dsaur Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 While you lot lie twisted at the bottom of the death leap, I will be enjoying all the rain the models are giving me!! Rain, ha, ha, rain, glorious rain, ha, ha, ha.... It's alive!!!! Winter gives you lemons, sit back and dig some lemonade Best enjoy it now, because when the mother of all cold comes down next month it is apt to get very dry, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 No hope from CPC today ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Allen posted an update with his thoughts this morning: http://www.examiner....to-late-january .... we look to get into a very warm late January patter with highs well into the 60s by next weekend and possibly 70s the following week. I cant stand this weather in January, but it will certainly be great weather to get outdoors and golfing or do general outdoor activities. This warm weather pattern is caused by a strong +EPO phase and a continued +NAO. This allows for a monster trough in the Gulf of Alaska and a monster ridge across most of North America. Therefore the very warm pattern likely to last through at least late January ----------------- Will someone in NC even hit 80 degrees before end of January? Saw that happen in the late 70's and then cold and snow within a couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 While you lot lie twisted at the bottom of the death leap, I will be enjoying all the rain the models are giving me!! Rain, ha, ha, rain, glorious rain, ha, ha, ha.... It's alive!!!! Winter gives you lemons, sit back and dig some lemonade Best enjoy it now, because when the mother of all cold comes down next month it is apt to get very dry, lol. T You are gonna like the 12Z GFS in the med-long range Tony. Lots of rain for us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Saw that happen in the late 70's and then cold and snow within a couple weeks. I have to say you are a persistent and optimistic snowman! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 GFS continued from last night, excep the cold mid and late next week never really gets below the Ohio Valley, so that's trending north too. Beyond that front, there are several fronts through the run, but no cold associated with any of them, not even close by cold air at all. Most of the nation gets warm, and especially in the Southeast, where we flirt with heights of 564, 576 even 582 heights off the Ga /SC coast so that's pretty remarkable. There could be some good rain events, at this point severe weather outbreaks and tornado threats are much more of a concern than any snow or ice atleast until the last couple of days of the month. Only exciting weather appears to be just how high can our temps go in mid and late month (records are possible), and maybe some low level jet wind events ahead of full latitude passing troughs, with squall lines. Hopefully we can get a switch in early February, with a Greenland block which is desperately needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Fertilize yard - check! Mulch beds - check! Paint trim on house - check! Clean garage - check! Having all spring chores done in January so I can go boating in March - PRICELESS!! Hell, it'll be 90 by then right? Seriously though, if you haven't checked out the pics and news stories from Alaska in the last couple of days, I highly recommend pulling up a story or two from a local affiliate. Those people are so screwed. I want snow, but NEVER want my house to be 4 feet UNDER the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Also qpf is pretty generous in the whole east, esp. Southeast, with widespread 2" to 4" amounts trhough the next couple of weeks. Out west, over 12" is likely with strong onshore flow. I'm sure the Cascades and Olympics will pile up many feet of snow there. Also, the vortex returns to southern Alaska after about a week to 10 days , right where its' been most of the Winter. Obviously southern (and much of Alaska) will end up smashing all time snow records. Some cities already have, and its only really begun. A truly epic winter there, with over 20 feet fallen at Cordova, I wouldn't be suprised to see them hit 30 feet or more. Astonishing amounts of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 You are gonna like the 12Z GFS in the med-long range Tony. Lots of rain for us! I know, man, looking at the 6 and 12 is what got me so rapturious!! I've seen snow in April.... that doesn't doesn't worry me very much...it's the rain I'm needing..and boom, goes the rainimite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 What??? We got screwed??? And I didn't even know it OR enjoy it! ROFLMAO!!!!! good one and now they come out of the woodworks with "i told u so" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I know, man, looking at the 6 and 12 is what got me so rapturious!! I've seen snow in April.... that doesn't doesn't worry me very much...it's the rain I'm needing..and boom, goes the rainimite Yes sir that's the silver lining in all this blah is our lakes should be full again before March which