Thundersnow12 Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 GEM came back south lol get out a dart board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Agreed. We are looking at a massive hunk of the midwest that is running below normal, not just a few isolated areas. Too many people on this board are IMBY and don't realize just how many snowstorms it will take for the region as a whole to break close to even. Look at the snowfall deficits that have built up in the northern midwest. Its going to take an incredible pattern that rocks Duluth as equally hard as Indianapolis. Otherwise, its a safe bet that several sites in the midwest will be below average come April, just a matter of where at this point. I tend to agree. It would take quite the stroke of luck to get everyone above average snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Winter may be off to a horrible start but folks we've got 3 and a half months! Look at the storm pattern we had last April, if anything even close to that breaks out we'll be buried under snow out here in Great Lakes. Come on it's mid December, long way to go Good point... 1998 was off to a start like this, but then some areas of the Midwest got dumped on in January and March. That easily made up for the lack of snow in December. All it would take at this point for areas like Chicago, Milwaukee, Madison, etc. is one good 10" snowfall and were back on track! I had snow on April 18th last year! Crazy that Winnepeg and Edmonton don't have a snowpack yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Looks like RN to SN event on the Euro from Northern IL to MI. BL temps certainly marginal, but 850s cool decently enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Not being spoiled being objective. I have stated this month were over due for a lack luster kind of winter I fine with that. A lot of this winter is gone. Places like Cleveland and Chicago haven't even had an Inch of snow! Gaylord 9.8" really? they average 109" a season. They will be lucky to hit 60-70 inches this season. I guarantee you that 70-75% of the Midwest will finish below average on snowfall and there's no guarantee if the cold/frigid air gets locked into the MW in Jan, that there will be a favorable track... Usually benefits the lower Ohio Valley and the NE. BTW: This winter starts dec 21st is all crap for the MW. You know very well that the north woods winter starts after Halloween and along I-80 its around Thanksgiving points after. Luckily places like Detroit and Lansing have done decent to this point. We have a better chance at hitting average this season but a lot of places...WOW what a bad start . BTW: Winnipeg and Edmonton no snow depth... thats nuts are you looking to get banned? This type of talk is no longer aloud(allowed SP) here. If the ruling party sees this you will be mocked,ridiculed and considered irrelevant. Please retract. Personally, my yard is getting prepared for a decent ice rink. One more note. It will snow. It always does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 12Z Euro DET TUE 00Z 20-DEC 3.5 0.4 1013 96 100 0.11 558 547 TUE 06Z 20-DEC 2.0 -1.7 1013 99 99 0.41 556 545 TUE 12Z 20-DEC 0.9 -2.8 1012 99 97 0.30 553 544 TUE 18Z 20-DEC 1.3 -1.7 1007 99 99 0.18 543 538 WED 00Z 21-DEC 0.8 -2.4 1006 98 68 0.15 541 536 ORD TUE 06Z 20-DEC 1.2 -2.4 1012 99 100 0.50 554 544 TUE 12Z 20-DEC 1.9 -3.0 1008 96 99 0.17 545 539 TUE 18Z 20-DEC 1.5 -4.4 1008 97 95 0.17 540 534 WED 00Z 21-DEC 0.6 -6.4 1013 85 75 0.03 544 534 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 12Z Euro DET TUE 00Z 20-DEC 3.5 0.4 1013 96 100 0.11 558 547 TUE 06Z 20-DEC 2.0 -1.7 1013 99 99 0.41 556 545 TUE 12Z 20-DEC 0.9 -2.8 1012 99 97 0.30 553 544 TUE 18Z 20-DEC 1.3 -1.7 1007 99 99 0.18 543 538 WED 00Z 21-DEC 0.8 -2.4 1006 98 68 0.15 541 536 ORD TUE 06Z 20-DEC 1.2 -2.4 1012 99 100 0.50 554 544 TUE 12Z 20-DEC 1.9 -3.0 1008 96 99 0.17 545 539 TUE 18Z 20-DEC 1.5 -4.4 1008 97 95 0.17 540 534 WED 00Z 21-DEC 0.6 -6.4 1013 85 75 0.03 544 534 Better then 00z! Back to the southern solution, which is a good sign.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 12z Euro gives ARR .80" liquid overnight mon/tues am with 850's between -2 and -5, sfc temps 33/34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I like the latest Euro, as should many in the Southern Lakes. I know, however, that even the Euro will probably bounce around several times in the next several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 euro is a nice cold rain IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 John Dee is actually favoring a southern track.. Not to often he does that so it's prob a congrats, International Falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 12Z Euro DET TUE 00Z 20-DEC 3.5 0.4 1013 96 100 0.11 558 547 TUE 06Z 20-DEC 2.0 -1.7 1013 99 99 0.41 556 545 TUE 12Z 20-DEC 0.9 -2.8 1012 99 97 0.30 553 544 TUE 18Z 20-DEC 1.3 -1.7 1007 99 99 0.18 543 538 WED 00Z 21-DEC 0.8 -2.4 1006 98 68 0.15 541 536 ORD