Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Stardate December 21, 2011 For the last month or more we have discussed an impending pattern change in the 2-3 week period. It's never happened, change fail. So here we are at 12/21 and it's in the 50s over a good portion of the area. A rain or snow event is on the horizon as is a building Alaska vortex which may or may not cycle down towards the end of the first week of January setting the stage for an onslaught of winter weather by about 1/15-1/20/12. I think it's time we stop using the old failed pattern change thread and start this one. Let's enjoy what will still probably be multiple chances in the next 3 weeks before a sustained wintry pattern takes hold towards MLK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Have there been years when we have had more snow in October than Nov to Dec combined? How about Nov through Jan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 Have there been years when we have had more snow in October than Nov to Dec combined? How about Nov through Jan? Honestly I'm not really of the mind that there is bad juju, but I had to start this one. Aside of a comet impact things can't have been much worse since 11/1. I don't know question for Will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Love the subtitles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Not sure we claim the there's been no pattern change - at no point prior to now was there much chance for any snow. SOMETHING has changed enough to make things possible, and we've also had a couple of days below normal over the last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 Not sure we claim the there's been no pattern change - at no point prior to now was there much chance for any snow. SOMETHING has changed enough to make things possible, and we've also had a couple of days below normal over the last week. It's 30 days later and 5-7 degrees colder on normal....that's what's changed. It's almost 60 degrees in the cities at midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 It's 30 days later and 5-7 degrees colder on normal....that's what's changed. It's almost 60 degrees in the cities at midnight. Yep. It's the exact same +EPO +NAO pattern.. just a month later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Yep. It's the exact same -EPO +NAO pattern.. just a month later. We had a +EPO pattern, last month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 We had a +EPO pattern, last month. lol yeah that's what I meant.. fixed in my dreams we have a -EPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 We had a +EPO pattern, last month. I am sure he means positive because I would love a negative EPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 It's 30 days later and 5-7 degrees colder on normal....that's what's changed. It's almost 60 degrees in the cities at midnight. LOL that first line was awesome... If it can't snow in late December or early January, during the darkest time of year, then we have some real problems. We are getting to the time of year when +4F departures can still bring snow... but that window will run out in early February if its still this warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 Yep. It's the exact same +EPO +NAO pattern.. just a month later. Surprisingly yielding mostly the same results. If this ends up a mirror of the thanksgiving storm that'll tell you how much this pattern really blows. Moving on, where there any hopeful signs in the tarrow cards for January? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Surprisingly yielding mostly the same results. If this ends up a mirror of the thanksgiving storm that'll tell you how much this pattern really blows. Moving on, where there any hopeful signs in the tarrow cards for January? If you read the SSW thread on the main side the answer is "yes". We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 6z GFS awesome....pattern change http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/20111222/06/gfs_namer_384_500_vort_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 It's 30 days later and 5-7 degrees colder on normal....that's what's changed. It's almost 60 degrees in the cities at midnight. Not exactly ... 60 degrees at midnight doesn't prove anything. Again, there has been a change - We wouldn't be facing a high end advisory snow scenario, as well as having just logged 2 to 3 days of below normal preceding this one day run in with warm return, if there wasn't. The prior paradigm would not have allowed either. Not sure why the reticence/ rationalization effort is there to not accept that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Hopefully as we turn the corner, we can get that period going..the one HM spoke of near NY. I would like to see the guidance show more ridging in the west and out by Greenland before I entertain the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 Not exactly ... 60 degrees at midnight doesn't prove anything. Again, there has been a change - We wouldn't be facing a high end advisory snow scenario, as well as having just logged 2 to 3 days of below normal preceding this one day run in with warm return, if there wasn't. The prior paradigm would not have allowed either. Not sure why the reticence/ rationalization effort is there to not accept that. It's snowed every few weeks for 3 months somewhere John. Doesn't mean the pattern changed. Do we have a -NAO or has anything else changed? NO. Same pattern a month or two later in the season. Same SE ridge, same AK lows, same 50+ degree temps (was over 50 by 2ish yesterday in Boston). Is the pattern starting to change...I think so....but it's not really any different. By your logic it changed a month ago when areas just north of ORH and over to MRG got a couple of inches. It's 30 days later so just climo dictates with the same track more snow will fall. Don't make me wrestle you at the next GTG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 first time we've seen this in the forecast this winter http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ts.php?plot=temps&alert=1&lng=eng Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 6z GFS awesome....pattern change http://mag.ncep.noaa...500_vort_ht.gif 12z GFS shows the same . A lot of opportunities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 12z GFS shows the same . A lot of opportunities Go back to the threads from the end of November. People were quoting the GFS and GEFS then too and it was a miserable, complete, total failure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 12z ECM continues to be mild in the long range with a vortex over both Greenland and AK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 12z ECM continues to be mild in the long range with a vortex over both Greenland and AK. ya but euro has a warm bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 ya but euro has a warm bias So does this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeatMiser Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 at some point the GFS will be right...like the boy who cried wolf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 How are the euro wrecklies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Weeklies look fantastic especially week 2 and 3 with a return of HLB rejoice weenies (courtesy weatherx) so nice to see blues! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2011 Author Share Posted December 23, 2011 GFS blows enomrous balls through all 384 hours. Don't hold your breath until 1/15 ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 GFS blows enomrous balls through all 384 hours. Don't hold your breath until 1/15 ish. How long has the PV been in place in AK? Seems to be almost 2 months now, is it typical to stay in position that long or are we due for a change in a couple weeks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2011 Author Share Posted December 23, 2011 How long has the PV been in place in AK? Seems to be almost 2 months now, is it typical to stay in position that long or are we due for a change in a couple weeks? Beats me, but this reminds me of one of the winters in the 80s after the USA Today was created. The "maps" for 5 days always were lagged showing the cold never coming. That's this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Bring in the NY in banana hammocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.