Baroclinic Zone Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Most of you guys already had a huge storm in October. There is no reason at all for you to be complaining unless you just can't handle a few months without endless blizzards. The last few winters have really warped some folks views... The October snowstorm was an anomaly and is long since forgotten around here. Indeed, some did cash in on that system, myself not included. But some are still delusional that this winter has actually been good. The BOX summary speaks volumes as to how awful its been for the winter enthusiast. Top 3 for temps and snow for all the 4 climo stations. History is being made right here and now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2011 Author Share Posted December 29, 2011 I remember we had some people make the same kind of banter during the '06-'07 winter. Predicting no snow for the rest of the winter when it was apparent a regime change was happening for the 2nd half. There's a reason why the records are what they are...its because it will snow at some point...even in crappy patterns it will. Yeah but at this time there is nothing pointing to a regime change. Noone can say with any confidence there is going to be one, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 I remember we had some people make the same kind of banter during the '06-'07 winter. Predicting no snow for the rest of the winter when it was apparent a regime change was happening for the 2nd half. There's a reason why the records are what they are...its because it will snow at some point...even in crappy patterns it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Sitting at 26.3" here so far, ten of which came during the day before Thanksgiving storm. It's been boney here so far, no doubt. I'm not surprised though. All-in-all we've had a lot of snow here over the past ten years and the odds of a lean year are at least reasonable. We've had an inch or more on the ground since 12/8...so just having the ground white has helped my mood. There's a lot of winter to go. Things'll pick up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Yeah but at this time there is nothing pointing to a regime change. Noone can say with any confidence there is going to be one, Read the pattern change thread. I would argue this is false. Of course nothing guarantees a regime change, but to say nothing is pointing toward it is hyperbole to bolster your thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2011 Author Share Posted December 29, 2011 Read the pattern change thread. I would argue this is false. Of course nothing guarantees a regime change, but to say nothing is pointing toward it is hyperbole to bolster your thread. We were hearing the same sorts of things 3 weeks ago. I did read it. There is nothing I see in there that says change is on the way. The AO and NAO aren't changing, and until those things change there is no pattern change ...Period.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 We were hearing the same sorts of things 3 weeks ago. I did read it. There is nothing I see in there that says change is on the way. The AO and NAO aren't changing, and until those things change there is no pattern change ...Period.. We haven't seen any big changes show up in AK on the ensembles until recently...before it was just trying to figure out the weeklies. I think the ensembles are probably rushing it...but there is support for some change there this coming month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2011 Author Share Posted December 29, 2011 We haven't seen any big changes show up in AK on the ensembles until recently...before it was just trying to figure out the weeklies. I think the ensembles are probably rushing it...but there is support for some change there this coming month. Right now we are all facing the prospects of zero snow thru Jan15-20..That's almost another full month. By then we have lost over half of winter..Hopefully things do change, but for now I'm not buying any part of it, till we're sure.Because we've been burned one too many times this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 We haven't seen any big changes show up in AK on the ensembles until recently...before it was just trying to figure out the weeklies. I think the ensembles are probably rushing it...but there is support for some change there this coming month. I will embrace it once it occurs. Until then, i piss on this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Right now we are all facing the prospects of zero snow thru Jan15-20..That's almost another full month. By then we have lost over half of winter..Hopefully things do change, but for now I'm not buying any part of it, till we're sure.Because we've been burned one too many times this year disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wokeupthisam Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 January is usually good for a turnaround from whatever dominant pattern we've had - good or bad. Even in great winters, during January we often have to endure the 'upcoming break in the pattern', that delivers just as advertised, followed by hopes of a 'pattern reload' that seldom seems to live up to the promise. If this pattern continues without a significant break through January, then I dread Mar-April. Because by then I'll be cursing the monstrous springtime blocking and icy, grey, windy skies while the rest of the country breaks out in spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 We just don't live far enough north. I improved my situation when I moved 50 miles further up from the Mid Hudson Valley, but not good enough in a hopeless pattern like this year. Oh I got 0.3" from LES flurries last night. Here and there on the lawn I have mini drifts. LOL As painful as this is for me to do...it is very much a reality we may be facing this winter. It appears after a near snowless December we now face the very real possibility of a carbon copy in January. Nothing long range suggests any real change to the hell we have just been thru since Halloween. So our hopes rest on the month of Februrary. Unlike others, I would never root for a futility record. I would never want to live thru the least snowiest winter on record, but it's something I'm trying to deal with this year should that elephant man "look away I'm hideous" type of record happen to occur. Discuss your thoughts on the "Year without snow "here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 You might get some OES next week.... I may get a few inches of LES. No synoptic snow chances it seems. disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 We just can't mix cold air with moisture this year. I mean it's getting to be absurd. In any other year even a clipper like tomorrow would be good for an inch or two of warm advection snow in the beginning despite the track. It's so bad this year that by the time even the warm advection stuff grazes us tomorrow the BL and 850 level are torched. I mean it's a lousy clipper and they don't usually pull up so much mild air so quickly. I feel like I'm living on the south shore of Long Island. We haven't seen any big changes show up in AK on the ensembles until recently...before it was just trying to figure out the weeklies. I think the ensembles are probably rushing it...but there is support for some change there this coming month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2011 Author Share Posted December 29, 2011 disagree. Deep thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 I thnk Kevin's point is that despite some cold intusions now, snow is missing. But Will's point is that the pattern change signal is finally gaining traction for the first time this season. But in defense of Kevin's point, some seasons inexplicably want to **** us. Is this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 I dont think ive ever seen this before!! http://www.vtvast.org/VAST/Trails.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 I thnk Kevin's point is that despite some cold intusions now, snow is missing. But Will's point is that the pattern change signal is finally gaining traction for the first time this season. But in defense of Kevin's point, some seasons inexplicably want to **** us. Is this one? could it go wall to wall snowless? of course anything is possible. but talking about reaching record milestones at this stage of the game is just way premature, imo. this is like expecting someone to break .406 because they're hitting .420 at Memorial Day. it could happen but i'll wait for January.....February.....and March....before I care. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Same here in all our main areas such as the Tug Hill, western Dacks etc... I mainly snow shoe and x country ski. I'll give it another week or two, and then may go up and do a couple days in the Laurentians ...getting stir crazy sitting here looking at brown ground. I dont think ive ever seen this before!! http://www.vtvast.org/VAST/Trails.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Most places in SNE can't set a snowless futility record because of the Oct. snowfall already on the books. Kind of annoying probably because if you are going to have a snowless winter you might as well set a record. Kind of like if you are gonna be miserable and 95+ degrees you might as well set a high temp. record. could it go wall to wall snowless? of course anything is possible. but talking about reaching record milestones at this stage of the game is just way premature, imo. this is like expecting someone to break .406 because they're hitting .420 at Memorial Day. it could happen but i'll wait for January.....February.....and March....before I care. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 We were hearing the same sorts of things 3 weeks ago. I did read it. There is nothing I see in there that says change is on the way. The AO and NAO aren't changing, and until those things change there is no pattern change ...Period.. And as some of us guessed, the changes over AK didn't stick.....just transient PNA ridging....if they stick this time, then we can get away with a crappy arctic, but I'm guessing that the polar indecies will not remain where they are all season long. could it go wall to wall snowless? of course anything is possible. but talking about reaching record milestones at this stage of the game is just way premature, imo. this is like expecting someone to break .406 because they're hitting .420 at Memorial Day. it could happen but i'll wait for January.....February.....and March....before I care. LOL. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doug1991 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 I dont think ive ever seen this before!! http://www.vtvast.org/VAST/Trails.html 06-07 was like that till around mid Jan wasn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 I remember I started a "chasing futility" thread that season lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Kevin - you dig up this post when the Patriots are playing in a snow bowl on January 22nd....go ahead, remember this.... The pattern is a changing, for once maybe a decent 2nd half to winter before Wiz takes over the board with HS baseball scoring talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Kevin should probably leave the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2011 Author Share Posted December 29, 2011 This will be fun to bump in mid Feb when we are still talkng about a pattern change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Kevin should probably leave the board. The great irony to me is his OCD and hyper focus on things make him come off as Rain Man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2011 Author Share Posted December 29, 2011 The great irony to me is his OCD and hyper focus on things make him come off as Rain Man. Why don't you come up to the next GTG? it would be nice to meet you face to face Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Why don't you come up to the next GTG? it would be nice to meet you face to face I'm not into watching short guys giggle after having two beers. Thanks anyway. Now, get back to trying to collect donations from other board members. And by the way, I probably donate more to charity than you make in a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2011 Author Share Posted December 29, 2011 I'm not into watching short guys giggle after having two beers. Thanks anyway. Now, get back to trying to collect donations from other board members. And by the way, I probably donate more to charity than you make in a year. Figured as much. The socially inept tend to to shy away from public situations. How come you didn't donate to this board? Do you think you are better than us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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