Logan11 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Good luck to people in the northwest MA BOX zones, but I'm still 38/35 with occasional drizzle. Being that I'm nw of all of you...I'll let you know if I see any flakes..gonna take awhile if it happens. I'm looking for some signs of hope where rain has begun. But unsettling to see BGM (1600') at 41/39 and ELZ (2100') still at 36/34. hmmm...I thought of that but still odd to me. I would think southern NH would get at least an inch more then N ORH...so if they think N ORH would average 3"...then southern NH would average 4". If I were them I would put it in both places or in neither. But then again..I'm not the one who works at NWS I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 The 00z NAM at least would suggest a good burst of lift around 12z, might be enough to squeeze out an inch or two. But I think PWM will be on the wrong side of the gradient. Should be a nice drive in to work tomorrow am for me. May be ripping pretty good. We may be good for 3-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Having a strong feeling I'm going to get skunked based on upstream obs. ITH, BGM, and ELM are all light to moderate rain and near 40. Even ELZ at 2.1K is 36 and rain. Clouds moved in too quick to allow for any radiational cooling here: stuck at 39.6°. I think I'll still get a couple of hours of snow just before 12Z and maybe a coating to 1" type deal, perhaps 1.5" or 2" if I'm very lucky as cold bleeds in, but most of the QPF gets wasted. Far cry from the whiff we were concerned about 48 hours ago. C NH always seems to be a snow magnet in SWF situations. Trend this winter? My time in met school there confirmed this in a big way. Looks good for a 4-6" deal there. Maybe someone can get a spot 7"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Should be a nice drive in to work tomorrow am for me. May be ripping pretty good. We may be good for 3-6. Make sure to throw snowballs at me when my car can't make it up the hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Make sure to throw snowballs at me when my car can't make it up the hill. Wear a football helmet. You're getting pegged. Gonna get a never before seen trifecta...white halloween...white thanksgiving...and a white xmas. it looked like the xmas one was gonna be the hardest one to get ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Wear a football helmet. You're getting pegged. Gonna get a never before seen trifecta...white halloween...white thanksgiving...and a white xmas. it looked like the xmas one was gonna be the hardest one to get ! 12" for Halloween 8" for Thanksgiving 4" (?) for Christmas 0 for New Years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 12" for Halloween 8" for Thanksgiving 4" (?) for Christmas 0 for New Years? 0 for Jan and golfing by groundhog day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 WWA is up for interior York County, ME and central & southern NH excluding Rockingham County. My 2-4" looks good.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 12" for Halloween 8" for Thanksgiving 4" (?) for Christmas 0 for New Years? This is fuzzy math as we are heading in the wrong direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 00z gfs is even warmer. Enjoy the rain all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 00z gfs is even warmer. Enjoy the rain all. Even Rindge flirts with rain on this run. Amazing how far north it brings the 850 0C contour, all the way to the NH-MA border. Pete is probably mostly rain on the 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Bet they have a long flirtation with rain.... Still 37.8 and rain here. Closest snow I can find upstream is 250 miles wsw in ELZ at 2100 feet. You know it's bad when MSS is 34 with -RN. Even Rindge flirts with rain on this run. Amazing how far north it brings the 850 0C contour, all the way to the NH-MA border. Pete is probably mostly rain on the 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Bet they have a long flirtation with rain.... Still 37.8 and rain here. Closest snow I can find upstream is 250 miles wsw in ELZ at 2300 feet. You know it's bad when MSS is 34 with -RN. MSS just flipped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 200 miles to go Though I'm sure elevated areas in the Dacks have snow now..... MSS just flipped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Epic fail on this event. Good luck to those in the white stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Well, fail by me as well. While I am happy the date was nailed in advance (especially when this week was looking rather confusing in the extended range), there was just no cold air. Amazing... Going to be the story next week it looks like too. Best threat at this point is that s/w Christmas Night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Well, fail by me as well. While I am happy the date was nailed in advance (especially when this week was looking rather confusing in the extended range), there was just no cold air. Amazing... Going to be the story next week it looks like too. Best threat at this point is that s/w Christmas Night. Go fail or go home. That's been the theme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 I think it's still a very close call as to whether that southwest energy phases in or gets left behind. You can see looking at the 6Z GFS that a slightly faster ejection and that whole thing would phase.... Probably academic this far west, but maybe material for New England. Well, fail by me as well. While I am happy the date was nailed in advance (especially when this week was looking rather confusing in the extended range), there was just no cold air. Amazing... Going to be the story next week it looks like too. Best threat at this point is that s/w Christmas Night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Must have been like this in some of those horrible winters when I was a kid like 79-80, but I didn't know what a wx model was so you didn't realize everything was failing. You just knew it could never snow. Go fail or go home. That's been the theme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 What a sucky event. Light dusting on the grass, cars and deck. Snowing lightly. 