DaculaWeather Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Well, at least it is bringing the gulf back into play lately. If I get a huge fantasy storm I want it gulf centered. Don't want no clipper flizzard... I want gulf bombs every few days or so, lol. T I'll take gulf bombs and gut bombs (Krystal's!) ... keep 'em rolling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Correct, my point in lay terms was that it indeed needed to be stronger and generally colder before that would occur. I need to be more clear! And generally the tighter it's wound up (more contours) the stronger and colder it is. Sorry about that then on my end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Try 19 in the smokies, I beleive a hair tick over 6,000ft ( could be 5,000) but if my memory is correct thats pretty amaizing. Can't recollect wher I saw that at. Anyway got to go back into hiding at work. Great PBP/Annalysis. Keep it up for those of us with eyes over our shoulders. No only 2500' plenty of 5000' peaks within a few min drive. If it worth it I would travel. But i will take my chance with a strong upper low anytime in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Sorry about that then on my end. No... you 'da man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Already have one closed contour on the new low that's developing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Canadian is completely different from anything we have seen so far. Takes the low never closes it and runs it right in the lakes region phasing with the northern stream, drops the mother lode of cold air in the CONUS and looks like a blizzard in the Great Lakes. http://www.meteo.psu...2z/cmcloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Canadian is completely different from anything we have seen so far. Takes the low never closes it and runs it right in the lakes region phasing with the northern stream, drops the mother lode of cold air in the CONUS and looks like a blizzard in the Great Lakes. http://www.meteo.psu...2z/cmcloop.html Euro done this as well a day or 2 ago. Having a well developed cutoff get absorbed into a digging longwave is a great release of energy that can affect a continent atleast. It can be a total flow changer, just like when tropical systems get absorbed, all the energy released can affect the flow, and usually does. But that's just one option, it could be like the GFS and remain mostly separate from the main trough. I think if it were to get absorbed that would help set up neg. NAO to some degree and maybe keep some confluence in the Northeast for the next pacific system, which would help us out in the Southeast or Midatlantic later on. But either way, its obvious we're going to get cold air back in here shortly after 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Euro done this as well a day or 2 ago. Having a well developed cutoff get absorbed into a digging longwave is a great release of energy that can affect a continent atleast. It can be a total flow changer, just like when tropical systems get absorbed, all the energy released can affect the flow, and usually does. But that's just one option, it could be like the GFS and remain mostly separate from the main trough. I think if it were to get absorbed that would help set up neg. NAO to some degree and maybe keep some confluence in the Northeast for the next pacific system, which would help us out in the Southeast or Midatlantic later on. But either way, its obvious we're going to get cold air back in here shortly after 7 days. Nice! Another day, another thing learned about the weather! Now that you mention it I do remember the Euro doing what the Canadian is showing but if I remember right the strength of what the Euro was showing was quite a bit more tame than this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 FFC see potentially big problems for next week with severe weather BIGGER PROBLEMS COME TUE-WED AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE/CLOSED LOW ROTATES OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST U.S. THE 00Z GFS IS VERY STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM...SHOWING CONSIDERABLE SHEAR/HELICITY AS IT ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. FRANKLY...IT APPEARS OVERDONE. THE 12Z ECMWF TAKES A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER...AND DEFINITELY LESS INTENSE...BUT STILL DEPICTS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHEAR/HELICITY. OVERALL...THE SYNOPTIC STRUCTURE...NEGATIVE TILT...AND SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT ADVERTISED BY THIS SYSTEM CONCERN ME. FURTHERMORE...THE INCREASED DEWPOINTS/TEMPS AND NATURE OF THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA AT THE TIME FORCE ME TO INTRODUCE TSRA TO SAY THE LEAST. WHILE CURRENT MODEL RUNS DO NOT DEPICT THE DEGREE OF SHEAR/LLJ EXHIBITED WITH THE DEC 22 SYSTEM THAT PRODUCED SIX TORNADOES IN OUR CWA...THERE IS CERTAINLY SOME THREAT OF SEVERE WX WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS SIG TOR PARAMETER EXCEEDS 1.0 ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH AL AND SOUTH GA/FL PANHANDLE IN THE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED TIME FRAME. LATER FORECASTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR CONSISTENCY IN THESE SEVERE WX PARAMETERS AS WE COME CLOSER TO THIS SYSTEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 FFC see potentially big problems for next week with severe weather BIGGER PROBLEMS COME TUE-WED AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE/CLOSED LOW ROTATES OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST U.S. THE 00Z GFS IS VERY STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM...SHOWING CONSIDERABLE SHEAR/HELICITY AS IT ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. FRANKLY...IT APPEARS OVERDONE. THE 12Z ECMWF TAKES A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER...AND DEFINITELY LESS INTENSE...BUT STILL DEPICTS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHEAR/HELICITY. OVERALL...THE SYNOPTIC STRUCTURE...NEGATIVE TILT...AND SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT ADVERTISED BY THIS SYSTEM CONCERN ME. FURTHERMORE...THE INCREASED DEWPOINTS/TEMPS AND NATURE OF THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA AT THE TIME FORCE ME TO INTRODUCE TSRA TO SAY THE LEAST. WHILE CURRENT MODEL RUNS DO NOT DEPICT THE DEGREE OF SHEAR/LLJ EXHIBITED WITH THE DEC 22 SYSTEM THAT PRODUCED SIX TORNADOES IN OUR CWA...THERE