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Late November/Early December disco on the upcoming pattern


CoastalWx

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They are pretty decent actually. They actually reintensify the -EPO a little bit around Dec 11 and then it relaxes after that. But the whole time we have above avg heights in the PNA region of W Canada. We start getting more troughing the SW US as time goes on which promotes more of a gradient pattern as it tries to pump the SE ridge a bit which is in opposition to the Canadian +PNA that is driving cold air southward.

A day late but hopefully not a dollar short. All going according to plan IMHO.

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Well the EPO actually goes negative before that...it just gets re-enhanced on Dec 11 on the ensembles. It looks like a good AK ridge around Dec 7-8 initially.

I'd like to think the euro is applying that bias across the southwest, but I'm not so sure the ensembles exhibit this bias. Even a cross between the GFS and Euro would be nice as the GFS tries to keep heights lower over the northeast.

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You can always hope for a wave to develop along the front, but those features aren't the best to rely on.

I doubt anything good happens with that. It seems to be before we get a real change in the pattern. We get a WC ridge but its not coinciding with any type of mechanism to keep heights lower here...its positively tilted too which only pumps up the heights. Maybe we luck out with an anafrontal deal, but I think we just end up seeing a lakes cutter out of it.

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If the euro op is right, then maybe we can hope some of those s/ws riding south from the Canadian prairies can do something along the east coast. The amplitude of the ridge in the GOA may allow them to try and dig. They might only be able to dig so much if the se ridge pumps up, so we'll have to see how it goes.

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I doubt anything good happens with that. It seems to be before we get a real change in the pattern. We get a WC ridge but its not coinciding with any type of mechanism to keep heights lower here...its positively tilted too which only pumps up the heights. Maybe we luck out with an anafrontal deal, but I think we just end up seeing a lakes cutter out of it.

I agree. You can hope the trough is sharp enough for rain to snow type deal, but that's certainly not a good thing to hang your hat on.

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Perfect pattern honestly at this point IMHO. We had this trashy awful pattern in Oct/Nov and got it out of the way. Much better than having it in Dec/jan or jan/feb. And with hints of pattern change around 12/10.... perfecto.

Not to mention this trashy awful pattern gave most of New England between 10" and 30" to start the season :lol:

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there are some similarities between the upcoming pattern and dec 07. not a deadringer comparison but some similar features in play.

another positive to consider - what was a remarkably strong vortex in the GOA the better part of the last 15 days is being replaced by a strong + anomaly by day 10-ish. just as it's hard to eradicate a big death vortex, that ridge should have some staying power.

and of course, #1 analog at day 11 today is 12/24/04. lock it.

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there are some similarities between the upcoming pattern and dec 07. not a deadringer comparison but some similar features in play.

another positive to consider - what was a remarkably strong vortex in the GOA the better part of the last 15 days is being replaced by a strong + anomaly by day 10-ish. just as it's hard to eradicate a big death vortex, that ridge should have some staying power.

and of course, #1 analog at day 11 today is 12/24/04. lock it.

Some of the models really dive the energy south and develop a coastal at that time.

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