TalcottWx Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 I personally think the CP is obviously fried on this one. Tough to believe this could trend too far SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 and finally the nam caves game set match Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 New GFS does not look good for all of NE. Just a crushing rainstorm for the Coastal plain, valleys, hills, and mountains. Ski Resorts will take a huge hit with this one. This thing continues to trend NW too. No stopping it now. Enjoy the Rain folks! 1/1/12 looks great on the GFS though, I think that is our next shot as sig. snowfall right there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 and finally the nam caves game set match you knew this was going to happen didn't you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 It's still slamming the Adirondacks and Montreal. Good for the economy in KSLK ..the only ski area in the Northeast (US) with powder snow this week. Ends as an inch or two of snow here after the deluge.... as per 18z GFS. New GFS does not look good for all of NE. Just a crushing rainstorm for the Coastal plain, valleys, hills, and mountains. Ski Resorts will take a huge hit with this one. This thing continues to trend NW too. No stopping it now. Enjoy the Rain folks! 1/1/12 looks great on the GFS though, I think that is our next shot as sig. snowfall right there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 no one really bought into those phantom colder solutions did they? like someone else recently posted...onto Friday's clipper lol... at this point i think it would be more fun to just torch til new year's and just see how abnoxiously above normal all the climo sites can come in for the month of Dec..and there looks to be no bottom of the ninth inning snow or cold event to really put a dent in this past month's epic torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 no one really bought into those phantom colder solutions did they? like someone else recently posted...onto Friday's clipper lol... at this point i think it would be more fun to just torch til new year's and just see how abnoxiously above normal all the climo sites can come in for the month of Dec..and there looks to be no bottom of the ninth inning snow or cold event to really put a dent in this past month's epic torch. Looks like we're just waiting for something to change, and it's not happening really soon. To borrow a phrase, enjoy the torch, it's the only torch you've got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Wow, the 00z NAM through 42 looks like its going to be a monster phase and probably up through NYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Wow, the 00z NAM through 42 looks like its going to be a monster phase and probably up through NYS. still a bit weak for my liking my probably the best solution for WNY so far. It's still kind of a "sloppy" phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 still a bit weak for my liking my probably the best solution for WNY so far. It's still kind of a "sloppy" phase. It bombs out a bit late for BUf, but it def gives something there. I remember when back at school in Ithaca, we studied BUF snyoptic snowstorms and their best climo was almost right along the spine of the apps (on the mean)...basically from like HGR to PLB...which of course is a climatological minimum for cyclones that explains why BUF doesn't get big synoptic storms of >10". But this might be one of those types of tracks if it works out...so there is def potential there. I'd like to see it bombs out sooner to try and get some decent winds in here. Its going to be a mild rainer regardless, so might as well try and get a wind event out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 It bombs out a bit late for BUf, but it def gives something there. I remember when back at school in Ithaca, we studied BUF snyoptic snowstorms and their best climo was almost right along the spine of the apps (on the mean)...basically from like HGR to PLB...which of course is a climatological minimum for cyclones that explains why BUF doesn't get big synoptic storms of >10". But this might be one of those types of tracks if it works out...so there is def potential there. I'd like to see it bombs out sooner to try and get some decent winds in here. Its going to be a mild rainer regardless, so might as well try and get a wind event out of it. I specifically know of 4 synoptic snowstorms that gave BUF more than a foot...but I'm guessing there are more. I wonder if some of it is a little weenish...oh the best storms are always to the east etc. I definitely think eastern NY to New England is way more favored for heavy synoptic snow...but is BUF really worse off than Detroit or Ohio or Northern Indiana? I'm not so sure. St. Patrick's Day 1936 19" Superstorm of 1993 17" Dec. 2007 13" Mar. 2008 20" There are many Miller Bs that gave BUF 6-12" in the past 15 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 This run might start as 2-3" of snow for powdafreak...but it changes over to rain pretty quickly. Sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 I specifically know of 4 synoptic snowstorms that gave BUF more than a foot...but I'm guessing there are more. I wonder if some of it is a little weenish...oh the best storms are always to the east etc. I definitely think eastern NY to New England is way more favored for heavy synoptic snow...but is BUF really worse off than Detroit or Ohio or Northern Indiana? I'm not so sure. St. Patrick's Day 1936 19" Superstorm of 1993 17" Dec. 2007 13" Mar. 2008 20" There are many Miller Bs that gave BUF 6-12" in the past 15 years. Ohio and Indiana are wastelands for synoptic events over a foot. So BUF is probably not worse off than them...DET I'm not sure. We'd have to get michsnowfreak in this discussion as he knows the stats like the back of his hand. I'm not sure how the stats would add up...BUF shouldn't really be much worse off than DET...I think the Apps hurt BUF a bit from a synoptic standpoint because of what they do to synoptic systems. But it would be interesting to see the true stats. BUF obviously makes their snow mostly with lake effect, though they probably have a ton of synoptic 1-3" snows as I know well from my days in Ithaca. Clippers do well there. From what I've studied over the past 10 years, New England is definitely the synoptic snow capital of the east which isn't hard to believe when you think about it since they already have latitude and one of the biggest features is they stick