IS CERTAINLY SOME THREAT OF SEVERE WX WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS SIG TOR PARAMETER EXCEEDS 1.0 ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH AL AND SOUTH GA/FL PANHANDLE IN THE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED TIME FRAME. LATER FORECASTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR CONSISTENCY IN THESE SEVERE WX PARAMETERS AS WE COME CLOSER TO THIS SYSTEM. Boy FFC sure does jump on one model run and begin honking for severe weather from way out, when they wait till winter weather is about to slap you in the face before jumping on board. To me, beyond 5 days in this flow, it's crazy to even stick something like this out there with models that are ALL over the place. It's almost as crazy as HPC jumping on the possible midsouth snow train from a week or so ago. I know the potential is there when looking at the GFS, but waiting a day or so in this situation wouldn't hurt anything, would it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Lots of rain on the GFS: Do not think the closed low will be strong enough for significant snow in the SE, but actually this time I do agree with FFC that severe weather is a possibility, depending a lot on timing of the wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Henry M. Posted a blog and he has a map that has the entire southeast east under "warmth holds on" and the map was for mid January to late feb.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Henry M. Posted a blog and he has a map that has the entire southeast east under "warmth holds on" and the map was for mid January to late feb.. Just took a gander, he thinks the SE ridge will keep us warm. He thinks the PNA will be neutral to negative and without a good -NAO he will be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Henry M. Posted a blog and he has a map that has the entire southeast east under "warmth holds on" and the map was for mid January to late feb.. Based on what? Nevermind. Thanks packer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 most GFS ensembles keep a middle or eastern US trough through most of the run. If we can get the trough in the central and east to stay put, then we'll have to watch anything dropping into the base of the trough later on this month. 007 does that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Well, 2011 was a year of extremes. It seems only right that it continues into 2012. Except, I was hoping for extreme snow, but it feels like it's going to be to the other extreme, and not have any snow but severe storms instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Henry M. Posted a blog and he has a map that has the entire southeast east under "warmth holds on" and the map was for mid January to late feb.. Who is Harry M? Sasquatch is harry too and I wouldn't trust him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 the cutoff on ecmwf isn't cold as the GFS for sure. At 132 its in Texas and moving e/ne. It does appear oriented to bring a copious rainfall, and even before itmoves east, theres enough Gulf moisture being thrown into the Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 at 144, the cold is dropping into northern Plains and Rockies, and the cutoff is near La/Ms/Ark. border, with showers and rain rotating around it. Ga and Fl. panhandle have heavy amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 the cutoff on ecmwf isn't cold as the GFS for sure. At 132 its in Texas and moving e/ne. It does appear oriented to bring a copious rainfall, and even before itmoves east, theres enough Gulf moisture being thrown into the Southeast. Thinking this system may be the key to the new pattern unfolding. Will it become a 50/50? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 at 156, the cutoff is directly over srn. Apps. Not very cold, probably +4. Which makes sense more so than GFS , this didnt' derive from a very cold place. Meanwhile the cold front is behind this system in the Plains, so they're not close to merging yet on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Thinking this system may be the key to the new pattern unfolding. Will it become a 50/50? I'm pretty confident that a -NAO is needed for a 50/50 low to establish itself. Otherwise the Low never locks in at that Lat/long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 at 168, the arctic front is from STL to DFW, and the cutoff is over VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I don't know any specifics, but it would not be surprising for a severe weather event to change the pattern around here. It's happened before. There have been plenty of times where it has been warm one day, and then snowing here just a few days later. Maybe the system next week really will be a game changer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 at 156, the cutoff is directly over srn. Apps. Not very cold, probably +4. Which makes sense more so than GFS , this didnt' derive from a very cold place. Meanwhile the cold front is behind this system in the Plains, so they're not close to merging yet on this run. Robert - What is the likelihood that the ULL stays separate from the incoming cold front until new england? Having such a wound up system with the cold air so close, but disconnected seems odd. Seems like the ull would get sheered out by the south winds ahead of the front.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Hmm at 180 on the Euro does that system in the GOM squash out or give us something to watch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 At 180, there's a low developing in the Gulf and the cold air has reached Nashville to Houston. There's actually a trough off the Northeast in Canada/US that keeps the cutoff moving slowly, so things are blocked up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Well the EURO and GFS are very similar, the EURO is nothing like the 0z run. It actually pops a gulf low at 180, probably gets shunted off east . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Wow Euro spilling lots of cold air in at 186 system in the GOM looks to be going due east? This could get interesting in later frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Hmm at 180 on the Euro does that system in the GOM squash out or give us something to watch? It does show a wave possibly developing on the front. The front is near the Apps at 186. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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