dendrite Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 your avatar shows 35 That's K1P1...not here. My station temp is in my sig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I'll let someone have the honors or starting the obs thread for this storm as long as it isn't torchylibations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Well in the heat of things you were still trying to keep everyone in check and i could see you being cautious with your post to everyone that were looking thru there weenie goggles on this event and letting them know the areas that you thought were going to be on the fence, The models took a pretty big shift NW today that i don't really think alot expected it to go that far NW, But in this crap pattern there is really nothing to stop it either. People who live near the spine of the ORH hills within 5 or 10 miles from NH border and the nrn parts of the east Berk slopes could still eek out a surprise 3-4" if we have a good burst of lift. Otherwise it may be a general 1-3" for them. The monads will do well I think. Probably 4-5" there a good bet..esp north of AFN. Maybe ORH gets an inch or slightly better..but it may be a toaster for them. It still looks awesome for the higher spots of VT-CNH and Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I'll let someone have the honors or starting the obs thread for this storm as long as it isn't torchylibations. LOL well the wishcasting did not work, plus I am pulling for you clowns, I have good juju, but i have other good news the weeklies look fantastic weeks 2 and 3 with high latitude blocking returning and below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I'll let someone have the honors or starting the obs thread for this storm as long as it isn't torchylibations. and by the way........what else in sam hell i am supposed to talk about after the warmest fall ever in parts of the area and a dec that has been a complete torch with 0 snow in boston LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I know it's early to already know the result, but I probably hugged the euro and SREFs too hard. I know I started poo-pooing it this morning, but I went against my gut and may have been too bullish this morning. Even 1-3 in ORH is likely not gonna come close..I wouldn't be shocked if they get a coating. I wrote it off for me yesterday and Kevin early this morning..and thought I might be too negative, but not nearly negative enough. Hopefully GC ad Dave can pull off an inch or two, but the only way it could be better is if we have a huge omega burst. There is a chance that Rt corridor above 1000ft could pull of an advisory. Those thoughts I put forth this morning on why this gave me pause are probably going to happen for many of us. Don't be so hard on yourself! Without digging up the quotes, it was confidently insisted by many up to Wednesday night that one should never take the GFS or GEFS over higher-res EURO and NAM and during SWFEs... this despite the ridiculous "elephant" warm air mass and stubborn seasonal pattern. Let's commit this event to memory, because this has happened before: GFS totally schooled the EURO and NAM this time, 12/23/2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 and by the way........what else in sam hell i am supposed to talk about after the warmest fall ever in parts of the area and a dec that has been a complete torch with 0 snow in boston LOL The amazing snowpack in the berks of course. I'm just in awe of what is occurring at this point and you can't sugar coat it any way to say that this has been even remotely a good season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 At least a few folks in GC will have a white xmas...all is not lost. Prayers answered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I know it's early to already know the result, but I probably hugged the euro and SREFs too hard. I know I started poo-pooing it this morning, but I went against my gut and may have been too bullish this morning. Even 1-3 in ORH is likely not gonna come close..I wouldn't be shocked if they get a coating. I wrote it off for me yesterday and Kevin early this morning..and thought I might be too negative, but not nearly negative enough. Hopefully GC ad Dave can pull off an inch or two, but the only way it could be better is if we have a huge omega burst. There is a chance that Rt corridor above 1000ft could pull of an advisory. Those thoughts I put forth this morning on why this gave me pause are probably going to happen for many of us. My only request to Santa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 and by the way........what else in sam hell i am supposed to talk about after the warmest fall ever in parts of the area and a dec that has been a complete torch with 0 snow in boston LOL I'm j/k man. lolSeriously though...someone in CNE/NNE start an obs thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 What I find amazing and you know its bad when a low tracks south of the SNE mainland in late December, and yet it is still warm enough in NNE for BTV to say that accumulations will mostly be only on grassy surfaces in the valleys with not much road impact. That's the craziest part of all of this. The low is going to track south of the areas that are getting rain by hundreds of miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Don't be so hard on yourself! Without digging up the quotes, it was confidently insisted by many up to Wednesday night that one should never take the GFS or GEFS over higher-res EURO and NAM and during SWFEs... this despite the ridiculous "elephant" warm air mass and stubborn seasonal pattern. Let's commit this event to memory, because this has happened before: GFS totally schooled the EURO and NAM this time, 12/23/2011. Eh..when the trends and data are starting to collapse on you, amid a fail pattern...the writing is usually on the wall. I think the nw trend..and a rather substantial one at that being so close to the actual start time, is what did it. I didn't anticipate that..and usually euro/ec ensembles/SREFs are a good combo. I probably wouldn't have changed my tune much if they showed it again. However, the euro boundary layer sucked when I dug further and that's what made me down on the event. But we'll see what happens. Maybe a big omega burst will surprise some higher el folk. No big deal for me, as I told clients in cstl areas not to worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Meh... even if it came the way we were hoping it would only have been 1-2" for most I appreciate all of the effort the pro mets and knowledgeable weenies have put into tracking and analyzing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Things are slowly coming around.... 