LithiaWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 The last couple frames of the GFS show some monster cold dumping right into the southeast. It's dry but very cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Looks like another strong push of colder air going way out toward the 360 hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Well if you want cold, the 0z gfs is for you. After the ULL passes to the north the 0z gfs keeps us cold for most of the run. There are some breif warmups but for the most part it is the coldest run from start to finish I've seen this winter. We'll have to see if this continues but if it does, we might start having some fun soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 This run the vortex doesn't seem to weaken as much, curious to see what ensembles show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Jesus. That's coldest modeled weather I've seen in years on Gfs around mid month. below freezing for many days in a row in north al. Even goes in negative lows. Yikes. Death weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Jesus. That's coldest modeled weather I've seen in years on Gfs around mid month. below freezing for many days in a row in north al. Even goes in negative lows. Yikes. Death weather. What? I don't see any negative low temps in Alabama. Do you mean surface temps or 5,000 feet in the air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Nice continuation of the depiction of the -AO by 0z GFS ensembles: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 5000 feet. And it stays that way for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 No euro analysis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Euro is not nearly as cold at 850MB in the long range from what I'm seeing at the free sites. Euro @ 240 E GFS @ 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Euro seems to have a stronger se ridge in long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 For me the time frame to watch for is going to be around Jan 14th and 15th. The 6z again is close to popping something and there would be enough cold air IF the GFS is correct. The 00z Euro looked more "meh". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I agree with burger. After next week's rain I will be watching the weekend possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Cold coming...check Rain coinciding with cold...??? My avatar wants to disappear in a significant snow bank until Spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Euro ENS look much better than the OP at 240. Hopefully the OP is overplaying the SE ridge. There is a NATL high which I assume could act as a pseudo -NAO on the ensemble. OP ENS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Goofy keeps taking my sprinkles away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I agree though the forecast warming event looks to be a strong one and will weaken the vortex. Beyond that, what it's impact will be is uncertain at least to me. A significant statement IMHO. Exciting times are brewing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Euro ENS look much better than the OP at 240. Hopefully the OP is overplaying the SE ridge. There is a NATL high which I assume could act as a pseudo -NAO on the ensemble. Good thing as the Euro ENS is usually more favored over the OP. A significant statement IMHO. Exciting times are brewing. Ha at first I thought Wes was in our subforum posting I was bout to be like, "whaaaaaaa?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Ha at first I thought Wes was in our subforum posting I was bout to be like, "whaaaaaaa?" Gotta get people excited! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 OK, I am starting to get excited about our snow chances again. It looks more and more like things are going to be looking up after the middle of next week. I just read Matthew East's blog post for today, and he said the rain system the middle of next week will be the game changer. Bring it! http://mattheweast.blogspot.com/2012/01/milder-air-moving-in.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Good thing as the Euro ENS is usually more favored over the OP. Well with a +NAO we absolutely need a +PNA, if we don't, like the Euro OP is showing (+NAO/-PNA) we will fight the SE ridge and have no chance for winter events. If we can get a +PNA that should fight off the SE ridge or we need a -NAO, we need one or the other, ideally we would need both a -NAO and +PNA. The Euro OP is all alone right now showing the -PNA, +NAO combo. Let's hope it's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Goofy keeps taking my sprinkles away Don't talk about the Euro like that. The GFS does have about 1" through 10 days at CAE and much more just west and north, no suprise there. ECMWF has about .75" through same time frame. With the incoming cutoff, you should get something atleast next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Now I feel like I need to dial my excitement back a bit. A recent post on the banter thread got me thinking. Is there even a fantasy storm on the models for beyond 10 days? Don't we usually have at least that? And it does seem people have been talking about the pattern change for a while, and the closer we get to when it is supposed to happen, it doesn't happen, and it keeps getting pushed back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Now I feel like I need to dial my excitement back a bit. A recent post on the banter thread got me thinking. Is there even a fantasy storm on the models for beyond 10 days? Don't we usually have at least that? And it does seem people have been talking about the pattern change for a while, and the closer we get to when it is supposed to happen, it doesn't happen, and it keeps getting pushed back. Quick question...If the gfs showed a "fantasy storm" at hr 360, would you believe it? My point is just because the 360 gfs doesn't show a big fantasy storm doesn't mean there won't be something in that time frame. Just like when the 360 gfs shows a monster storm, we take it w/ a grain of salt. Just saying it works both ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Now I feel like I need to dial my excitement back a bit. A recent post on the banter thread got me thinking. Is there even a fantasy storm on the models for beyond 10 days? Don't we usually have at least that? And it does seem people have been talking about the pattern change for a while, and the closer we get to when it is supposed to happen, it doesn't happen, and it keeps getting pushed back. Well we are not getting snow in the next 10 days, maybe around the 15th there could be a hint of something. The long range pattern is better, but we need the -NAO or at least around neutral and than I would be excited. The Euro OP showing the PNA dropping off a cliff is not good and now the Euro OP is showing a slightly positive +AO which isn't good. I think we will get there but I would guess it's end of Jan into Feb, just a guess though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Quick question...If the gfs showed a "fantasy storm" at hr 360, would you believe it? My point is just because the 360 gfs doesn't show a big fantasy storm doesn't mean there won't be something in that time frame. Just like when the 360 gfs shows a monster storm, we take it w/ a grain of salt. Just saying it works both ways. Agreed, I would rather it not show a fantasy storm until it got inside 5-6 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I guess it would nice to see at least something to know the potential is there. So far we haven't even had any potential. Maybe next week really will be the game changer. It just seems like the pattern change keeps getting pushed back. I'm worried it will keep getting pushed back until winter is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 As others have said, everyone including me needs to have some patience. I have been a warmista all year but have been interested in the mid-January and beyond time period for about three weeks now if not longer. As negative/realistic as I have been over this winter I still think we will have some decent chances for some snowstorms soon. Where they setup in the southeast is a big question mark. I have said many times I think the Mid-South, areas such as TN and KY had the best shot at a good storm. That said we could have one pop up anywhere but I'm not very bullish on the Atlanta metro getting a good snow this year but I think areas farther north could get in on it easier. It's definitely possible the deep south cashes in this season but if I was betting money on it, I would say no. And place my bets on the mid-south and even North Carolina before areas south of there. Long story short, imo things are slowly turning in our favor, I hope (yes, I said hope) the new pattern that is slowly evolving will benefit us in the southeast with some snow. I have been harsh on winter this year but even for me I see the tide is turning, as Wow said yesterday patience my dear weenies. I'll be taking his advice and I suggest everyone do the same. There is a VERY GOOD chance that we are going to get our coldest weather and the best pattern this year to fall at the best time possible, mid-January and beyond. Honestly if any one of you had to pick a time period in the entire winter to get our most favorable pattern of the winter I know what my answer would be, Mid-January to early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I guess it would nice to see at least something to know the potential is there. So far we haven't even had any potential. Maybe next week really will be the game changer. It just seems like the pattern change keeps getting pushed back. I'm worried it will keep getting pushed back until winter is gone. Imo, the pattern change has not been pushed back at all. This whole winter season so far we've been looking for a pattern change but now is the first time we're seeing evidence of this showing up on the models. Something else we should remember is a lot of the pattern change we're talking about is still 1/14 or 1/15 time frame. That is still 9 to 10 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 As others have said, everyone including me needs to have some patience. I have been a warmista all year but have been interested in the mid-January and beyond time period for about three weeks now if not longer. As negative/realistic as I have been over this winter I still think we will have some decent chances for some snowstorms soon. Where they setup in the southeast is a big question mark. I have said many times I think the Mid-South, areas such as TN and KY had the best shot at a good storm. That said we could have one pop up anywhere but I'm not very bullish on the Atlanta metro getting a good snow this year but I think areas farther north could get in on it easier. It's definitely possible the deep south cashes in this season but if I was betting money on it, I would say no. And place my bets on the mid-south and even North Carolina before areas south of there. Long story short, imo things are slowly turning in our favor, I hope (yes, I said hope) the new pattern that is slowly evolving will benefit us in the southeast with some snow. I have been harsh on winter this year but even for me I see the tide is turning, as Wow said yesterday patience my dear weenies. I'll be taking his advice and I suggest everyone do the same. There is a VERY GOOD chance that we are going to get our coldest weather and the best pattern this year to fall at the best time possible, mid-January and beyond. Honestly if any one of you had to pick a time period in the entire winter to get our most favorable pattern of the winter I know what my answer would be, Mid-January to early March. We've also been spoiled with some pretty early blockbusters in places that are hard pressed to get them even in Feb. I think that has caused a lot of early cliff diving. All it takes is one big one to get your average and people should remember that. For now I'm fine with holding off for a really big one (which has seemed to dodge MBY for 2 years). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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