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SE Mid-Long Range Discussion II


strongwxnc

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I like whats setting up back west @ 168...curious to see where this run goes

It was a blip on Allans website. Must have been a panel from last nights 0z. It's still showing up if you go and look at hour 168 GFS 0z 850 t psml 6 hour. Strange, but rest assured it's mistake it's there.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/00zgfs.html

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I like whats setting up back west @ 168...curious to see where this run goes

It was a blip on Allans website. Must have been a panel from last nights 0z. It's still showing up if you go and look at hour 168 GFS 0z 850 t psml 6 hour. Strange, but rest assured it's mistake it's there.

http://raleighwx.ame...els/00zgfs.html

try this site out in the future, it's pretty fast and if the next frame isn't available/updated.. it will say so. http://www.instantweathermaps.com

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The models have always gone back and forth. I know we like to see storms show up days in advance, but the models never seem to get it right more than 48 hours out. Sometimes I wonder why we have 7 day forecasts on the news. Anything beyond 48 hours is iffy here unless it's summer, and then it's always hot with a chance of storms.

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Yeah, that site typically updates before the NCEP site.

And it's much easier to post images from it as it generates an image url instantly. I am starting to exclusively use it now for NAM/GFS much faster than the NCEP official site. Hopefully he will get the GGEM, JMA, and UKMET on there soon.

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The gfs is a very good step in the right direction long term. The PV is undergoing a major change from hr00 progressing through the run. It starts to split up and weaken, which is the consequence of the 30mb warming in the higher latitudes and a developing -AO. Starting to think January will be avg or below avg temp wise.

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Any at or above average temps in NC will have to wait until weekend at earliest. The mean temp will be below average Friday and th high temp will struggle in only +2 to +3 850's if their isn't enough sun or a slight NE breeze. We will see how long are warmup in NC is gonna last here on the GFS in a minute.

Edit: Oops looks like Friday will be +5-+6 in NC. So Friday will begin the mini warmup. 30 hours later Saturday p.m. 850's are back to 0 in mtns and +1 to +2 in western half of NC.

I think we break into the low 50s Thurs., near 60 on Fri. and into the low 60s Sat.

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Looks dry. Even though the 0 line is moving down thru Tenn. further each run, the moisture on Mon/Tues. is drying up, and the Thur/now Fri. storm looks meager too. Need Goofy to show some decent rain with some consistancy, or no snow, and no drought end either. When the big rain is always a week away, it is as much trouble as the cold being out there. Need a split flow with this pattern, until that sets up, I don't have much hope for the goodies....unless blocking shows up. You can luck up, with no blocking, with a split flow, and some cold shots. But you need that moisture train moving through the gulf. T

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...time will tell but I think alot of people who post in this forum will be happy down the stretch

Just posting so I'll be included in the upcoming happiness. ;-)  Actually, I rather enjoy those winter events that nobody really expects, like last Monday night.

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The gfs is a very good step in the right direction long term. The PV is undergoing a major change from hr00 progressing through the run. It starts to split up and weaken, which is the consequence of the 30mb warming in the higher latitudes and a developing -AO. Starting to think January will be avg or below avg temp wise.

Euro as well. It is consistent with the previous run with the impending big flip. The storm blowing up over SE Canada should be the backbreaker for this retched pattern we've been in for several weeks.

z5XAW.gif

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Euro as well. It is consistent with the previous run with the impending big flip. The storm blowing up over SE Canada should be the backbreaker for this retched pattern we've been in for several weeks.

both models have good surface highs in Canada and the northern plains. We need those , and that's what has been lacking about everywhere. Only other way to get snow without it would be an upper low or cutoff.

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The gfs is a very good step in the right direction long term. The PV is undergoing a major change from hr00 progressing through the run. It starts to split up and weaken, which is the consequence of the 30mb warming in the higher latitudes and a developing -AO. Starting to think January will be avg or below avg temp wise.

I very much agree with this statement.

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With the AO going negative we still need atleast a near neutral NAO. If we get that with this crazy active pattern it could be a real wintery back half.

Give me an Alaskan block, and a very tall west coast ridge sending impulses down the front range of the rockies and into the gulf, I think I'd take my chances here in the southern apps. With that said, I do agree for many here, a neutral to negative NAO would be a good thing.

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Give me an Alaskan block, and a very tall west coast ridge sending impulses down the front range of the rockies and into the gulf, I think I'd take my chances here in the southern apps. With that said, I do agree for many here, a neutral to negative NAO would be a good thing.

Yep, and maybe NAO stays positive, which makes it tough east of Apps. I didn't look at every past storm for RDU but everyone I checked had a neutral to negative even if it was just for a few days.

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Good signs in the extended as others have mentioned. GFS and Euro Ensembles (and other ensembles) want to get rid of the Alaska vortex and build a new vortex in far eastern Russia, with tall ridging in the vicinity of Alaska. Without question, this is the best look we've seen this winter regarding the potential for large scale cold air moving down into the U.S.

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Yep, and maybe NAO stays positive, which makes it tough east of Apps. I didn't look at every past storm for RDU but everyone I checked had a neutral to negative even if it was just for a few days.

I don't know the formula for the index, but looking at the H5 maps through 384, there are a few periods where it appears the NAO goes to neutral or negative. It looks like ridging tries to build into Greenland/Eastern Canada a couple of times, but then moves out. Hopefully, we can continue to step in that direction. I find it hard to believe we'd get through the whole Winter without any sustained period of -NAO.

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I don't know the formula for the index, but looking at the H5 maps through 384, there are a few periods where it appears the NAO goes to neutral or negative. It looks like ridging tries to build into Greenland/Eastern Canada a couple of times, but then moves out. Hopefully, we can continue to step in that direction. I find it hard to believe we'd get through the whole Winter without any sustained period of -NAO.

Let's hope it develops. One thing is for sure, it's not snowing here the next 10-12 days, hopefully by the 20th the pattern we need is realized.

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The State Climate Office of NC has a nice page that illustrates the positions of the AO and NAO anomalies that can be found here :http://nc-climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/NAO.html. This helps me when looking at 500 height anomaly forecasts from various models.

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Let's hope it develops. One thing is for sure, it's not snowing here the next 10-12 days, hopefully by the 20th the pattern we need is realized.

I wouldn't be so sure of that just yet, I believe it could be in that time frame or very close to it. As Robert has been posting you cannot trust models and with changes coming we may be for a surprise.

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