVENT STILL APPEARS TO BE BORDERLINE ADVISORY/WARNING AND PRIMARILY A LATE 2ND/EARLY 3RD PERIOD EVENT. DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT-OFF TO THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE WHICH WILL FURTHER COMPLICATE FORECAST. WILL LIKELY BE CUTTING POPS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER SOUTHERN MOST CWA AND SHARPENING UP THE POP GRADIENT IN THE GRIDS. MORE ON THE STORM LATER... IZZI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 6z NAM is sn to ip to zr and back to sn for LAF. GFS is all snow. Of course, the NAM drops significantly more precip. We seem to be trending away from the zr scenario and more toward a snow/sleet scenario but small shifts obviously can change that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Very impressive. Cold seems to have been missed by some of the short range models. Though I guess the Extreme Cold Warnings to the NW should have given us a clue. Yeah...this is a good old-fashioned CAA situation...you know it's impressive when an urban area like MKE is so cold this late in the morning. Madison is -1F and leveling out, ORD is 13F and falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 12z RGEM p-type plots has the icing threat south of here and through central/southern OH...interesting. Tries to sneak LAF into some mod snow for a couple of hours at the end. IND currently has LAF as all snow tomorrow night. So, I will take this one for you guys in LAF, as IND showing S***T for MBY tomorrow evening. Your welcome in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Having good luck today, nice clipper snow. Fri/Sat storm is trending cooler with more sleet/snow instead of rain and freesing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 IND currently has LAF as all snow tomorrow night. So, I will take this one for you guys in LAF, as IND showing S***T for MBY tomorrow evening. Your welcome in advance. lol, it's probably still a mix for here...but the -ZR part is losing steam. Doesn't look like a great amount of precip anyway...as we get fringed to the north and south, but still get something. Who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 some early hi-res action liking cyclone-ville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarmelPoster Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 This whole "missing" central Indiana crap is killing me! Where is winter hiding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 All the 12z guidance has ticked a hair north in this area, putting us near the razor sharp cutoff on the southern edge. The NAM shows the southwest portion of the QC with essentially nothing, while about 40 miles north there's 8". NWS point has us at 7" now, which would still be possible with a last minute bump south due to the extreme gradient. Still riding my 1-3" call for now. Chicago looks locked and loaded for a good snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 early look at possible lake enhancement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 some early hi-res action liking cyclone-ville Nice. Still some hope in our camp, but it's so close I refuse to budge from my pessimism lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 12z NAM continues to show a fairly significant band of icing across portions of Indiana & Ohio. NAM would be close to ice storm warning criteria near I-70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 NAM would be close to ice storm warning criteria near I-70. Yeah, the WAA just above the surface looks like it might be a real problem here. Not liking this one bit, I'd rather have 6 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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