LithiaWx Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 DT all but nails shut the coffin on winter. http://www.wxrisk.co...omes-a-knockin/ I respect that quite a bit. Instead of holding onto an idea that just does not seem like it's going to happen he just admitted he was wrong. Kind of like one major snowstorm is not going to vindicate all the folks who forecast cold and stormy weather this winter. Sure it might get some folks to their seasonal totals to normal or close for snowfall but how we got there would be completely different from the forecast. Well done on his end for saying what he did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 JB and DT are backing off, that's usually a good sign if you want winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 What would be funny is watching a pattern develop and unfold that brings about a historicly cold and snowy February. DT is probably right though about where we are headed, he's a very good met. He might not hold on to much hope, but that doesn't mean i can't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I think now is a good time to recall Roger Smith's forecast, issued back in October. I'd say he has been pretty good so far. Due to the nature of this forecast, I will make it very brief. The annual number crunch for my research method reveals a very mild pattern for the Great Lakes and northeast lasting through much of December and January, but a flip-flop to a very cold pattern by end of February into March. This seems a lot like 1967 as an analogue, so it suggests the wait for big-time winter storms may require patience, but could eventually be rewarded, by a developing strong storm track dropping south from a position through the Great Lakes in late January to the east coast in February. Would say that large anomalies are favoured in the pattern suggested, so could see anomalies of +4F or greater in December and January, and -4 F or lower in February. The severe cold suggested for February will probably pool over central Canada and the north central states from late November to mid-January to fire up a storm track that will run something like KS-MN early in the season, MO-MI later in January, and eventually GA-seVA-NS by February, as the severe cold pool is drained out by deflation of a persistent east coast ridge in the first half of winter. West coast may escape the direct influences of the western cold pool as a confluent jet stream near northern Vancouver Island drops southeast into the southern Rockies. This would favour heavy snowfalls in the interior parts of BC and southern Alberta, Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, northern/central Utah, and Colorado this winter. It may favour heavy rains on the west coast including much of California. Big storm dates for the east coast -- Feb 15-25 looks best. Possible record warmth around Jan 7-10. Not terribly different from 2010, I suppose ... which sounds good so ... patience !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Wow -- if late Feb. is cold, this guy will become a legend. I think now is a good time to recall Roger Smith's forecast, issued back in October. I'd say he has been pretty good so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Wow -- if late Feb. is cold, this guy will become a legend. Indeed, he would! Sounds like someone else I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 The first warning shot the models fired showing signs of trouble for our pattern change was the block in Alaska. I posted discussions on my blog and on here about it....that it would be be important whether or not the Alaska ridge remained full latitude, or whether it would cut off as it developed north, allowing troughing to dive underneath it....directing the cold into the NW US. Once it became clear the block would cut off and continue meandering northwest, that spelled trouble for any sustained cold in the Southeast. The block will do it's work....it will get the coldest air in the hemisphere into Canada....there just isn't a mechanism to deliver that cold into the South. With the Atlantic not really cooperating, that's not what cold weather fans need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I respect that quite a bit. Instead of holding onto an idea that just does not seem like it's going to happen he just admitted he was wrong. Kind of like one major snowstorm is not going to vindicate all the folks who forecast cold and stormy weather this winter. Sure it might get some folks to their seasonal totals to normal or close for snowfall but how we got there would be completely different from the forecast. Well done on his end for saying what he did. Once again, agreed. I never placed much stock in the so called Long Range Winter Forecasts by anyone, prominent or not. But there's no shame in calling a spade a spade and moving on. I've accepted that January is what it is, and I'm thankful for all the rain. Here's hoping for February to show the bi-polar personality it did last Feb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I think now is a good time to recall Roger Smith's forecast, issued back in October. I'd say he has been pretty good so far. Pretty good??? Damn... how could you expect anyone to get any closer... and this was October!