Wow Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Pretty darn zonal flow through 210 hrs on the Euro, though lots of blocking over the eastern hemisphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Still got it going at 192: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Trend over the past few runs has been to not drop as much troughing along the west coast (underneath the closed AK ridge)....so not seeing as much ridging in the SE. Is that good for snow in the se? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 The -NAO showing up on the latest Euro is east-based and likely transitory- this along with last night's EC ensembles and the GFS ensembles would lend me to believe that it will help keep the NE and maybe Mid-Atlantic in play for wintry weather, but it may very well stay too warm here in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 The -NAO showing up on the latest Euro is east-based and likely transitory- this along with last night's EC ensembles and the GFS ensembles would lend me to believe that it will help keep the NE and maybe Mid-Atlantic in play for wintry weather, but it may very well stay too warm here in the SE. We've got more of an issue over the Pacific now more than anything. Either way, the development of all of these cutoff lows across the globe is really going to complicate the forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 The -NAO showing up on the latest Euro is east-based and likely transitory- this along with last night's EC ensembles and the GFS ensembles would lend me to believe that it will help keep the NE and maybe Mid-Atlantic in play for wintry weather, but it may very well stay too warm here in the SE. Dang it cheez, we realize that.........BUT we are trying to WILL a trend here. Play along. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 this run has most of the country pretty warm by day 10. It's an usual look with it agreeing in the short term to about 168 hours but then diverges, and thats to be expected. The GFS has a tendency to develop the New England system more I think, the ECMWF trended that way, so bottom line is the cold will initially stretch nw to MidAtlantic down to Tn/NC it appears next mid week and late week. After that is really hard to say, but I'm sure s/w will show up and ride that boundary, which could be anywhere from central Plains to MidAtlantic. I don't see much chance of the cold getting further south than I-40 all that much unless the eastern storm next week really bombs out and creates more of a trough in the east. It's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 The big storm in the Pacific at 216 really screws everything up for much of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 We've got more of an issue over the Pacific now more than anything. Either way, the development of all of these cutoff lows across the globe is really going to complicate the forecasts. The air off the Pacific doesn't exactly appear Pacific in nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Still got it going at 192: That blocking is worthless. Look at the area to the west of it. Look at the position of the PV. There's nothing favorable about that map. I mean, I guess it's better than a honking SE ridge, but honestly, I'd rather have that and not have to wear my jacket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 We've got more of an issue over the Pacific now more than anything. Either way, the development of all of these cutoff lows across the globe is really going to complicate the forecasts. Not to mention all of the "bombs"... those can really muddy up the model picture more than anything... this is especially true if there's one in the USA (though the mega-bomb between Japan and the Aleutians can't be helping much either)... I say wait 3 days before even thinking about taking models beyond 96 verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 The air off the Pacific doesn't exactly appear Pacific in nature. That's not the problem he's talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 That's not the problem he's talking about. I was simply making an observation, and wasn't talking about a problem. Thanks though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 That blocking is worthless. Look at the area to the west of it. Look at the position of the PV. There's nothing favorable about that map. I mean, I guess it's better than a honking SE ridge, but honestly, I'd rather have that and not have to wear my jacket. Of course that's wortheless considering how the Pacific looked but that's what I feared would happen after the last two frames ran. Just wish the Alaskan ridge had not displaced itself so far west. It was still interesting to note nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 That is one ugly, ugly looking Euro Day 10 -- whatever Pacific blocking we had is breaking down -- NAO going positive again. PNA negative. The math is getting ugly for this winter -- it's like one of those football games where it's still midway through the third quarter, but you are down 3 or 4 scores. Long way to go .. but not really. Soon, I'll be ready to declare this a "WidreWinter." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 That is one ugly, ugly looking Euro Day 10 -- whatever Pacific blocking we had is breaking down -- NAO going positive again. PNA negative. The math is getting ugly for this winter -- it's like one of those football games where it's still midway through the third quarter, but you are down 3 or 4 scores. Long way to go .. but not really. Soon, I'll be ready to declare this a "WidreWinter." Since when? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 ecmwf is probably having a harder time with the pattern than the GFS. Its daily runs are a testament to this, plus the fact that many studies I read mentioned the fact that model had issues during the development phase of the blocking. But once it is formed it supposedly gets much better with predictability in the flow. Here's the last few runs of the model, valid roughly same time frame. You can see it doesn't handle the eastern Siberia blocking the same each run, nor does it know what to do in the Atlantic or Europe, with major swings run to run there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Since when? I don't know or care how those indices work or are measured. I know there are a million different defintions of an -NAO and don't want to get into that debate. But I do know enough to say that Day 10 map is moving the WRONG direction re: the Greenland blocking/-NAO that the models have been trying to show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I don't know or care how those indices work or are measured. I know there are a million different defintions of an -NAO and don't want to get into that debate. But I do know enough to say that Day 10 map is moving the WRONG direction re: the Greenland blocking/-NAO that the models have been trying to show. I'm willing to reserve judgment until ten days from now . We should really make a note of this just to see how it all plays out ten days from now. I'm with you it doesn't look good at all now with so many models looking like crap in the LR....but the fact that they all keep having a different look even in the short term with the vort energy at 500mb tells me that we can't put faith in a good solution or a bad one. Just look at the last 3 runs of the NAM and what they do with the energy out west around 72 hours. It doesn't exactly exude confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Although not as pronounced as the 0Z run, the12Z Euro is still trying to develop Greenland blocking at day 10. That is still a positive, in my book, even if the rest of the pattern does not cooperate. Perhaps Greenland blocking will develop and sustain itself beyond 10 days??? Remeber the models did sniff out the AK block, more or less, from beyond the 10 day range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Looks to me like the -NAO the Euro keeps showing (which is what it's been doing on and off for a while) is showing a storm moving into eastern Canada, which pumps up heights over Greenland. Of course, the ridging moves out quickly and is replaced by lower heights again. This has the effect of making the index lower, but it is far from a block (outside of the more easr-based block on last night's outlier run), and it is far from anything that will help us get drastically colder, more sustained cold, and/or a storm track suppressed far enough to the south to do any of us any good. A transitory, east-based, or Atlantic thumb ridge styled -NAO is not going to be any sort of a game changer around here, particularly when the Pacific looks as bad as it does. Who knows if what the model is predicting is right though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 But if you look at the progression from Days 7-10, it is clear to me the block is subsiding -- either sliding east or being squeezed out. Although not as pronounced as the 0Z run, the12Z Euro is still trying to develop Greenland blocking at day 10. That is still a positive, in my book, even if the rest of the pattern does not cooperate. Perhaps Greenland blocking will develop and sustain itself beyond 10 days??? Remeber the models did sniff out the AK block, more or less, from beyond the 10 day range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Not surprisingly, you said it better than I. Looks to me like the -NAO the Euro keeps showing (which is what it's been doing on and off for a while) is showing a storm moving into eastern Canada, which pumps up heights over Greenland. Of course, the ridging moves out quickly and is replaced by lower heights again. This has the effect of making the index lower, but it is far from a block (outside of the more easr-based block on last night's outlier run), and it is far from anything that will help us get drastically colder, more sustained cold, and/or a storm track suppressed far enough to the south to do any of us any good. A transitory, east-based, or Atlantic thumb ridge styled -NAO is not going to be any sort of a game changer around here, particularly when the Pacific looks as bad as it does. Who knows if what the model is predicting is right though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 But if you look at the progression from Days 7-10, it is clear to me the block is subsiding -- either sliding east or being squeezed out. Yeah, you're right. But were the models trying to do the same thing when they first started sniffing out the AK block? It's been so long my memory might be off, but I seem to recall they were wishy washy (in day 10 range) at first on the that feature. Anyway, if so that obviously does not mean the same will happen in Greenland, but it is something to keep hope alive for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 12z euro at hr240. Temps around 68 for Texas. Around 50 for NC. @ 850mb / will be warmer on the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 DT all but nails shut the coffin on winter. http://www.wxrisk.com/2012/01/pamela-anderson-comes-a-knockin/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Not surprisingly, you said it better than I. I bloviated. . You got straight to the point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Sounds like he said his forecast won't verify but that he has no clue what would happen in Feb. I would imagine extreme winters, whether cold/snowy or mild, are tough to forecast for anyone. DT all but nails shut the coffin on winter. http://www.wxrisk.com/2012/01/pamela-anderson-comes-a-knockin/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 DT all but nails shut the coffin on winter. http://www.wxrisk.co...omes-a-knockin/ DT and JB have done more flips this winter than a Chinese acrobat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 DT all but nails shut the coffin on winter. http://www.wxrisk.com/2012/01/pamela-anderson-comes-a-knockin/ Well if he was wrong before, just maybe he's wrong this time? Although his odds are much better forecasting warm over cold this winter!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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