Baum Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I'm going with the Euro at this point. Until the models quit jumping all over I won't put much faith in them. The Euro seems to be holding with the suppressed solution consistently for the last 24 hours or so, while the other models have jumped to showing a decent system after being suppressed. With this energy being out over the Pacific we won't have a good idea where that shortwave hits the coast until probably around 12hrs before it happens. In this forecasters mind another headache with so much variability in the models but I am riding the Euro as of now. Hey Justin, saw one met today stating the Euro weeklies are still showing no blocking well into January. Any thoughts? Recognize this does not apply to this particular threat so its OT here. Just wondered? Same met did say while cold was lacking still consistent storm threats... one more note. It appears your concerns just before thanksgiving on this pattern turned out to be spot on. While not popular in this forum. Congrats. I am sure it was an assist to your clients. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Baum, consistency right now I think is everything. Until the pattern gives me a reason to believe its going to change, I think its more of the same in the long range as well. There is nothing resembling a "cold" signal showing up. The models do try and show it, it seems, consistently 10 days and beyond only to never come to fruition. I believe we are looking at a mild pattern, relatively speaking, into the first part of January at least. I think it'll flip, but its going to take a while for the whole global circulation to re-adjust when it does. And many of us may not be to happy when it does, because I can see the threats being mainly confined to the Ohio River Valley and New England. Just a big, nice and dry cold dome over the middle of the country with a few clippers sprinkled in with not a lot of moisture....that's my guess for what happens when it does flip. It won't be a popular pattern. February is probably the month where a lot of us get hit good, then I think an early Spring starts in March and so long to the snow. Not trying to be a Debbie Downer with this talk, but I don't have a lot of hope for the Winter for much of the Midwest...compare the upper-air charts from last year to this year and its an entirely different pattern and its been persistent for months. Hard to go against things when they are persistent/consistent. The storminess is certainly there, but a lot of these systems have trouble with no cold air being present, or widespread cold air. Snow cover is also lacking across the Upper Midwest and up into a good part of Canada to our Northwest too which is troubling. Not good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Hey Justin, saw one met today stating the Euro weeklies are still showing no blocking well into January. Any thoughts? Recognize this does not apply to this particular threat so its OT here. Just wondered? Same met did say while cold was lacking still consistent storm threats... one more note. It appears your concerns just before thanksgiving on this pattern turned out to be spot on. While not popular in this forum. Congrats. I am sure it was an assist to your clients. It'd be nice if you stopped with the comment bolded above. Everyone is pretty well behaved considering the lack of winter. People are here for winter and their love of it...and that seems to bother you for some reason. But it is what it is right now...and will be going forward. No reason to try starting something that isn't there IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 It'd be nice if you stopped with the comment bolded above. Everyone is pretty well behaved considering the lack of winter. People are here for winter and their love of it...and that seems to bother you for some reason. But it is what it is right now...and will be going forward. No reason to try starting something that isn't there IMHO. Thats all he does. I for one haven't really complained yet. It's only mid Decemeber. If it turns out to be a bad winter, oh well. Maybe chasing starts early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Thats all he does. I for one haven't really complained yet. It's only mid Decemeber. If it turns out to be a bad winter, oh well. Maybe chasing starts early. The wildcard is its only mid December and the pattern can flip on a dime, no reason for anyone to jump ledges. I'm sure by the time its all said and done many places will be close to seasonal averages.... a somewhat subpar Winter is possible sure. But, considering we've had bumper crops of snow the last few Winters, the law of averages comes into play too. A big Winter and a subpar Winter= avg. Gotta keep that in mind... these last few years have produced very high snows over large parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Thanks, Justin. Appreciate the feedback. Sorry, fellas it just seems anybody " not "positive on winter weather or completely agreeable to certain opinions gets mocked or flamed on this board the last several seasons. I understand the frustration with Decemeber thus far for snow lovers. At the same time I value and appreciate the input and generosity of the pro mets on the board whether positve or negative to my personal hopes. edit: 00Z NAM shows the clipper giving some to the north and east of Chi Town a little bit of hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 more than that, atleast that run. 12z GFS even further north, huge changes from the 0z run. I took into