LithiaWx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 12Z Euro has a decent closed off low in the four corners region, no sign of cold diving in from the upper midwest to meet it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Yates was supposed to be system. iPhone error Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 That kind of a look extrapolated out would probably yield a 2-4 or 3-6 type of event. if it snowed in western/middle/and parts of east TN, and some of Kentucky, I'd argue that it was both major (we are in the south after all) and widespread. Now, for the Carolinas, not so much. That map doesn't look good at all for them with what WOW is talking about and I can see his point easily for NC. But from Johnson City, TN. I can get to Canada quicker than I can to Memphis. The state of Tennessee isn't wide, but it's extremely long. I would say hitting 1/2 our state is widespread in my book, but not everyone would share my definition. It's all good though, that's what makes this weather board great. Spent my whole life in Nashville or Knoxville ('55 - '81) and can vouch for that. Quite a different range of topography there and you can get almost any kind of weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 UKMet and Euro look very similar at 144. Closed low in Texas and trailing wave in far SW Canada. CMC was not quite as far SW with the trailing wave in SW Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Hour 168, now we have some action, UL looks to be traveling a tad farther north than the CMC but the cold shot is finally pushing on in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 At 186 hrs, the s/w is moving up into the OH valley with a sub 1000mb Sfc low moving up the Apps. Everyone east of mtns, 850 temps abv 0. This isn't the storm guys. Watch the overall pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 The south is going to be on the wrong side of this Low Pressure it seems. Too bad too because it is at 1000mb on this image but we are all on the east or SE side of it for the moment. Edit: As Wow said this run does not get it done for the south, on to the next set of model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 At 204, +PNA ridge punching into W canada, lowering heights over the 50/50 region.. pattern looking more favorable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Euro has rain then a lot of cold. Good look out to 222. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Love the southeast ridge . Classic La Nina. My biggest fear is cold comes in but the SE ridge is constant which will give the OV a great winter. We have to have a -NAO with this pattern otherwise we will get inland cutters. So yes the pattern looks better with the -AO for cold and even snow but not for the SE. The south is going to be on the wrong side of this Low Pressure it seems. Too bad too because it is at 1000mb on this image but we are all on the east or SE side of it for the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 At 204, +PNA ridge punching into W canada, lowering heights over the 50/50 region.. pattern looking more favorable Yep past 200 it has a really good look for cold air which is the first step. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 The south is going to be on the wrong side of this Low Pressure it seems. Too bad too because it is at 1000mb on this image but we are all on the east or SE side of it for the moment. 998mb to be exact, something to watch though as a lot can change per where this low will move...I like the looks of hr192, not necessarly for us but in general... huge cold diving in along with it...which is what we need in the SE for anything but RN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 For the NC Triangle at least it looks as if the warm this weekend will be what's short-lived. The could returns next week, through the following weekend and well into mid January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 At 204, +PNA ridge punching into W canada, lowering heights over the 50/50 region.. pattern looking more favorable is it splitting the pv? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 There seems to be no doubt that the general pattern is changing, and at a good time for us in the southland. Hopefully we can get something to lock later this month into February. The Euro is just one of many solutions that will change again. It's bias is to hold energy back so while a track into the OH valley is possible, it's probably only slightly more likely than the CMC at this point. We really need to get within 100 hours to have a better understanding. Either way, maybe this is the low that bombs out and becomes our 50/50 for what comes behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Wow! 240 has some major cold coming down the pipe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 is it splitting the pv? yep.. here comes the cold air.. At 240, the PV is split (finally!) with ridging over the North central Atlantic on into Greenland. This is consistent with the past few runs regarding the pattern change. Strong PV over Quebec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Wow! 240 has some major cold coming down the pipe. Yep, the -AO looks great, we just need to shift that vortex to the east some and than we would be cooking. I would guess the look at 240 5h could be considered a "east based" NAO, which is great for OV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 @240 850's are around -20 in KY and -12 for most of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Wow! 240 has some major cold coming down the pipe. Wicked cold... Big High Pressure in the heartland and another piece of southern energy/cutoff near Southern California. Pattern deffinitly looks better than what we have seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 From DT *** ALERT **** euro ensembles at day 10 thru day 15 now showing MASSIVE stratospheric warming at the 'TOP" of the Atmosphere... (10 mb 30mb and 50 mb for you weather geeks) . The SWW (SIGNIFICANT STRATOSPHERIC WARMING) event is now looking increasingly PROBABLE... over 50% chance for the 1st time. Day 12..13...14...15 euro ensemble MEAN shows HUGE amounts of warming and total destruction of super +AO that has been over far Northeast Canada and Greenland since NOV 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Winter Cancel............. UNcancel, lol. IF true, keep in mind it's still a long range prediction, late Jan through February could be REALLY REALLY fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Wicked cold... Big High Pressure in the heartland and another piece of southern energy/cutoff near Southern California. Pattern deffinitly looks better than what we have seen. Shift the PV over central Canada to the east, the HP could move up to the north, and we would be digging out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 From DT *** ALERT **** euro ensembles at day 10 thru day 15 now showing MASSIVE stratospheric warming at the 'TOP" of the Atmosphere... (10 mb 30mb and 50 mb for you weather geeks) . The SWW (SIGNIFICANT STRATOSPHERIC WARMING) event is now looking increasingly PROBABLE... over 50% chance for the 1st time. Day 12..13...14...15 euro ensemble MEAN shows HUGE amounts of warming and total destruction of super +AO that has been over far Northeast Canada and Greenland since NOV 1 The guys in the Stratospheric Warming thread we have in the main forums were bashing him for this alert. Could be some justified pessimism or maybe just some DT hate that this board loves to dish out from time to time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Yep, the -AO looks great, we just need to shift that vortex to the east some and than we would be cooking. I would guess the look at 240 5h could be considered a "east based" NAO, which is great for OV. I'm not too worried with that. We will just have to see how short lived this cold will be, I think we hope for something as it's breaking down into something more seasonal for this month. We'll need to get the timing right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 The guys in the Stratospheric Warming thread we have in the main forums were bashing him for this alert. Could be some justified pessimism or maybe just some DT hate that this board loves to dish out from time to time. They probably wouldn't make fun of him if he didn't do that goofy warning $h1t. Haha if he just said, Euro mean looks good for us because it does xyz he would probably be taken more serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Whether you like him or not... he's not the only one seeing things. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that changes are beginning to take place, all the signs are beginning to show their hand. I think we're in for a very exciting 6-8 weeks of weather watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Whether you like him or not... he's not the only one seeing things. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that changes are beginning to take place, all the signs are beginning to show their hand. I think we're in for a very exciting 6-8 weeks of weather watching. I agree. Just saw a squirrel with a load of nuts and a "Bahamas or bust" sign! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Whether you like him or not... he's not the only one seeing things. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that changes are beginning to take place, all the signs are beginning to show their hand. I think we're in for a very exciting 6-8 weeks of weather watching. We might also get lucky and get a well timed storm that hits right as the pattern has changed. So this weekends runs might get a little interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I agree. Just saw a squirrel with a load of nuts and a "Bahamas or bust" sign! Lol.. that was good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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