out to the east into the Atlantic so the moisture source is really good and it gives a great natural baroclinic zone to their south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 totally being a weenie...but i have a mini ski trip planned to Pat's Peak 28-29...and this is not looking good at all...seems like that ski resorts are melting snow faster than they can make it...another 1-2in rain storm with temps in the 40's and 50's is not good... bad ski-juju this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Ohio and Indiana are wastelands for synoptic events over a foot. So BUF is probably not worse off than them...DET I'm not sure. We'd have to get michsnowfreak in this discussion as he knows the stats like the back of his hand. I'm not sure how the stats would add up...BUF shouldn't really be much worse off than DET...I think the Apps hurt BUF a bit from a synoptic standpoint because of what they do to synoptic systems. But it would be interesting to see the true stats. BUF obviously makes their snow mostly with lake effect, though they probably have a ton of synoptic 1-3" snows as I know well from my days in Ithaca. Clippers do well there. From what I've studied over the past 10 years, New England is definitely the synoptic snow capital of the east which isn't hard to believe when you think about it since they already have latitude and one of the biggest features is they stick out to the east into the Atlantic so the moisture source is really good and it gives a great natural baroclinic zone to their south. yeah it's pretty crazy for sure...I mean every synoptic snow I've ever experienced in BUF other than arctic clipper/windex event has not exceeded 1 1/2" an hour. We'll have a winter storm warning for 6-12" and we'll get 9" from 12 hours of 1/2" to 1" an hour snows. The public will kinda be like...geeze..that's all? That wasn't too bad...because we're used to 3 to 4"/hr. rates from lake-effect. Even that March 2008 event was pretty much a very long duration 1"/hr. type snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 00z GFS is just a smidge faster at bringing in the cold air before the storm and bringing in the HP. One more smidge like that and we could be back in the snow for extreme NNE and forcing the storm to track through central MA to S NH to just NW of Augusta. Actually starts me as 1-2" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 so close to being big for WNY...closes the 700mb low off over Rome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wokeupthisam Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 totally being a weenie...but i have a mini ski trip planned to Pat's Peak 28-29...and this is not looking good at all...seems like that ski resorts are melting snow faster than they can make it...another 1-2in rain storm with temps in the 40's and 50's is not good... bad ski-juju this year Yeah, not looking good right now. Hopefully it will trend back cooler and save a little skiing. If not, there's always the Intervale Pancake House near the base - best pancakes I've had, anywhere. : ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 00z GFS is just a smidge faster at bringing in the cold air before the storm and bringing in the HP. One more smidge like that and we could be back in the snow for extreme NNE and forcing the storm to track through central MA to S NH to just NW of Augusta. Actually starts me as 1-2" of snow. GGEM tracks it just SE of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Oh I pray for powder freaks up slope fluff surviving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Ohio and Indiana are wastelands for synoptic events over a foot. So BUF is probably not worse off than them...DET I'm not sure. We'd have to get michsnowfreak in this discussion as he knows the stats like the back of his hand. I'm not sure how the stats would add up...BUF shouldn't really be much worse off than DET...I think the Apps hurt BUF a bit from a synoptic standpoint because of what they do to synoptic systems. But it would be interesting to see the true stats. BUF obviously makes their snow mostly with lake effect, though they probably have a ton of synoptic 1-3" snows as I know well from my days in Ithaca. Clippers do well there. From what I've studied over the past 10 years, New England is definitely the synoptic snow capital of the east which isn't hard to believe when you think about it since they already have latitude and one of the biggest features is they stick out to the east into the Atlantic so the moisture source is really good and it gives a great natural baroclinic zone to their south. Toledo only has 5 official storms over 12" going back to 1900 (22.5"- 1900, 14"- 1974, and 12" in Jan. '05, 1910, and '78). I believe that Detroit does a little better, but I Josh (michsnowfreak) would know better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 This threat is about dead...but Euro has some interesting possibilities for New Years Eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 This threat is about dead...but Euro has some interesting possibilities for New Years Eve. I was reading about this in the nyc thread....apparently an odd setup with cutoff lows or something? What got my attention this am is the north america temp map. no cold air until you get to the latitude of hudsons bay...geez does this suck. I still think it will flip hard n fast...the rubberband is getting taut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Enjoy the rain it's all you've got up to Canada. Then we get a nice cold shot Wed/Thurs//torch again on Friday as the clipper shoots way north. Doubtful that NYE does anything but give us rain as it'll end up tracking over CAR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 good morning sunshine! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Just fugly to look at Hopefully the rain will sneak out of here quickly and not decimate the ski areas Is it still a grinch storm if there is no snow to melt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 This is incredible, new nam even further west, this is a total disaster for the entire New England ski industry, right smack dab in the middle of xmas week. This may ensure that MRG will not open until 1/10, simply amazing. I am stoked for some hydro issues as well as potential wind damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 For once I hope the NW trend accelerstes and sends the rain to Toronto (sorry guys) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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