TUE 06Z 20-DEC 1.2 -2.4 1012 99 100 0.50 554 544 TUE 12Z 20-DEC 1.9 -3.0 1008 96 99 0.17 545 539 TUE 18Z 20-DEC 1.5 -4.4 1008 97 95 0.17 540 534 WED 00Z 21-DEC 0.6 -6.4 1013 85 75 0.03 544 534 I don't even know why I'm asking, but how's YYZ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 New Euro looks like a wet snow for the the WI/IL border area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 YYZ TUE 06Z 20-DEC 2.1 -2.4 1012 95 95 0.06 552 542 TUE 12Z 20-DEC 1.7 -3.8 1014 94 97 0.10 551 540 TUE 18Z 20-DEC 2.0 -4.3 1010 90 97 0.05 547 539 WED 00Z 21-DEC 1.0 -3.6 1006 97 94 0.28 539 534 WED 06Z 21-DEC 0.2 -3.9 1006 94 74 0.08 540 535 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 YYZ TUE 06Z 20-DEC 2.1 -2.4 1012 95 95 0.06 552 542 TUE 12Z 20-DEC 1.7 -3.8 1014 94 97 0.10 551 540 TUE 18Z 20-DEC 2.0 -4.3 1010 90 97 0.05 547 539 WED 00Z 21-DEC 1.0 -3.6 1006 97 94 0.28 539 534 WED 06Z 21-DEC 0.2 -3.9 1006 94 74 0.08 540 535 Thanks. Does the EURO have a BL warm bias? lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Verbatim the Euro would be a cold rain for northern Illinois until close to 12z Tuesday. Maybe an inch or two of wet snow after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 John Dee is actually favoring a southern track.. Not to often he does that so it's prob a congrats, International Falls. yeah I agree 'ol Johnny usually likes to give northern areas the accumulations, he's busted a few times in the past and he flip flops with his forecasts too so I guess we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Verbatim the Euro would be a cold rain for northern Illinois until close to 12z Tuesday. Maybe an inch or two of wet snow after that. yep, rain storm. There is no cold air to play with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Latest Euro drops several inches across southeastern Iowa(just using the wunderground Euro snowfall maps), but with the models going back and forth it's too early to get excited. Maybe in a couple days we'll have a better idea of how the southwestern low will interact with the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 yep, rain storm. There is no cold air to play with. The Euro would be an excellent track for northern Illinois if there was more cold air available. It would be kind of sad to waste a good track like this on a 90/10 rain/snow event. It's the way it goes I guess lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 yep, rain storm. There is no cold air to play with. 100+ story's up in the Willis Tower is the place to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Latest Euro drops several inches across southeastern Iowa(just using the wunderground Euro snowfall maps), but with the models going back and forth it's too early to get excited. Maybe in a couple days we'll have a better idea of how the southwestern low will interact with the northern stream. I agree with you, its just too early to get excited about anything, flip flopping will most likely continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Thanks. Does the EURO have a BL warm bias? lol. Sucks that we can only see 2 levels on the Euro (2m and 850 mb) but the 850 mb temps don't look bad. Your problem in that scenario may be mostly light precip which could fail to cool the low levels enough to allow for optimal sticking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 12Z UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 12Z UKMET Don't have to see any thermal plots to know that ain't good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Sucks that we can only see 2 levels on the Euro (2m and 850 mb) but the 850 mb temps don't look bad. Your problem in that scenario may be mostly light precip which could fail to cool the low levels enough to allow for optimal sticking. My bigger problem is that it's a D7 prog and the pattern overall is reindeer shiite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 yep, rain storm. There is no cold air to play with. I'd argue its snow on this run, 850's aren't bad, very shallow warm layer but not that bad here. 33/34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Don't have to see any thermal plots to know that ain't good. Looking at the low pressure center and 540 line no way do any of us see snow. That thing is all the way up towards Sasketchewan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Keep in mind those are height contours. Looking at the low pressure center and 540 line no way do any of us see snow. That thing is all the way up towards Sasketchewan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I'd argue its snow on this run, 850's aren't bad, very shallow warm layer but not that bad here. 33/34. Thicknesses stay well above 540 through much of the event. Between that and the marginal boundary layer conditions I'd tend to lean towards rain. It'd be nice to look at soundings though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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