means fishing back to normal for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 13, 2012 Author Share Posted January 13, 2012 WOW! Flirting with record high temps seems to be the talk now? WOW!! I still feel like winter will show up with a decent storm before spring. With all that cold bottled up, the rubberband has to snap sometime! This has probably already been mentioned, but what analog years fit with this HORRENDOUS LACK OF COLD winter season? TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 The 4-6 inches of rain is not what we need here in the mountains and foothills, it is very wet here and it wont take much more to cause flooding issues. It has rained 3 inches this month already and over 7 last month IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 i wonder if we have ever had a winter where it didnt snow here in greensboro the whole winter. And in the spring are we going to have a lot of severe weather to deal with with all that cold air near by.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 The 4-6 inches of rain is not what we need here in the mountains and foothills, it is very wet here and it wont take much more to cause flooding issues. It has rained 3 inches this month already and over 7 last month IMBY. Ah..sorry, but if we are to get rain, you will probably have to take some of it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I know the piedmont and midlands of the south need it badly.. its amazing the difference in rainfall there has been lately. All summer we had good rain here, but many others are experiencing severe drought still. This last storm for example, we received 2.25 inches of rain, most other places didnt get that much... The perks of living on the escarpment i guess! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 More Snow for the Midwest...Pattern to Remain Wintry! Jan 13, 2012; 10:03 AM ET Disco The map below is my take on the next snowstorm. The West should get hit hard by snow and cold over the weekend, and all that snow and cold will head into the Midwest and Great Lakes early next week. Places that had snow in Illinois to Michigan will get hit again with snow Monday into Tuesday. Using Chicago as the center of the snow, I see 3-6 inches for that area Monday night. Behind, cold weather will once again plunge across the eastern part of the country with another round of heavy lake snow. A lot of you have been talking about the pattern and the change in the pattern. We continue to see a decline in the SOI values, a negative PNA, a bumpy NAO and negative AO. Understand that pattern changes don't happen overnight, and for the whole Northern Hemisphere jet stream to change its wavelength, it takes time. So given this, let me give you my thoughts on January into March. 1. The last half of January will be a bumpy one with cold dominating but also spells of warm weather. 2. Snow will be centered over in two locations. The Northwest and the Midwest/western Great Lakes. Some snow will sneak into the Northeast north of I-90. 3. In February, the cold should become more widespread across the northern Plains into the Northeast. 4. February into March should be stormier with the potential for a major snowstorm along the East coast. Midwest and Great Lakes will continue to see the bulk of the snow. 5. March will probably end up on the colder side across the eastern half of the country. 6. Severe weather across the South and southern Plains may become more widespread February and March. It should not be on the magnitude that we saw last year. That's my ideas. Enjoy! Just saw the above on Accuweather -Henry Margusity.Can we see a repeat winter of March 1960? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 GFS looks really warm in the southern and eastern states around Day 10 through 15. Major southerly and sw flow over much of the area, with the trough in the eastern Pacific. It will change that far out, but certainly doesn't look too cold after next weeks cooldown. It shows 576 to near 582 heights right off shore SC/GA, 850 temps widespread +10 to +12. Don't see that much in January. If right, we'll be setting record high temps in the Southeast around that time frame. But like everything in that long range, its subject to big changes. The new Euro is like this also at the end of the run- the retrograding of the AK block and subsequent EPAC trough are whet will do us in. I cannot say what Feb and Mar will bring, but after a few cold spells here in the shorter term, looks like winter will take a hiatus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 hiatus? winter has been on vacation from the start, with periodic call-ins to remind us it still exists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Just saw the above on Accuweather -Henry Margusity.Can we see a repeat winter of March 1960? Please, have we still not learned that these "forecasts" from InAccu-Wx are just so much hand waving, you might as well look at the Farmer's Almanac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Euro looks amazingly warm, has the 582 height line from Raleigh to