FoothillsNC Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Just had a chance to see the 12z runs and they don't look good anytime soon for the Southeast to get cold. The problem is the location and orientation of the closed block north and west of Alaska. That would favor the cold to dump east and south of there which is mostly all of Canada and the northern US, with a trough in the Pacific Northwest and western Canada, mean ridging in the southern Plains to Southeast, and a storm track along the southern boundary of the cold gradient. Earlier I thought the storm track would shift more south but so far there's no mechanism to push the cold further south generally than the northern third of the country except on occasion. It's possible that the models will miss an amplifying wave somewhere but that can be anywhere , but still that would tend to move out pretty quickly without a neg. NAO. That's what's hurting, and what we had last year a strong block in Greenland. Had the block formed right over Alaska, it could be a different story, with westerlies generally further south, shifting the cold further south, and any amplifying system then would put us in better chances atleast. So if we do get lucky the next couple of weeks, thats probably what would happen, a sudden amped up, possibly closed system, but we can't see that coming and probably wouldn't until 5 days out or less. Also, this pattern would favor a slighter increased chance of CAD, mostly in NC if any, but with highs sliding out to see so quickly it would have to be perfect timing, again, won't be seen much beyond 72 hours. Usually big blocking patterns in Winter can shake things up enough to temporarily change the pattern, but so far it's not looking like much of a change in the Southeast from our previous couple of months of mostly above normal temps. We will have to wait a while to see if any effects can occur here. The flow next week looks very zonal, which is not to be trusted but unfortunately when it buckles its' usually not in our favor. Things may change in the second half to third of our Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I would have more strongly agreed with you a few days ago. But for the last several cycles, the models have generally been in good agreement on how the overall pattern will evolve. Zonal flow with no -NAO in sight and all the cold bottled up in Canada as far as the eye can see (with the exception of the occasional frontal passage). Doesn't look like a complete torch, but it certainly looks very unfavorable for a widespread SE winter storm/cold outbreak. I think we're pretty much on the same page. I wasn't suggesting torch in the sense of late April into summer type conditions, but rather either i) the models are simply failing to pick up dynamics going on upstream that will provide something more than climo "cold" (and ergo failing to recognize something that will hopefully bring some snow for y'all a bit north of here), or ii) conversely they are reading the data correctly and are correct with the seemingly perpetual zonal and warm flow. In the latter case it's early spring. I simply can't see a mid-ground given what we've endured/watched and modeled since November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I'd like to add, that I think even the short range models are way out of kilter, even in the very short range. For example, as of 18z yesterday local NWS had us getting tons of rain and T-storms, and being way warm; today, about .10" fell at most, and its been almost cool today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I think we're pretty much on the same page. I wasn't suggesting torch in the sense of late April into summer type conditions, but rather either i) the models are simply failing to pick up dynamics going on upstream that will provide something more than climo "cold" (and ergo failing to recognize something that will hopefully bring some snow for y'all a bit north of here), or ii) conversely they are reading the data correctly and are correct with the seemingly perpetual zonal and warm flow. In the latter case it's early spring. I simply can't see a mid-ground given what we've endured/watched and modeled since November. Oh yeah, I gotcha. I was just saying that I'm having a little more confidence in some of the longer range output as I think the models are starting to get a better handle on the high latitude blocking and the pattern evolution. There seem to be fewer wild swings lately. Therefore, my confidence is higher that things are going to suck for awhile. We'll see how it plays out. I hope I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 As has been said before by many I think this spring has damaging late deep freeze written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Oh yeah, I gotcha. I was just saying that I'm having a little more confidence in some of the longer range output as I think the models are starting to get a better handle on the high latitude blocking and the pattern evolution. There seem to be fewer wild swings lately. Therefore, my confidence is higher that things are going to suck for awhile. We'll see how it plays out. I hope I'm wrong. I ditto you on both the "things are going to suck for awhile ... {and} ... hope I'm wrong." Another concern is that as we get into long range output, with no snow on the ground north of us, sun angle is going to play an ever increasing role. I'm already seeing it in young plants that are blooming 8 weeks before they even ought to show buds. The older plants are still sitting snug though - but won't be for long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Just had a chance to see the 12z runs and they don't look good anytime soon for the Southeast to get cold. The problem is the location and orientation of the closed block north and west of Alaska. That would favor the cold to dump east and south of there which is mostly all of Canada and the northern US, with a trough in the Pacific Northwest and western Canada, mean ridging in the southern Plains to Southeast, and a storm track along the southern boundary of the cold gradient. Earlier I thought the storm track would shift more south but so far there's no mechanism to push the cold further south generally than the northern third of the country except on occasion. It's possible that the models will miss an amplifying wave somewhere but that can be anywhere , but still that would tend to move out pretty quickly without a neg. NAO. That's what's hurting, and what we had last year a strong block in Greenland. Had the block formed right over Alaska, it could be a different story, with westerlies generally further south, shifting the cold further south, and any amplifying system then would put us in better chances atleast. So if we do get lucky the next couple of weeks, thats probably what would happen, a sudden amped up, possibly closed system, but we can't see that coming and probably wouldn't until 5 days out or less. Also, this pattern would favor a slighter increased chance of CAD, mostly in NC if any, but with highs sliding out to see so quickly it would have to be perfect timing, again, won't be seen much beyond 72 hours. Usually big blocking patterns in Winter can shake things up enough to temporarily change the pattern, but so far it's not looking like much of a change in the Southeast from our previous couple of months of mostly above normal temps. We will have to wait a while to see if any effects can occur here. The flow next week looks very zonal, which is not to be trusted but unfortunately when it buckles its' usually not in our favor. Things may change in the second half to third of our Winter. Thanks Robert and I agree. At this point I think all we can hope for is some changes towards the end of January that will give us a good February. I'm not giving up on winter yet and like I've been saying, all it takes is one good storm for me. Unfortunately this is the cards that were dealt to us this winter. Until then I'll enjoy the warm January! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Well, according to Robert's latest analysis and Larry's input....Tidy bowl man.....here we come Sploosh! Wow! In the long range...which probably isn't worth the words I am typing....The AO long term projection ranges from around +3.5 to -4.5....huge spread.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Thanks Robert and I agree. At this point I think all we can hope for is some changes towards the end of January that will give us a good February. I'm not giving up on winter yet and like I've been saying, all it takes is one good storm for me. Unfortunately this is the cards that were dealt to us this winter. Until then I'll enjoy the warm January! and what a warm Winter it's been so far. All my stuff is on the verge of blooming. I have some daffodils, those tend to come up in warm January's but they're open now, and a couple big red Maples have huge swells on the buds. They look just like they did in March 1st and 2nd 2009 when the big snow hit. The mulch beds are a total mess with weeds and grass everywhere from the warm wet Fall. If we don't get into a sustained cold pattern, and keep getting the warmth, I'm afraid that can't be good later in February or March when we will surely get a hard freeze. Atleast we have a few days of cold coming up this weekend to temper the early growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 is it Hurricane Season yet? might as well be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Gfs intialiZed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I've lived in Georgia for 20 years which means 20 winters. Many of them were snowless IMBY. In fact 2002-3 to 2006-7 gave 5 consecutive years of no snow. I have seen Bernuda grass grow in January. I've seen roses blooming at Christmas. Strangely enough, one of the mildest winters I have experienced 2001-2 gave me my biggest snow accumulation in 20 years (7") on January 2. The following winter 2002-3 was very cold, but MBY received no snow. I agree that this winter has been very average to what I have experienced in the past. I think the last 2 years have truly scewed expectations for many. It appears this winter will probably end up milder than average, maybe much milder. However, I would not be surprised to see things come together to give us a week or two of real threats and maybe a hit or two. In the mean time, hasn't the rain been nice? Interesting. I live in Carrollton which isn't terribly far from Tyrone and I've only had 2 snowless winters in the last 20 winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 and what a warm Winter it's been so far. All my stuff is on the verge of blooming. I have some daffodils, those tend to come up in warm January's but they're open now, and a couple big red Maples have huge swells on the buds. They look just like they did in March 1st and 2nd 2009 when the big snow hit. The mulch beds are a total mess with weeds and grass everywhere from the warm wet Fall. If we don't get into a sustained cold pattern, and keep getting the warmth, I'm afraid that can't be good later in February or March when we will surely get a hard freeze. Atleast we have a few days of cold coming up this weekend to temper the early growth. It would be ironic if Atlanta's last freeze is later this winter than last winter, despite last winter being much colder. Atlanta's last freeze last winter was around Feb 12th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 It would be ironic if Atlanta's last freeze is later this winter than last winter, despite last winter being much colder. Atlanta's last freeze last winter was around Feb 12th. that's pretty unusual to have the last freeze so early. I know here I can't imagine that ever happening so early, usually its late March, and actually lots of times it's in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I'm sure I'm grasping at straws here but on the GFS that cutoff finally comes out of the pacific and makes it's way through TX then sheers out....what would happen if it phased with the energy in the middle part of the country? Would it simply take the same path? Or would it be able to pull cold air down with it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Man if the GFS can keep this low on the right path we might be in business this run @144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 @150 the cold front is sweeping through with a low in the panhandle of FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Still staying south at 150 but I question how temperatures are going to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 @159 it's heading south...which it had some mechanism to ride up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 What a massive difference in the GFS. The 12z run had the bulk of the cold in Canada, now at 156 hours its totally changed the 5H look. Cold outbreak and decent trough with northwest flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Well if nothing else this gives the outer banks some flurries on this run @162 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 165 cold sags down but it looks like the storm continues to stay south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 What a massive difference in the GFS. The 12z run had the bulk of the cold in Canada, now at 156 hours its totally changed the 5H look. Cold outbreak and decent trough with northwest flow. Major cold spilling into the heartland at 168...what a difference a run makes and lol at the madness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Major cold spilling into the heartland at 168...what a difference a run makes and lol at the madness. It's like watching a tennis match....Back and forth... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 GFS just doesn't know what to do with this pattern. You'd think it would make up its mind just this once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 @180 850 temps in Wisconsin are at -25...the bulk of artic air is staying just to our north but this is a much better look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 If the GFS is correct that old tale about thunder might come true...of course it's moderating the cold @186 but still.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Major cold spilling into the heartland at 168...what a difference a run makes and lol at the madness. It handles the trough off northwest coast much differently and drops part of it southeastward and allows cold air to pour down in nw flow fashion. That would atleast bring the chance at a clipper or storm track to ride the boundary further south, but its too early to say. Plus this is a major switch in the GFS. It's an unusual overall flow and the models probably wont handle the dense arctic air in Canada well at all. Any little disturbance that decides to amp up riding southeast ward can easily pull down much more cold than shown. There are a lot of systems coming in off the Pacific around this time frame, so I wouldn't trust anything . One small mistake and the tracks could change much more south or north than shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Major cold spilling into the heartland at 168...what a difference a run makes and lol at the madness. I know! Right? I thought I was looking at an old run or something!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I really need to go to bed but almost want to stay up just to see what ridiculousness the GFS out past 240 is gonna bring on this run. Lesson learned tonight, forget the models and just nowcast everything this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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