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Interesting....wonder what Roger Smith's curent evaluation for the rest of the winter is???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 DT all but nails shut the coffin on winter. http://www.wxrisk.co...omes-a-knockin/ when has he ever been right on any event? Every time we get a storm he predicts we will get 12-24 inches. Always over estimates and constantly misses a forecast for Southeast. Heck he has flipped and flopped as much as JB this year. When a storm looks like it is going to get us he will once again jump back on ship and act like he predicted it the whole time. I remember last year he did the radio show with Allan and Robert neither one of them could get a word in. And once again Robert proved him wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 One of my local chief meteorologists just recently looked at the latest Euro monthly, and here's what he has to say about it: "The newest Euro Monthly is down. Keep in mind, any dates I give are not a lock. Treat them as a trend, something to track etc... big changes can take place on a dime... So here's what I've gleaned from the data: * A more active storm pattern will crank up Jan 17th through mid February. * Potential storm dates are: Jan 17/18 - Rain Jan 21 - Rain Jan 23/24 - Rain/Snow Jan28-30th - Rain Feb 2nd - Rain Feb 4/5th - Rain Feb 7th - Rain * As of this latest model run, it appears all rain for each of the storm hits. We may see upwards of 6-8" of rain, in total, by the 12th of February. I don't put a lot of faith in model rainfall total guesstimates; but there you are, use it as you will. * Hits of cold and, if true, some big hits of very warm temps expected to end January and pop up in early February. Modeling would suggest some 60s and 70s could arrive for brief periods of time and then we crash with cold hits behind these warm ups. Severe weather may be an issue with the transition from the very warm to very cold. Given the events of Wednesday evening, I'd say, this will be worth watching very closely. Rarely do you go from mid 60s and lower 70s to mid 40s, for highs, with ease this time of year. I hope this doesn't verify and that this is a case of the Euro having had its fill of wine and cheese. I'm just saying. * Looking outside of NC, a big chunk of the lower 48 will see winter snow get very active. Much of the USA has been snow starved thus far. Snow cranks up in the Rockies with big hits of snow for the Midwest, and the Northeast in the offing (NC Mountains too!). Time will tell, but I think over all it's about to finally get busy. A pretty good sign the LaNina is weakening. So, there it is, this weeks run of the Euro Monthly. It runs every Thursday. Nothing is ever a lock with modeling (please treat it as such), but, the Euro seems to be about the best model around these days." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 when has he ever been right on any event? Every time we get a storm he predicts we will get 12-24 inches. Always over estimates and constantly misses a forecast for Southeast. Heck he has flipped and flopped as much as JB this year. When a storm looks like it is going to get us he will once again jump back on ship and act like he predicted it the whole time. I remember last year he did the radio show with Allan and Robert neither one of them could get a word in. And once again Robert proved him wrong. Lol.. just ten days ago he posted at 2 in the morning talking about how excited he was over the model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 One of my local chief meteorologists just recently looked at the latest Euro monthly, and here's what he has to say about it: Which local met said this? I'm guessing Jeff Crum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx4life Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Which local met said this? I'm guessing Jeff Crum? I think that was Jeff who said that. I haven't had a chance to read it,but saw he updated his blog and something about the Euro monthlys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Which local met said this? I'm guessing Jeff Crum? Yeah it was him. Have to say though, it sounds like if (and a big if at that) this were the case, there would be a great deal of rain to put up with but perhaps one of those dates will feature colder air to work with for something besides rain (leaning more toward sometime during the first half of February for that one). