Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Really think the ETA is onto the right idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 850 temps were all < 0C here anyway. They were here as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 They were here as well.. You will get snow, lock that up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Really think the ETA is onto the right idea I would agree with you if it had some other model support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Really think the ETA is onto the right idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 You will get snow, lock that up Yeah, Hopefully before Feb.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Yeah, Hopefully before Feb.....lol Seriously, 3-6 looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Seriously, 3-6 looks good Did not want to Ginx it........ , I had commented this am when the 12 nam came out that it looked like a high end advisory low end warning if it played out right here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Could be one of those deals where you get a few inches of snow and then it tapers as drizzle. Probably BL issues would be a greater factor 1000 feet lower than me along the Hudson River. Yeah, Hopefully before Feb.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 I actually think I see a glimmer of hope in that 18zgfs run, it appears they intitial vort that tracks so far north dampens out and energy tries to get going south of long island, you could see this at the surface and 850 along with 500 as the model tries to develop some measurable precip in southern new england, hopefully that energy south of long island can become stronger and the dominant player H5 did not look too bad south then southeast of new england, some toasty waters for it to feed off of as well. Will put my weenies hopes on that but something to look at anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Could be one of those deals where you get a few inches of snow and then it tapers as drizzle. Probably BL issues would be a greater factor 1000 feet lower than me along the Hudson River. Yeah, Thats is usually the scenario that ends up here, That was what the 18 z nam had, The 12z nam was better, Euro looked better as well, Rather have that combo anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Starting to look at the futiity record possibilities... Makes 2 of us...? 4th inning of this no-hitter. We'll see how we fare with our coldest outbreak this season starting 1/3-1/4 , but if we're still unscathed by mid-January, gotta start honking this... as I said earlier, the intrigue for me is that this follows a year of other historic off-the-chart natural anomalies. Something is up if Boston gets shut out. 1936-37 or bust... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Guess what? congrats Powdah Freak on the anafrontal up slope 18 Z GFS, who would have thunk it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 I actually think I see a glimmer of hope in that 18zgfs run, it appears they intitial vort that tracks so far north dampens out and energy tries to get going south of long island, you could see this at the surface and 850 along with 500 as the model tries to develop some measurable precip in southern new england, hopefully that energy south of long island can become stronger and the dominant player H5 did not look too bad south then southeast of new england, some toasty waters for it to feed off of as well. Will put my weenies hopes on that but something to look at anyways. This and this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 This and this. That is precip from the cold frontal passage. The GFS is horrible for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 That is precip from the cold frontal passage. The GFS is horrible for most of us. GFS looking more like the Euro...that very weak and diffuse precip shield with very marginal temps. Not much snow for anyone in that type of setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 The GFS was spitting out a bit more qpf from Tip's isentropic band before that though...maybe we can at least get a little whitening from that. Remind us that its almost New Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 GFS looking more like the Euro...that very weak and diffuse precip shield with very marginal temps. Not much snow for anyone in that type of setup. So there is absolutely zero chance the energy coming off the nj coast could throw a little precip back in to sne? I thought it actually showed a little potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 12zgfs did not have that band of precip in sne, its measurable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 So there is absolutely zero chance the energy coming off the nj coast could throw a little precip back in to sne? I thought it actually showed a little potential. No there def a chace...if the energy can be a bit more consolidated south of LI then it would, but right now its a little disorganized...and that ends up causing a wide and diffuse precip shield. If you look at 48h on the GFS, there is a vortmax in N OH and another one in Illinois. That one in OH is what ruins the system for us as it swing up in NYS and focuses the sfc reflection and baroclinicity there before the 2nd vortmax can do its work south of LI. If that first one is weaker or non-existent, then its a much better shot for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 No there def a chace...if the energy can be a bit more consolidated south of LI then it would, but right now its a little disorganized...and that ends up causing a wide and diffuse precip shield. If you look at 48h on the GFS, there is a vortmax in N OH and another one in Illinois. That one in OH is what ruins the system for us as it swing up in NYS and focuses the sfc reflection and baroclinicity there before the 2nd vortmax can do its work south of LI. If that first one is weaker or non-existent, then its a much better shot for us. I thought the southern vorticity looked better at 18z then 12z and there is some precip at 18z hopefully in response to this, but if its just cold frontal oh well then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 I thought the southern vorticity looked better at 18z then 12z and there is some precip at 18z hopefully in response to this, but if its just cold frontal oh well then. I thought you were taking the run literally which is basically just rain from the fropa. If what you meant was something deeper, like Will said, and get the more southern vort to be the main/only player earlier on then I agree. It's hard for me to take you seriously sometimes since you like to troll a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 I thought you were taking the run literally which is basically just rain from the fropa. If what you meant was something deeper, like Will said, and get the more southern vort to be the main/only player earlier on then I agree. It's hard for me to take you seriously sometimes since you like to troll a lot. I take the weather very seriously and get into it big time when I feel like there is potential, unfortunately that has not been the case expecpt once this season...10/27-1029, I hope my passion comes through in events like last night! As far as the torch, it is what it is a massive multi month long mega departure suck fest, but its weather and its been impressive. Nobody enjoys snow more than me, i have not seen a true dendrite since late October, perhaps I am bitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 29, 2011 Author Share Posted December 29, 2011 Tonight: Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 10. Wind chill values as low as -3. Breezy, with a west wind between 17 and 22 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 26. Wind chill values as low as -5. West wind between 10 and 15 mph. Thursday Night: A chance of snow showers, mainly after 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 20. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Friday: A chance of snow showers before 11am, then a chance of rain and snow showers between 11am and 1pm, then a chance of rain showers after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 38. Calm wind becoming south between 4 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Friday Night: A chance of rain and snow showers before 10pm, then a chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 29. West wind between 5 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Saturday: A chance of snow showers, mainly before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Saturday Night: Patchy fog after 3am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 24. New Year's Day: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. What in Gods name are you talking about? I simply stated that I have not seen a true dendrite since October, its unusual, and it sucks. It will snow, that is all. Quit stalling, looks good this weekend and I have a feeling it could get better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Would like to see NYE system trend a little more robust and south some at 0z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Yup, but I flip flopped Stepped on a pop top Buffet, Waiting on the SREFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 srefs look to try and reorganize lp further se, have less precip in nne but look warm, just looks like a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 LOL.. if Kevin's forecasts came true this winter we would have been cold by Thanksgiving, snowing by December 1st, and have about 80" of snow all from 1-4" events.. Oh and at least 3 damaging wind events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 DJ kev spinning your favorite beats.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Where was Blizz's recent meltdown? The one where he said "f*** this" blah blah blah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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