consideration the poor snow growth and marginal profiles, and thus adjusted the snowfall relative to QPF accordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Thanks, Justin. Appreciate the feedback. Sorry, fellas it just seems anybody " not "positive on winter weather or completely agreeable to certain opinions gets mocked or flamed on this board the last several seasons. I understand the frustration with Decemeber thus far for snow lovers. At the same time I value and appreciate the input and generosity of the pro mets on the board whether positve or negative to my personal hopes. Nobody, here with good intentions, is being mocked or flamed in THIS sub-forum. This winter sucks so far, but everyone has taken it pretty well IMO...and not attacked any pro mets in THIS sub-forum. Please stop trying to start something that's not there. Seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 0z NAM coming in with stronger high compard to the GFS in the pac nw/nrn plains bringing down colder air with our system developing on the NM/TX border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 You are wrong,I will be sure to point them out as they occur. Because they have been going on incessantly by a few for the last two years and it needs to be squelched. As for your winter concerns here you go... BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi "Wait'll you get a load of the motherlode of arctic air that shows up in western Canada in Jan. Warmingistas, get ready to make excuses" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 You are wrong,I will be sure to point them out as they occur. Because they have been going on incessantly by a few for the last two years and it needs to be squelched. As for your winter concerns here you go... Says the guy that has bashed LOT on here...numerous times. One doesn't have to go too far back in your posting history to see it. Hypocrite much? Drop the schtick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 yes, I think LOT is poor. That is not a secret. Further, i think some of the new forecasters there that get kudos here are clearly guilty of hype. Sad to see Merzlock go. Fair and quality. And yes,i think some posters here with ties to that office are allowed to disrespect others because of that. Sad. No hypocrisy here. Anything else...PM me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 GFS going to be coming south and nice run here me thinks, much colder air in the nrn plains compared to the previous run as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 18z GFS is showing 1-2" for Madison over a long period of time. Too far out to take model details seriously, but at least we've got something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Completely pointless to check soundings at this point, but that might be mostly snow for YYZ per the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 00Z GFS for sh*** and giggles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 00Z GFS for sh*** and giggles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 00Z GFS for sh*** and giggles. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 GFS= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 GFS has definitely trended towards general solution the Euro's been showing for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 00Z GFS for sh*** and giggles. Need a nudge south here, but I do like how it is now consistent with showing a swath of snow on the northern fringe of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 GFS has definitely trended towards general solution the Euro's been showing for days. Let's hope the 00z Euro has a stripe of good snow for those on the northern fringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Let's hope the 00z Euro has a stripe of good snow for those on the northern fringe. We will have to hope the 12z run shows it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 00z Euro is a bag of lols Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 00z Euro is a bag of lols Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 GFS has definitely trended towards general solution the Euro's been showing for days. Actually they have done a bit of a flip flop as the GFS was the strongly suppressed solution initially with the ECMWF phasing the southern anomaly ahead of the northern stream wave. Now the ECMWF biffs the phase and it dumps across the plains and fills before being caught up when it is in a much weaker state. Now the GFS is kicking the southern anomaly out with wave number one and partially phasing resulting in a sharp and elongated deformation zone in association with the strong PV across Canada. Tough forecast, but plain old pattern persistence favors ECMWF and a suppressed solution. If the GFS does manage to pan out then it will be a nice pleasant surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Here's to rooting for the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Both the 00z and 06z look good for accumulating snow in MBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Both the 00z and 06z look good for accumulating snow in MBY We're going to be crying in our eggnogs me thinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 GFS keeping hope alive. On the plus side, gulf connection and moisture return looks fantastic, on the down side, there still won't be any real cold air. I'm coming around to the possibility of a band of snow in the region...but it's going to be narrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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