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I think that was Jeff who said that. I haven't had a chance to read it,but saw he updated his blog and something about the Euro monthlys. Yeah it was him. Have to say though, it sounds like if (and a big if at that) this were the case, there would be a great deal of rain to put up with but perhaps one of those dates will feature colder air to work with for something besides rain (leaning more toward sometime during the first half of February for that one). I figured it sounds like something he would put out. Jeff is a very good MET, I wish he would follow Matt and post on here since he is very informative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I figured it sounds like something he would put out. Jeff is a very good MET, I wish he would follow Matt and post on here since he is very informative. Yeah he would be a great addition to our crew but he is only somewhat familiar with us since people like you and I would go onto his chat whenever a winter threat came up. He needs to make an account on here. That way we will have two great mets from News 14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I have basically felt that this winter would have above normal temps and below normal snowfall - once I saw the AO go ridiculously positive. That said, I am still not sold on this pattern going warm. I want to see what the pattern looks like when it is in place. If the Euro is placing the NAO in the wrong place, it could change the entire set-up in NA. I still don't think models handle cold air outbreaks very well. I realize I'm in the minority, but I'm not afraid of being wrong. And if so, I'll freely admit to it. Won't be the first and won't be the last. I feel the cold air will press further into the United States than the models depict. I think the pattern will get progressively colder w/ one significant warm-up on its way. February and March I am thinking will be cold - the cold air will make its way South this winter. I just hope it's not in May. I despise having to cover my garden w/ newspaper w/ late season frosts and freezes. And yes, DT's article was straight to the point. I like his style even if it is a bit abrasive. And yes, it is more scientifically based than my opinion - he is good at what he does. Anyway, let's see what happens when this pattern goes into place. Outside it is snowing w/ the wind blowing about 30 mph. It is a site to behold. Interestingly, everytime it has gotten cold we have had some wintery weather(albeit very, very limited in nature). Makes me think that when some cold truly can hold for a few days, NE TN could be in business. Happy Friday to all. I think I'm going to put in my seed order. As a side note, it is truly amazing how much it is raining during this La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 One of my local chief meteorologists just recently looked at the latest Euro monthly, and here's what he has to say about it: "The newest Euro Monthly is down. Keep in mind, any dates I give are not a lock. Treat them as a trend, something to track etc... big changes can take place on a dime... So here's what I've gleaned from the data: * A more active storm pattern will crank up Jan 17th through mid February. * Potential storm dates are: Jan 17/18 - Rain Jan 21 - Rain Jan 23/24 - Rain/Snow Jan28-30th - Rain Feb 2nd - Rain Feb 4/5th - Rain Feb 7th - Rain * As of this latest model run, it appears all rain for each of the storm hits. We may see upwards of 6-8" of rain, in total, by the 12th of February. I don't put a lot of faith in model rainfall total guesstimates; but there you are, use it as you will. * Hits of cold and, if true, some big hits of very warm temps expected to end January and pop up in early February. Modeling would suggest some 60s and 70s could arrive for brief periods of time and then we crash with cold hits behind these warm ups. Severe weather may be an issue with the transition from the very warm to very cold. Given the events of Wednesday evening, I'd say, this will be worth watching very closely. Rarely do you go from mid 60s and lower 70s to mid 40s, for highs, with ease this time of year. I hope this doesn't verify and that this is a case of the Euro having had its fill of wine and cheese. I'm just saying. * Looking outside of NC, a big chunk of the lower 48 will see winter snow get very active. Much of the USA has been snow starved thus far. Snow cranks up in the Rockies with big hits of snow for the Midwest, and the Northeast in the offing (NC Mountains too!). Time will tell, but I think over all it's about to finally get busy. A pretty good sign the LaNina is weakening. So, there it is, this weeks run of the Euro Monthly. It runs every Thursday. Nothing is ever a lock with modeling (please treat it as such), but, the Euro seems to be about the best model around these days." Thanks for the write-up. Keep it coming! Great information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I have basically felt that this winter would have above normal temps and below normal snowfall - once I saw the AO go ridiculously positive. That said, I am still not sold on this pattern going warm. I want to see what the pattern looks like when it is in place. If the Euro is placing the NAO in the wrong place, it could change the entire set-up in NA. I still don't think models handle cold air outbreaks very well. I realize I'm in the minority, but I'm not afraid of being wrong. And if so, I'll freely admit to it. Won't be the first and won't be the last. I feel the cold air will press further into the United States than the models depict. I think the pattern will get progressively colder w/ one significant warm-up on its way. February and March I am thinking will be cold - the cold air will make its way South this winter. I just hope it's not