Atlanta on days 9 and 10, with 850 temps around +20 in central Texas to +16 in Arkansas, La, Ok, Miss. Has surface temps in the 70 and above from Columbia to Tupelo to Little Rock . On day 10 the low temp. is 60 or greater from eastern Kentucky to Atlanta to Shreveport. The other big newsmakers is going to be all the rain and snow in the west from northern California to Seattle. Flooding will becoming a problem and one of those storms could be a major low elevation snowstorm, not to mention the high mountain major snowfall (feet of snow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Only good thing I see is that both the Pacific and Atlantic blocks are fizzling. As soon as they die and a new pattern is born the better, because this one didn't do squat for us. Euro looks amazingly warm, has the 582 height line from Raleigh to Atlanta on days 9 and 10, with 850 temps around +20 in central Texas to +16 in Arkansas, La, Ok, Miss. Has surface temps in the 70 and above from Columbia to Tupelo to Little Rock . On day 10 the low temp. is 60 or greater from eastern Kentucky to Atlanta to Shreveport. The other big newsmakers is going to be all the rain and snow in the west from northern California to Seattle. Flooding will becoming a problem and one of those storms could be a major low elevation snowstorm, not to mention the high mountain major snowfall (feet of snow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Folks, The doc is back in the house. So, it must be time for another therapy session. Here are some stats for KATL: - KATL has winters with no measurable S/IP about once avery five years on average (17 of 82 winters going back to 1929-30). - Since 1975-6 (last 36 winters), there have been only four w/o measurable S/IP (only one every nine years): 1980-81, 1999-00, 2002-03, and 2005-06. - Since 1929-30, there have been 34 winters with no measurable S/IP prior to 2/1. A very respectable 17 of the 34 (half of them) went on to have measurable S/IP in either Feb. or March. - So, assuming no measurable S/IP prior to 2/1/12, this stat, alone, suggests roughly a 50-50 chance for measurable S/IP at KATL 2/1+. However, I want to see how it looks if I analyze further. - Of those 34 winters with no measurable S/IP, 3 had a cold 12/1-1/31, 19 were near normal, and 12 were warm (similar to what we're experiencing now). Regarding just the 12 with a warm 12/1-1/31 and no measurable S/IP prior to 2/1, 7 of these 12 warm ones ended up having measurable S/IP 2/1+: 1932: 0.3" 3/9 and 0.2" on 3/12....ENSO = neutral 1947: 0.5" 2/28.............................ENSO = neutral 1952: 3.9" 2/26.............................ENSO = weak El Nino 1989: 0.7" 2/23.............................ENSO = strong La Nina 1995: 0.4" 2/6-7...........................ENSO = mod. El Nino 1999: 0.4" 2/24.............................ENSO = mod. La Nina 2007: 0.1" 2/1...............................ENSO = mod. El Nino - Regarding the five warm 12/1-1/31's that ended up with no measurable S/IP the entire winter, their ENSO states were as follows: 1936-7: neutral 1948-9: neutral 1949-50: strong La Nina 1955-6: weak La Nina 1973-4: strong La Nina - We're in a weak La Nina - Taking into acount all of these stats, I still think there's roughly a 50-50 shot at measurable S/IP at KATL 2/1+ this winter. - IF it does occur this winter, the odds favor (based on these stats as well as the expectation of a warm late Jan. into at least very early Feb.) one measurable event of less than 1" in mid to late Feb. or possibly early March. So, keep hope alive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Only good thing I see is that both the Pacific and Atlantic blocks are fizzling. As soon as they die and a new pattern is born the better, because this one didn't do squat for us. Hear hear! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Folks, The doc is back in the house. So, it must be time for another therapy session. Here are some stats for KATL: - KATL has winters with no measurable S/IP about once avery five years on average (17 of 82 winters going back to 1929-30). - Since 1975-6 (last 36 winters), there have been only four w/o measurable S/IP (only one every nine years): 1980-81, 1999-00, 2002-03, and 2005-06. - Since 1929-30, there have been 34 winters with no measurable S/IP prior to 2/1. A very respectable 17 of the 34 (half of them) went on to have measurable S/IP in either Feb. or March. - So, assuming no measurable S/IP prior to 2/1/12, this stat, alone, suggests roughly a 50-50 chance for measurable S/IP at KATL 2/1+. However, I want to see how it looks if I analyze further. - Of those 34 winters with no measurable S/IP, 3 had a cold 12/1-1/31, 19 were near normal, and 12 were warm (similar to what we're experiencing now). Regarding just the 12 with a warm 12/1-1/31 and no measurable S/IP prior to 2/1, 7 of these 12 warm ones ended up having measurable S/IP 2/1+: 1932: 0.3" 3/9 and 0.2" on 3/12....ENSO = neutral 1947: 0.5" 2/28.............................ENSO = neutral 1952: 3.9" 2/26.............................ENSO = weak El Nino 1989: 0.7" 