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Stardate December 21, 2011

For the last month or more we have discussed an impending pattern change in the 2-3 week period. It's never happened, change fail. So here we are at 12/21 and it's in the 50s over a good portion of the area. A rain or snow event is on the horizon as is a building Alaska vortex which may or may not cycle down towards the end of the first week of January setting the stage for an onslaught of winter weather by about 1/15-1/20/12.

I think it's time we stop using the old failed pattern change thread and start this one. Let's enjoy what will still probably be multiple chances in the next 3 weeks before a sustained wintry pattern takes hold towards MLK.

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Not sure we claim the there's been no pattern change - at no point prior to now was there much chance for any snow. SOMETHING has changed enough to make things possible, and we've also had a couple of days below normal over the last week.

It's 30 days later and 5-7 degrees colder on normal....that's what's changed.

It's almost 60 degrees in the cities at midnight.

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It's 30 days later and 5-7 degrees colder on normal....that's what's changed.

It's almost 60 degrees in the cities at midnight.

LOL that first line was awesome... If it can't snow in late December or early January, during the darkest time of year, then we have some real problems.

We are getting to the time of year when +4F departures can still bring snow... but that window will run out in early February if its still this warm.

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Surprisingly yielding mostly the same results. If this ends up a mirror of the thanksgiving storm that'll tell you how much this pattern really blows.

Moving on, where there any hopeful signs in the tarrow cards for January?

If you read the SSW thread on the main side the answer is "yes". We'll see.
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It's 30 days later and 5-7 degrees colder on normal....that's what's changed.

It's almost 60 degrees in the cities at midnight.

Not exactly ... 60 degrees at midnight doesn't prove anything. Again, there has been a change - We wouldn't be facing a high end advisory snow scenario, as well as having just logged 2 to 3 days of below normal preceding this one day run in with warm return, if there wasn't. The prior paradigm would not have allowed either.

Not sure why the reticence/ rationalization effort is there to not accept that.

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Not exactly ... 60 degrees at midnight doesn't prove anything. Again, there has been a change - We wouldn't be facing a high end advisory snow scenario, as well as having just logged 2 to 3 days of below normal preceding this one day run in with warm return, if there wasn't. The prior paradigm would not have allowed either.

Not sure why the reticence/ rationalization effort is there to not accept that.

It's snowed every few weeks for 3 months somewhere John. Doesn't mean the pattern changed. Do we have a -NAO or has anything else changed? NO. Same pattern a month or two later in the season. Same SE ridge, same AK lows, same 50+ degree temps (was over 50 by 2ish yesterday in Boston).

Is the pattern starting to change...I think so....but it's not really any different. By your logic it changed a month ago when areas just north of ORH and over to MRG got a couple of inches. It's 30 days later so just climo dictates with the same track more snow will fall.

Don't make me wrestle you at the next GTG.

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How long has the PV been in place in AK? Seems to be almost 2 months now, is it typical to stay in position that long or are we due for a change in a couple weeks?

Beats me, but this reminds me of one of the winters in the 80s after the USA Today was created. The "maps" for 5 days always were lagged showing the cold never coming. That's this year.

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