CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 it's funny...i'm kind of to the point where i don't care what the pattern looks like 2 weeks from now. it'll be what it'll be. i'd like to see an event or two get going in the short and mid range. I liked the trend on the ensembles up to hr 280 and then I was like...whoa....what the hell is this? LOL. It could be waning before trying to reshuffle again as patterns do, too. But for now, we'll just take it one day at a time. Maybe the height rises are a sign of the Atlantic trying to get on board down the road, but it might pork us as it tries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 it's funny...i'm kind of to the point where i don't care what the pattern looks like 2 weeks from now. it'll be what it'll be. i'd like to see an event or two get going in the short and mid range. I agree. We acknowledge the winter is a dead ratter. Just give us some chances for a period and we can call it a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I think Kevin would be mad at the euro op. He'll need more help than that. Even I'm colder in the mid levels. I was thinking that... he may not like it if its rain south of the Pike, while ORH, Ray, BOS, Hubb Dave, etc see 3-6" of snow and sleet with some ice on top. Its not like that hasn't happened in the past and looking at the E-Wall maps it looks like that line may be right around the Pike on this colder set of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Well all the ensembles (GFS,cmc,ecmwf) appear to do the same thing d15. Looks like that's coming albeit possibly delayed a tad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I think Kevin would be mad at the euro op. He'll need more help than that. Even I'm colder in the mid levels. I'd have an icestorm I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I'd have an icestorm I think not sure about ice as the surface isn't *that* cold going in to the event...but there looks to be a pocket of chilly low level air...verbatim i'm guessing it would be sleet and rain mixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Honestly I'm not worried about 2 weeks from now. It's really far out there, it might be transient, if the Atlantic starts to cooperate it won't be too bad, we'll have snow cover which will help, there is apparently still some SSW warming that might occur, we might get propogation which has a 2-3 week lag to kick in and save us, the -AO might remain even if the Alaska vortex comes back, etc. We should focus on what is in front of us. Our jadedness from this year has helped damp down excitement about Wed night/Thurs even though there were signals 2-3 days ago of sneaky confluence. The trend is our friend and even if the ultimate solution doesn't bring frozen south of the pike, getting snow down in CNE NNE is a good step and evidence that the worm is turning. Get ready for some action. I go to London next week so I'll miss some good stuff but I'll be rooting you on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I'd have an icestorm I think Or just sleet. I don't think I've ever seen an icestorm with a benchmark track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Larry is one of the best forecaster out there. You guys forget he called for An amazing end of December and January 2011? He nailed that several months out and in a strong La Nina of all things! Also did great with his severe weather predictions and hurricane season. Ohh yeh and he is a great guy, I've known him over ten years now. One of the best mets in the business... Evidently, personally knowing LC has biased your viewpoint. Don't tempt me to reveal his accuracy stats. Let's leave it at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I agree. We acknowledge the winter is a dead ratter. Just give us some chances for a period and we can call it a day. Probably the most accurate assessment of where we've been and where we hope to go with this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I'm trying - and failing- to come up with analog storms. Anybody got good ones? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Or just sleet. I don't think I've ever seen an icestorm with a benchmark track. Wasn't the ORH icestorm a few yrs back a BM track? And the NW`CT one in 2000? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Wasn't the ORH icestorm a few yrs back a BM track? And the NW`CT one in 2000? That storm tracked over se mass. I don't know about the 2000 one. In any case, hopefully it trends colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The difference in the mass fields for Thursday are interesting. Better confluence I assume, because it has high pressure branching into se Canada, which it didn't have before. That's helping to keep SNE pretty cold, especially Will's area. You could see that cold extending SE on the 0z GFS run last night as it was further south with the 0c line and pushed the 516 thickness into northern maine where it stayed into canada before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 That storm tracked over se mass. I don't know about the 2000 one. In any case, hopefully it trends colder. Obviously I think you and I are out of this one but it's an intriguing look for some of the interior now. I think in any other winter we'd certainly be banging the drum harder for something with a more wintry appeal for some. It's tough to buy a jump to a colder look given how everything has evolved this season. That said, I think this offers some hope finally....for someone in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Obviously I think you and I are out of this one but it's an intriguing look for some of the interior now. I think in any other winter we'd certainly be banging the drum harder for something with a more wintry appeal for some. It's tough to buy a jump to a colder look given how everything has evolved this season. That said, I think this offers some hope finally....for someone in SNE. Yeah I'm out of this, short of a 80yd TD pass in overtime....lol. This setup seems a little different than the setups that trended warmer, but yeah..it could move 50 miles nw and screw all of SNE. I'm just mentally exhuasted by this winter and could care less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Most tv stations kept all rain...and one said mix NW. Good move imo. Wait until 12z comes in and then mention it at 5....still 60hr in advance. That way it doesn't trend warmer at 12z and they dont look as bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 And the way all the systems have played out a NW shift is certainly not off the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 At least we'll get some snow across the Great Lakes region and northeast, so that's a plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Only in this winter would a BM track mix up into interior mass. What a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I am starting to have concerns for you with the tone in your recent posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Wow...I never saw this coming. A storm intially progged to cut thru Buffalo is actually now cold enough to bring most of SNE snow Hey Kevin, what time do you think the snowstorm starts tonight, I have an airport run in the AM picking up some family. Thanks man, are we still looking at 1-2 inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I am starting to have concerns for you with the tone in your recent posts That sums up the winter right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 That sums up the winter right there. Well, At least we have some better chances at some winter weather the next couple of weeks, Better then the no chances we have had here recently, It has sucked for everyone, And in years past i would be in the meltdown thread already,I had held off getting my preseason service done on my sled, I took my sled into the dealer for service last week when i saw things starting to change so i hope i put the positive juju on the pattern here going forward... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Nice way to start off the work week. Storm ON, AWT! I'm not confident in the sol'ns keeping it snow here inthe cp but it will be white in ski country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Well, At least we have some better chances at some winter weather the next couple of weeks, Better then the no chances we have had here recently, It has sucked for everyone, And in years past i would be in the meltdown thread already,I had held off getting my preseason service done on my sled, I took my sled into the dealer for service last week when i saw things starting to change so i hope i put the positive juju on the pattern here going forward... Money has been saved this winter for sure. I almost bought a snow blower...good thing I held off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 2 weeks from now?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 2 weeks from now?? You're harshing my buzz, dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 You're harshing my buzz, dude. Can you put some faces on those people? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 As for the LR, the EC ens start to retrograde the PV back toward AK/Yukon by d15 and we go back above normal in the NE. There's a hint of a little ridging at times toward Greenland/Iceland, but nothing much at this point. Hopefully we can cash in a couple times in the next 2 weeks. We need to make it happen pre 1/22ish-1/24ish. These are our chances, I think it breaks for a bit after that, and then I'm sure we'll see another period in February with opportunities. Brutal wall to wall cold and snow, unlikely, but increased periods of threats definitely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.