2/23.............................ENSO = strong La Nina 1995: 0.4" 2/6-7...........................ENSO = mod. El Nino 1999: 0.4" 2/24.............................ENSO = mod. La Nina 2007: 0.1" 2/1...............................ENSO = mod. El Nino - Regarding the five warm 12/1-1/31's that ended up with no measurable S/IP the entire winter, their ENSO states were as follows: 1936-7: neutral 1948-9: neutral 1949-50: strong La Nina 1955-6: weak La Nina 1973-4: strong La Nina - We're in a weak La Nina - Taking into acount all of these stats, I still think there's roughly a 50-50 shot at measurable S/IP at KATL 2/1+ this winter. - IF it does occur this winter, the odds favor (based on these stats as well as the expectation of a warm late Jan. into at least very early Feb.) one measurable event of less than 1" in mid to late Feb. or possibly early March. So, keep hope alive! Great stuff Larry, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I don't have access to them (or if I do am not sure how to access them) - but if someone could, it would be interesting to see how the 9 and 10 day Euro and 9 and 10 day GFS looked 10 days ago (say perhaps Jan 2nd or 3rd). Can anyone post them for a comparison of how well they played out for what is actually present today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I don't have access to them (or if I do am not sure how to access them) - but if someone could, it would be interesting to see how the 9 and 10 day Euro and 9 and 10 day GFS looked 10 days ago (say perhaps Jan 2nd or 3rd). Can anyone post them for a comparison of how well they played out for what is actually present today? Cannot post images (private link), but the 12Z 1/03 run of the Euro 10 day was pretty amazingly accurate- had the current upper low in the east a bit too far south and east but was darn good for a 10 day forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Please, have we still not learned that these "forecasts" from InAccu-Wx are just so much hand waving, you might as well look at the Farmer's Almanac. Since you brought it up the Old Farmers Almanic is calling for above normal temps in Jan and much below norman temps for Feb in case you're wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Folks, The doc is back in the house. So, it must be time for another therapy session. Here are some stats for KATL: - KATL has winters with no measurable S/IP about once avery five years on average (17 of 82 winters going back to 1929-30). - Since 1975-6 (last 36 winters), there have been only four w/o measurable S/IP (only one every nine years): 1980-81, 1999-00, 2002-03, and 2005-06. - Since 1929-30, there have been 34 winters with no measurable S/IP prior to 2/1. A very respectable 17 of the 34 (half of them) went on to have measurable S/IP in either Feb. or March. - So, assuming no measurable S/IP prior to 2/1/12, this stat, alone, suggests roughly a 50-50 chance for measurable S/IP at KATL 2/1+. However, I want to see how it looks if I analyze further. - Of those 34 winters with no measurable S/IP, 3 had a cold 12/1-1/31, 19 were near normal, and 12 were warm (similar to what we're experiencing now). Regarding just the 12 with a warm 12/1-1/31 and no measurable S/IP prior to 2/1, 7 of these 12 warm ones ended up having measurable S/IP 2/1+: 1932: 0.3" 3/9 and 0.2" on 3/12....ENSO = neutral 1947: 0.5" 2/28.............................ENSO = neutral 1952: 3.9" 2/26.............................ENSO = weak El Nino 1989: 0.7" 2/23.............................ENSO = strong La Nina 1995: 0.4" 2/6-7...........................ENSO = mod. El Nino 1999: 0.4" 2/24.............................ENSO = mod. La Nina 2007: 0.1" 2/1...............................ENSO = mod. El Nino - Regarding the five warm 12/1-1/31's that ended up with no measurable S/IP the entire winter, their ENSO states were as follows: 1936-7: neutral 1948-9: neutral 1949-50: strong La Nina 1955-6: weak La Nina 1973-4: strong La Nina - We're in a weak La Nina - Taking into acount all of these stats, I still think there's roughly a 50-50 shot at measurable S/IP at KATL 2/1+ this winter. - IF it does occur this winter, the odds favor (based on these stats as well as the expectation of a warm late Jan. into at least very early Feb.) one measurable event of less than 1" in mid to late Feb. or possibly early March. So, keep hope alive! Good timing, Dr. Climo!! And 05 was the only good year I've had for sledding up to today. I got just enough zrain and a burst of sleet to make for a great days sliding. A lot more useful than those big, spring ULL snows I'm getting a huge sleet storm in Feb. I don't know about the rest of you, lol. I just flipped my lucky 8 ball and it said, Yes!!! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Since you brought it up the Old Farmers Almanic is calling for above normal temps in Jan and much below norman temps for Feb in case you're wondering. My hope is that you guys are much above Norman instead of much below Norman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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