POWERSTROKE Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 If it keeps getting pushed back more and more, it won't matter because winter will be over. One thing that history does dhow is the later we get the larger the amounts. I have plowed some of the deepest snows in late Jan-March and you know around here that March can be so unpredictable. I believe snow is coming soon to an area near you Brick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 One thing that history does dhow is the later we get the larger the amounts. I have plowed some of the deepest snows in late Jan-March and you know around here that March can be so unpredictable. I believe snow is coming soon to an area near you Brick. I'm not optomistic at all about snow here in February and March. I know that February is supposed to be the month for the most snow here in the past, but the last few years February and March have been duds. We've gotten most of the snow in December and January lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marino13882 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I'm not optomistic at all about snow here in February and March. I know that February is supposed to be the month for the most snow here in the past, but the last few years February and March have been duds. We've gotten most of the snow in December and January lately. You're never optomistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 You're never optomistic I was last winter. This winter just doesn't seem to have a lot of potentail for snow. I think if we don't see things change quickly in January, the rest of winter is going to be lost as far as snow chances go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 It's coming guys... patience. Anyone remember the Storm of the Century? Happened in 1993 right after a big flip. Ain't over 'till it's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 You're never optomistic Well, there is literally not much to be optimistic about, despite the model madness there has yet to be any real threat of a winter storm for the southeast. The models change from run to run but they are crap runs over and over again. If the models deliver a threat I think you will see folks get optimistic, right now there is not much hope to latch onto. Honestly I see lots of wishcasting at the moment, we are all hoping for a storm but as of right now there is nothing concrete to look at. I'm just being realistic, sure we could get a storm before winter ends but as of today there is nothing to look at and hasn't been much to see all winter. The clock continues to tick on Winter 2011-2012... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I'm not optomistic at all about snow here in February and March. I know that February is supposed to be the month for the most snow here in the past, but the last few years February and March have been duds. We've gotten most of the snow in December and January lately. Going by what the last few years have brought us in terms of winter weather is not the way to go. This is a different year and, I believe, that we will have a turn-around for the better. The Winter will probably be above average as a whole for the South, but that's okay. We can still get the snow chances. The models seem to be trending to the pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow86 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I'm not optomistic at all about snow here in February and March. I know that February is supposed to be the month for the most snow here in the past, but the last few years February and March have been duds. We've gotten most of the snow in December and January lately. One reason to hold out hope over last February is the fact that La Nina is forecast to be weakening, and that combined with the SSW event and the predicted negative AO. This should eventually lead to a negative NAO as the polar jet relaxes, and the flow slows down at high latitudes, which should cause the powerful PV over Iceland to weaken eventually. Additionally, the MJO appears to be moving towards the more favorable phase 7, which I believe is the most favorable for forming a negative NAO. Phase 8 is where the eastern US typically sees the most active weather in the MJO cycle, but I believe phase 7 is where the stage is often set with the negative NAO formation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 One reason to hold out hope over last February is the fact that La Nina is forecast to be weakening, and that combined with the SSW event and the predicted negative AO. This should eventually lead to a negative NAO as the polar jet relaxes, and the flow slows down at high latitudes, which should cause the powerful PV over Iceland to weaken eventually. Additionally, the MJO appears to be moving towards the more favorable phase 7, which I believe is the most favorable for forming a negative NAO. Phase 8 is where the eastern US typically sees the most active weather in the MJO cycle, but I believe phase 7 is where the stage is often set with the negative NAO formation. You must mean Alaskan Vortex, I have not seen the PV over Iceland this year. I also was unaware of any correlation between the MJO and the NAO index. Do you have any papers or articles that show the link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 You must mean Alaskan Vortex, I have not seen the PV over Iceland this year. I also was unaware of any correlation between the MJO and the NAO index. Do you have any papers or articles that show the link? Here's one.. http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v455/n7212/full/nature07286.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Here's one.. http://www.nature.co...ature07286.html the article look like it would be interesting, too bad it's a pay one, thank you though I'll dig deeper into this and see if I can find some good reading material. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I found some other ones that were pretty good. One even discussing how the MJO and NAO effects the monsoon in India. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 You must mean Alaskan Vortex, I have not seen the PV over Iceland this year. I also was unaware of any correlation between the MJO and the NAO index. Do you have any papers or articles that show the link? Here's one from the AMS. http://journals.amet.../2008JCLI2515.1 "Based on the bivariate Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) index defined by Wheeler and Hendon and 25 yr (1979–2004) of pentad data, the association between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the MJO on the intraseasonal time scale during the Northern Hemisphere winter season is analyzed." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Here's one from the AMS. http://journals.amet.../2008JCLI2515.1 "Based on the bivariate Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) index defined by Wheeler and Hendon and 25 yr (1979–2004) of pentad data, the association between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the MJO on the intraseasonal time scale during the Northern Hemisphere winter season is analyzed." Good one Jon, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 For anyone wondering 12z has a rain train on us for next week. With cold air spilling in behind it. Should be interesting to see where it goes as that storm looks to really wind up along the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 For anyone wondering 12z has a rain train on us for next week. With cold air spilling in behind it. Should be interesting to see where it goes as that storm looks to really wind up along the NE. Euro has been absorbing the ull into the main trough coming in. GFS is much closer to doing so this run than 6z. I can't be upset with this run, being in Nashville. we're talking less than 24 hours difference in speed of either the ULL or the cold front, and an epic snow for the midsouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow86 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 You must mean Alaskan Vortex, I have not seen the PV over Iceland this year. I also was unaware of any correlation between the MJO and the NAO index. Do you have any papers or articles that show the link? Everyone has already posted some great sources regarding the MJO and NAO . As far as the Icelandic low, that's a semi-permanent feature in the winter so it's generally always present somewhere around the Greenland/Iceland vicinity and indeed a large, powerful one can be seen centered just west of Greenland in the image below (along with the Alaskan vortex as you said). When the NAO goes negative, it just weakens. I had posted a link to the NC State Climate Office's site before, but it really is useful to look at and explains it much better than I can. http://raleighwx.ame...mbHGHTNH000.gif http://nc-climate.nc...tterns/NAO.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Euro has been absorbing the ull into the main trough coming in. GFS is much closer to doing so this run than 6z. I can't be upset with this run, being in Nashville. we're talking less than 24 hours difference in speed of either the ULL or the cold front, and an epic snow for the midsouth. It doesn't look all that close to me, sorry to have to disagree. It does look like a great rain maker though and would follow a path not unfamiliar fall into winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Well I must say I like the look of the 12z in the mid to long range it kind of flattens out and gets seasonal at the very end of the run but it has the cold on this run for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Honestly is there any hope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I am thinking and hoping January 15th, but more than likely 20th through February might be a rocking good time with several opportunities to fill our bellies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 It doesn't look all that close to me, sorry to have to disagree. It does look like a great rain maker though and would follow a path not unfamiliar fall into winter. It looks like you get a couple of fantasy inches out of this run. Not sure why this doesn't look close to you. This looks much more like the euro the past couple days, except its still faster with ejecting the s/w, which causes the phase to fully occur in the ohio valley instead of the mid south. Anyone else having ridiculous speed issues with the MAG site. So freakin slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 4, 2012 Author Share Posted January 4, 2012 Hope is always one model run away I use the 24 hour rule in regards to hope... Great disco on the mid and long range folks!!!! Honestly is there any hope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Ahh -- mag is giving me, for whatever reason, 12 hour precip charts for hour 183. No wonder it looks different everywhere else. This is what I was seeing at 180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 It looks like you get a couple of fantasy inches out of this run. Not sure why this doesn't look close to you. This looks much more like the euro the past couple days, except its still faster with ejecting the s/w, which causes the phase to fully occur in the ohio valley instead of the mid south. Anyone else having ridiculous speed issues with the MAG site. So freakin slow. I have most of the MAG images on my site and they seem to be loading fine. I don't use Javascript to display them like the NWS does. Here's one of the pages: http://www.daculaweather.com/gfs_12z_2m_temp.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Well I must say I like the look of the 12z in the mid to long range it kind of flattens out and gets seasonal at the very end of the run but it has the cold on this run for sure. Thanks Burger for the updates. Keep em coming. At work & have to slide in and out of here. Looking forward to the Euro 12z info after lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Everyone has already posted some great sources regarding the MJO and NAO . As far as the Icelandic low, that's a semi-permanent feature in the winter so it's generally always present somewhere around the Greenland/Iceland vicinity and indeed a large, powerful one can be seen centered just west of Greenland in the image below (along with the Alaskan vortex as you said). When the NAO goes negative, it just weakens. I had posted a link to the NC State Climate Office's site before, but it really is useful to look at and explains it much better than I can. http://raleighwx.ame...mbHGHTNH000.gif http://nc-climate.nc...tterns/NAO.html Thank you and the others for the information. What I love about this board is I can log on read some posts from mets and knowledgeable posters and learn something new. You seem like a knowledgeable poster and I have not seen you on here much, I look forward to reading more of your posts in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 For the midsouth folks... timing a bit different on the CMC, and its quite beneficial for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow86 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Thank you and the others for the information. What I love about this board is I can log on read some posts from mets and knowledgeable posters and learn something new. You seem like a knowledgeable poster and I have not seen you on here much, I look forward to reading more of your posts in the future. Thanks for the kind words. I'm a long-time visitor, but I've just never posted much as I enjoy just reading and getting everyone's thoughts without cluttering up the boards too much with my babbling. Going back to the MJO, my big concern is the recent trends in the modeling to diminish the current MJO impulse - meaning it turns into "the circle of death", rather than continuing on into phases 7-1. If that happens, I'm honestly afraid we may never see a negative NAO become established this winter, although I certainly won't rule it out if the AO remains negative for an extended period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Hope is always one model run away I use the 24 hour rule in regards to hope... Great disco on the mid and long range folks!!!! Exactly Mark!! 3 snows between jan 20th through early March and we would call this an epic Winter in the SE!! So enough with the negativity as there is a ton of time for snow to come! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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