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New Year's Eve Threat


ski MRG

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Tip there is no precip from 48-60 , any snow that falls verbatim is at hour 66 on and that's north of a Portland Pittsfield line.

The RH fields argue for more, and given the strength of what cold air is present initially, and seeing 700mb trajectories entering WAA phase, it would almost have to snowing -

Can't take the models verbatim - Meteorology insist on objective interpretation haha, however subjective it really comes out. But seriously ...

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The RH fields argue for more, and given the strength of what cold air is present initially, and seeing 700mb trajectories entering WAA phase, it would almost have to snowing -

Can't take the models verbatim - Meteorology insist on objective interpretation haha, however subjective it really comes out. But seriously ...

I see saturation at hour 66 but if you want to focus on crappy snow grains changing to drizzle so be it.

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Nah, Will's a talented Met...

I think the statement is directed toward the collective - people really are opening these modeling products and are biasing immediately to the most plausible negative interpretation.

Look, folks want it to snow before even weather... haha. I finally get that! So, stop looking for when it gets warm and rainy, and focus on your damn snow. If it is snowing 52 hours from now, there's an inch on the ground, and nice dendrite aggregates at 33F, you mean to tell me it doesn't count because it's going to be 40F and drizzly 12 hours later?

That's ...insane. really -

If I have 1 inch with nice aggregates at 52 hours. I will buy you two rounds at the next GTG.

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It does look warm but your stretch of above normal weather is going to be gone in a big way next week

Oh sweet cold and brown. Stretch of warm weather...thats a bit underdone I would say, ORH might come in at +7 for December, after a torch nov, torch oct and torch September. The cold will feel nice I suppose but without snow it looses its luster at least for me, perhaps it will be long enough to eek out some pond hockey but that cold needs to hold for at least 5-7 days for that along the coastal plain, im sure much much shorter for the interior. At least the snow guns will be blazing!

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If I have 1 inch with nice aggregates at 52 hours. I will buy you two rounds at the next GTG.

Hey,... I think it's possible is all, and I think folks are trying to deconstruct any potential as a bias - I just can't understand the reason for doing this.

Here, some annotations that may be a little more encouraging for those with open minds:

post-904-0-99598600-1325098013.jpg

Is that certain? Hell no... But that IS the correct interpretation (Meteorologically) of what the Euro is saying. If you were in Vegas and knew that, you'd have to be committed if you bet against seeing snow given that appeal. You probably would not take another hit on what showing.

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Hey,... I think it's possible is all, and I think folks are trying to deconstruct any potential as a bias - I just can't understand the reason for doing this.

Here, some annotations that may be a little more encouraging for those with open minds:

post-904-0-99598600-1325098013.jpg

Is that certain?  Hell no...  But that IS the correct interpretation (Meteorologically) of what the Euro is saying.  If you were in Vegas and knew that, you'd have to be committed if you bet against seeing snow given that appeal.   You probably would take a hit on what showing.

beer or shots, your choice. I feel confidant I will not have 1" down with nice aggregates. The WAA is weak and diffuse, cloudy with snow grains?

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The models have been off and on producing measurable precip from that initial band...so they aren't totally saying no snow. The isentropic lift is definitely there...if we can saturate the low levels then we could see some light snow or snow shower activity. I don't think the forcing is strong enough to produce more than that though...maybe a coating to an inch if lucky.

The biggest hope was for the main shortwave to amplify as it passed underneath us...and it does it a bit too soon, so the sfc baroclinic zone gets pushed too far north and we end up with a warmer solution for the 12/31 system.

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Hey,... I think it's possible is all, and I think folks are trying to deconstruct any potential as a bias - I just can't understand the reason for doing this.

Here, some annotations that may be a little more encouraging for those with open minds:

post-904-0-99598600-1325098013.jpg

Is that certain? Hell no... But that IS the correct interpretation (Meteorologically) of what the Euro is saying. If you were in Vegas and knew that, you'd have to be committed if you bet against seeing snow given that appeal. You probably would not take another hit on what showing.

Thanks Tip, I'll take anything right now.

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The models have been off and on producing measurable precip from that initial band...so they aren't totally saying no snow. The isentropic lift is definitely there...if we can saturate the low levels then we could see some light snow or snow shower activity. I don't think the forcing is strong enough to produce more than that though...maybe a coating to an inch if lucky.

The biggest hope was for the main shortwave to amplify as it passed underneath us...and it does it a bit too soon, so the sfc baroclinic zone gets pushed too far north and we end up with a warmer solution for the 12/31 system.

Disagree a little on the first paragraph. You keep siting reasons why it won't snow, and not enough "how it could" - neither of which are on the whole discountable at this time. I think that it is tad questionable to assume the forcing is not enough given that set up. These isentropic lift bands have over-produced in the past on more than one occasion. Or not... I just want to be certain.

The 2nd paragraph .... One thing I find interesting is that the main vort max passes 1 or 1.5 deg of lat/lon S of LI. That is typically a good NJ Model low result, but because the cold was eroded - as you said - prior to that happening, there is less focusing of baroclinicity. I agree there; but that whole evolution leading up to could also be questionable. Polar highs sometimes are eroded too fast, even by the Euro. I just don't like warm solutions when v-maxes pass so far S, and there is leading polar high banked N.

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