Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 There's no precip modeled but I could envision a weak stripe of flurries like the gfs Let's focus on that, dear God I need to go visit Powdah Freak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Tip there is no precip from 48-60 , any snow that falls verbatim is at hour 66 on and that's north of a Portland Pittsfield line. OK, it not just me, I did not see much there on the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Tip there is no precip from 48-60 , any snow that falls verbatim is at hour 66 on and that's north of a Portland Pittsfield line. The RH fields argue for more, and given the strength of what cold air is present initially, and seeing 700mb trajectories entering WAA phase, it would almost have to snowing - Can't take the models verbatim - Meteorology insist on objective interpretation haha, however subjective it really comes out. But seriously ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Let's focus on that, dear God I need to go visit Powdah Freak Don't worry..like you've been saying..everything delayed a month. Jan will be awesome for snows!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 It does look warm but your stretch of above normal weather is going to be gone in a big way next week Pretty sad state of affairs when Maine is not bulletproof around Jan 1. Euro sounds almost identical to the gfs, so all models agree that its wet over sne this weekend. Berkshire cabin cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Don't worry..like you've been saying..everything delayed a month. Jan will be awesome for snows!! Lol yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 The RH fields argue for more, and given the strength of what cold air is present initially, and seeing 700mb trajectories entering WAA phase, it would almost have to snowing - Can't take the models verbatim - Meteorology insist on objective interpretation haha, however subjective it really comes out. But seriously ... I see saturation at hour 66 but if you want to focus on crappy snow grains changing to drizzle so be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Lol yep. GINXXX 3X winter is upon us. HIP HIP Hoorraayyy!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Nah, Will's a talented Met... I think the statement is directed toward the collective - people really are opening these modeling products and are biasing immediately to the most plausible negative interpretation. Look, folks want it to snow before even weather... haha. I finally get that! So, stop looking for when it gets warm and rainy, and focus on your damn snow. If it is snowing 52 hours from now, there's an inch on the ground, and nice dendrite aggregates at 33F, you mean to tell me it doesn't count because it's going to be 40F and drizzly 12 hours later? That's ...insane. really - If I have 1 inch with nice aggregates at 52 hours. I will buy you two rounds at the next GTG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 GINXXX 3X winter is upon us. HIP HIP Hoorraayyy!! A sad day in Tolland... winter ended 12/28/11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 It does look warm but your stretch of above normal weather is going to be gone in a big way next week Oh sweet cold and brown. Stretch of warm weather...thats a bit underdone I would say, ORH might come in at +7 for December, after a torch nov, torch oct and torch September. The cold will feel nice I suppose but without snow it looses its luster at least for me, perhaps it will be long enough to eek out some pond hockey but that cold needs to hold for at least 5-7 days for that along the coastal plain, im sure much much shorter for the interior. At least the snow guns will be blazing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 GINXXX 3X winter is upon us. HIP HIP Hoorraayyy!! You have trolled all of your friends lately, nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 You have trolled all of your friends lately, nice. Noone gets trolled by their friends more than me.You guys all tear me apart. Grow a set Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Noone gets trolled by their friends more than me. Grow a set LOL I love it. hey if you want to see snow. Cod Fish charters are still running, book one for next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 If I have 1 inch with nice aggregates at 52 hours. I will buy you two rounds at the next GTG. Hey,... I think it's possible is all, and I think folks are trying to deconstruct any potential as a bias - I just can't understand the reason for doing this. Here, some annotations that may be a little more encouraging for those with open minds: Is that certain? Hell no... But that IS the correct interpretation (Meteorologically) of what the Euro is saying. If you were in Vegas and knew that, you'd have to be committed if you bet against seeing snow given that appeal. You probably would not take another hit on what showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 I think some of you may need to invest in one of these soon. Sort of like when you all invested in a generator after Irene. http://www.snowstormsnowmaking.com/snowmakerpackages.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 man, that some cold air on the Euro.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Good post, John. Still thinking less than 1" for you and me...no big deal. I actually think it is more interesting that it is not snowing much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 I think some of you may need to invest in one of these soon. Sort of like when you all invested in a generator after Irene. http://www.snowstorm...erpackages.html lol.. no ****. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Hey,... I think it's possible is all, and I think folks are trying to deconstruct any potential as a bias - I just can't understand the reason for doing this. Here, some annotations that may be a little more encouraging for those with open minds: Is that certain? Hell no... But that IS the correct interpretation (Meteorologically) of what the Euro is saying. If you were in Vegas and knew that, you'd have to be committed if you bet against seeing snow given that appeal. You probably would take a hit on what showing. beer or shots, your choice. I feel confidant I will not have 1" down with nice aggregates. The WAA is weak and diffuse, cloudy with snow grains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 The models have been off and on producing measurable precip from that initial band...so they aren't totally saying no snow. The isentropic lift is definitely there...if we can saturate the low levels then we could see some light snow or snow shower activity. I don't think the forcing is strong enough to produce more than that though...maybe a coating to an inch if lucky. The biggest hope was for the main shortwave to amplify as it passed underneath us...and it does it a bit too soon, so the sfc baroclinic zone gets pushed too far north and we end up with a warmer solution for the 12/31 system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Hey,... I think it's possible is all, and I think folks are trying to deconstruct any potential as a bias - I just can't understand the reason for doing this. Here, some annotations that may be a little more encouraging for those with open minds: Is that certain? Hell no... But that IS the correct interpretation (Meteorologically) of what the Euro is saying. If you were in Vegas and knew that, you'd have to be committed if you bet against seeing snow given that appeal. You probably would not take another hit on what showing. Thanks Tip, I'll take anything right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 I think some of you may need to invest in one of these soon. Sort of like when you all invested in a generator after Irene. http://www.snowstorm...erpackages.html easy to make use your power washer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Starting to look at the futiity record possibilities... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 More snow in October than DJF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 More snow in October than DJF? Doubtful...but maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Thanks for the idea bob, and the tip ginxy just got confirmation from the neighbor, making snow tonight in the backyard for the kids.....oh yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 The models have been off and on producing measurable precip from that initial band...so they aren't totally saying no snow. The isentropic lift is definitely there...if we can saturate the low levels then we could see some light snow or snow shower activity. I don't think the forcing is strong enough to produce more than that though...maybe a coating to an inch if lucky. The biggest hope was for the main shortwave to amplify as it passed underneath us...and it does it a bit too soon, so the sfc baroclinic zone gets pushed too far north and we end up with a warmer solution for the 12/31 system. Disagree a little on the first paragraph. You keep siting reasons why it won't snow, and not enough "how it could" - neither of which are on the whole discountable at this time. I think that it is tad questionable to assume the forcing is not enough given that set up. These isentropic lift bands have over-produced in the past on more than one occasion. Or not... I just want to be certain. The 2nd paragraph .... One thing I find interesting is that the main vort max passes 1 or 1.5 deg of lat/lon S of LI. That is typically a good NJ Model low result, but because the cold was eroded - as you said - prior to that happening, there is less focusing of baroclinicity. I agree there; but that whole evolution leading up to could also be questionable. Polar highs sometimes are eroded too fast, even by the Euro. I just don't like warm solutions when v-maxes pass so far S, and there is leading polar high banked N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Wonder if weenie light snows are the only hope tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 The NYE threat is quickly going by the wayside at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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