31.7/31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 What a sucky event. Light dusting on the grass, cars and deck. Snowing lightly. 31.7/31 I've never seen an event crap the bed so fast. Sorry dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Be glad you have a few flakes I guess. Some colder air eventually got tapped over in NE. Out here it's ridiculous..still ranging upper 30s to low 40s in the HV and 35 with -RN here. 1" of snow confined to around 2000 feet. What a sucky event. Light dusting on the grass, cars and deck. Snowing lightly. 31.7/31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2011 Author Share Posted December 23, 2011 I've never seen an event crap the bed so fast. Sorry dude. 24h ago it looked so darn good too...at least for the hills. I def should have been a bit more cautious...this is one where the TV networks def won out by being conservative....so if I'm gonna call them out when they are really careful (overly) sometimes, gotta give them a kudos in this one. I think the faster timing def hurt as it really let that southern stream vort outrun the cold press coming from the north...the further north track obviously hurt too...but I'm sure those things were not mutually exclusive. But even with a track like it took now, I think a slower system probably would have given many of us a few hours of solid snow....its basically totally done at 11z...whereas the previously slower solutions had good snow until 13 or 14z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 GFS the winner vs Kevins King Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 24h ago it looked so darn good too...at least for the hills. I def should have been a bit more cautious...this is one where the TV networks def won out by being conservative....so if I'm gonna call them out when they are really careful (overly) sometimes, gotta give them a kudos in this one. I think the faster timing def hurt as it really let that southern stream vort outrun the cold press coming from the north...the further north track obviously hurt too...but I'm sure those things were not mutually exclusive. But even with a track like it took now, I think a slower system probably would have given many of us a few hours of solid snow....its basically totally done at 11z...whereas the previously slower solutions had good snow until 13 or 14z. Yeah that speed did hurt. But seriously...how many times would you have to go so cautious with a storm going south of ACK for the nrn ORH hills. Only in this winter. I mentioned some thoughts yesterday about going conservative. The writing was on the wall for the area yesterday morning. My heart sunk when I saw the euro weenie maps. But I at least thought the hills could do a little better for sure. Gotta give the GFS props too. Two big wins this week. It's warm look may have had the right idea this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 It was sort of a catch 22... Colder, but moisture suppressed, versus milder and further north, but just rain. Which is kind of the story of this winter ...how to mix cold air and moisture. 24h ago it looked so darn good too...at least for the hills. I def should have been a bit more cautious...this is one where the TV networks def won out by being conservative....so if I'm gonna call them out when they are really careful (overly) sometimes, gotta give them a kudos in this one. I think the faster timing def hurt as it really let that southern stream vort outrun the cold press coming from the north...the further north track obviously hurt too...but I'm sure those things were not mutually exclusive. But even with a track like it took now, I think a slower system probably would have given many of us a few hours of solid snow....its basically totally done at 11z...whereas the previously slower solutions had good snow until 13 or 14z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 The Euro weenie maps at 12Z were still putting out 5 inches of snow here. I didn't look at them at 0Z because it didn't really matter by then.... Yeah that speed did hurt. But seriously...how many times would you have to go so cautious with a storm going south of ACK for the nrn ORH hills. Only in this winter. I mentioned some thoughts yesterday about going conservative. The writing was on the wall for the area yesterday morning. My heart sunk when I saw the euro weenie maps. But I at least thought the hills could do a little better for sure. Gotta give the GFS props too. Two big wins this week. It's warm look may have had the right idea this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 I wish i could take one of those "Men In Black" pens. Just point it at me and erase the last 7 weeks from my memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Kudos to the Euro for being the only model to see this wave from last weekend.Other than that it sucked. I don't buy all the back slapping of the GFS. It had this storm near Bermuda while the Euro had us getting snow. The GFS gave us snow too remember just not as much. Every model failed. We have seen our last accumulating snowfall of the cold season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Kudos to the Euro for being the only model to see this wave from last weekend.Other than that it sucked. I don't buy all the back slapping of the GFS. It had this storm near Bermuda while the Euro had us getting snow. The GFS gave us snow too remember just not as much. Every model failed. We have seen our last accumulating snowfall of the cold season. Who cares, the euro was too cold for a while until yesterday. Both models failed, but the warmer GFS thermal profile ended up better. Euro and ensembles also had a big day 5-6 fail. I don't mind the op failing, but for the ensembles to fail like that is kind of bad. Goes to show you even the better models can have problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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