in May. I despise having to cover my garden w/ newspaper w/ late season frosts and freezes. And yes, DT's article was straight to the point. I like his style even if it is a bit abrasive. And yes, it is more scientifically based than my opinion - he is good at what he does. Anyway, let's see what happens when this pattern goes into place. Outside it is snowing w/ the wind blowing about 30 mph. It is a site to behold. Interestingly, everytime it has gotten cold we have had some wintery weather(albeit very, very limited in nature). Makes me think that when some cold truly can hold for a few days, NE TN could be in business. Happy Friday to all. I think I'm going to put in my seed order. As a side note, it is truly amazing how much it is raining during this La Nina. I'm with you I won't be staying up for the 00z runs tonight but we still need to get all the players on the field to see which direction the game will go. That probably won't be till around Monday or Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Brett Anderson's Euro Weeklies. What's that COLDER over the SE? http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/bad-news-for-alaska-into-february/60204 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Brett Anderson's Euro Weeklies. What's that COLDER over the SE? http://www.accuweath...-february/60204 The actual charts are not in front of me yet but the description from Matt Rogers is not showing any cold anywhere in the Lower 48 after Week 1...certainly not in the SE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I'm with you I won't be staying up for the 00z runs tonight but we still need to get all the players on the field to see which direction the game will go. That probably won't be till around Monday or Tuesday. I really do admire how you guys keep hope alive...the grass is whitened here tonight and schools are on a 2 hr delay perhaps cancelled...if I had their ear I would tell them to go ahead and burn the whole day as they don't need to save them for anything else... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 The actual charts are not in front of me yet but the description from Matt Rogers is not showing any cold anywhere in the Lower 48. after Week 1...certainly not in the SE... Maybe it's just seasonal but with all the heat it just looks colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I really do admire how you guys keep hope alive...the grass is whitened here tonight and schools are on a 2 hr delay perhaps cancelled...if I had their ear I would tell them to go ahead and burn the whole day as they don't need to save them for anything else... Don't forget that severe weather season is coming up, so they may need to close schools due to tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I really do admire how you guys keep hope alive...the grass is whitened here tonight and schools are on a 2 hr delay perhaps cancelled...if I had their ear I would tell them to go ahead and burn the whole day as they don't need to save them for anything else... Gluttons for punishment plain and simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Don't forget that severe weather season is coming up, so they may need to close schools due to tornadoes. If they get a half day in...they can count it as a whole...so it is not really a concern here. Flooding is the other school cancelling cause around here. Lee caused an off day and I could see that this spring with the current surplus. Just remembering this time last year the kids were out all week.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I really do admire how you guys keep hope alive...the grass is whitened here tonight and schools are on a 2 hr delay perhaps cancelled...if I had their ear I would tell them to go ahead and burn the whole day as they don't need to save them for anything else... Going to be a lot of unused days even if it turns cold and stormy. Ton of water in the river system right now. A wet spring could be a nightmare for the hydrology folks at TVA. Going to need to move some water. On the other hand, I sure would like a summer where I don't have to water the garden every night. Mr. Bob, what are your thoughts about the ENSO? Are we going to triple dip La Nina or go to a weak Nino(that's my guess or neutral)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 The actual charts are not in front of me yet but the description from Matt Rogers is not showing any cold anywhere in the Lower 48 after Week 1...certainly not in the SE... I saw the weeklies, it might be cooler but its transient like we will see the next few days, I didnt see any blocking, we are not getting snow without blocking, this year. The weeklies take us into mid-Feb, which leaves 2 weeks till March. We will look back on this winter and laugh at how positive we tried to be but with the record AO in Dec and persistent positive NAO since early fall we have no chance. I do think the mountains/foothills could do OK in Feb, but everyone outside of that it will be wait until 2013. I am throwing in the towel for central NC for snow....geronimo....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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