38.3 now. 38/37, still expecting some white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 48F . . . Time to plant the bulbs tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 bdr dew down to 35, obviously some drier air draining down the housatonic and ct river valleys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 38/35 here ..... guess it's tough to get anything lower....so gonna need snowflakes later to try and cool that last 1k feet or so. bdr dew down to 35, obviously some drier air draining down the housatonic and ct river valleys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 38/37, still expecting some white. Yeah you should get some..I just think you'll want to be more north for bigger snows, but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 I wonder if we'll find that the ra/sn line will collapse south and then stop somewhere in between the NH border and I-90 as the low develops to the south ans warmer air begins to move back north again. Where that line stops will be critical as to how much snow will fall. It may mean the difference between 1" and 4" in about 10-15 miles, so it's a tricky call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Yeah you should get some..I just think you'll want to be more north for bigger snows, but who knows. Based on my current thoughts, I like the southern Vermont, through Sullivan-northern Merrimack-Belknap-southern Carroll counties, into maybe far northern York County. Especially at elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 bdr dew down to 35, obviously some drier air draining down the housatonic and ct river valleys. Lol, stop wasting your time looking at dews for a rain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Yeah you should get some..I just think you'll want to be more north for bigger snows, but who knows. I should at least get enough to secure the white X-mas. 1400' should assist. My truck is loaded with the skis and we're going on the hunt pre-dawn. My buddy from AK is being such a good friend feigning excitement chasing after a dusting.lol Nonetheless, snow is snow and I'll be grateful for every flake. (Alyeska has had 338" since Oct.1st)lol You guys are going to miss me soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Just returned from Target down in Hadley (30 or so miles away). On the truck thermometer: 50 Target Parking Lot 49 UMass 48 Deerfield 46-47 (bounced around) in G'field/I-91 41 at the Pit. Anticipating a big bust--and I don't mean Miser's avatars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Based on my current thoughts, I like the southern Vermont, through Sullivan-northern Merrimack-Belknap-southern Carroll counties, into maybe far northern York County. Especially at elevation. Yeah they look like good spots. I would think areas farther north also will do darn good...but I admit I haven't looked all that close there. I'm also thinking that high el spots near the MA/NH border and from ski MRG on north could do well in a 3 hr dump. We'll have to watch that. It might suck, but those areas like 5-10 miles from the border at 1000ft or higher may have some ok totals if the lift id there. Not very confident on that..just throwing it out there as something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Yeah they look like good spots. I would think areas farther north also will do darn good...but I admit I haven't looked all that close there. I'm also thinking that high el spots near the MA/NH border and from ski MRG on north could do well in a 3 hr dump. We'll have to watch that. It might suck, but those areas like 5-10 miles from the border at 1000ft or higher may have some ok totals if the lift id there. Not very confident on that..just throwing it out there as something to watch. How much stock do you put in the RUC for this type of semi-event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Despite the 00z soundings, we will be undergoing WAA aloft..especially on the Albany sounding. It's possible 850 temps warm a tad after 00z before falling after 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Where the hell is Messenger with his SE trend fetish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Where the hell is Messenger with his SE trend fetish? Joe's NW trend has pummeled it into submission He did a nice job calling for this early on (others did, too) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 How much stock do you put in the RUC for this type of semi-event? It might not do too bad, but it does have a bit of a warm bias. The HRRR gives you about 2" or so by 12z. It might have the right idea of a warm bias given this pattern..lol. The RUC did cool off a tad for you from the 21z run, but loop 850 temps. Look how they warm before they crash south again. That's gonna port a lot of people except may far nrn areas of the state..or nw areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Yeah they look like good spots. I would think areas farther north also will do darn good...but I admit I haven't looked all that close there. I'm also thinking that high el spots near the MA/NH border and from ski MRG on north could do well in a 3 hr dump. We'll have to watch that. It might suck, but those areas like 5-10 miles from the border at 1000ft or higher may have some ok totals if the lift id there. Not very confident on that..just throwing it out there as something to watch. Oh I agree, I pointed those areas out from a pure dynamics stand point. That looks like where everything is coming together the best. But to the north I think ratios will help out, as the SREF hints at 100 mb deep DGZ all the way to the spine of the Whites. I also think you're right about farther south at elevation. There will be a pretty good period (starting 09zish?) of lift that might give them a late shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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