Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Too bad we have zero blocking. Otherwise, we'd be talking about snow for next week. Alas, it'll likely be showers and 50F. Yeah definitely heading to seasonal though which will be nice. I mean I'm all for this nice stretch we've had but it's outlived it's usefulness. Ski resorts need cold as dollars are melting away, I want to skate on the ponds and I'm tired of killing moths. Only out to 12/4 on my screen, little pulse coming across the high plains and something stirring in the gulf but that cold air...keeps peaking down in some runs only to vanish and get pushed off into latter days on the runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Lol at the shortwave taking the express down the ridge on the west coast at 162 hours. http://www.meteo.psu...AVN_0z/f162.gif That's a guy on a mission right there This run should be interesting. We have the leading edge of the trough reaching New England before the couple of disturbances out west, which means we get into the cold air, with ridging shoved southeast, before these shortwaves can pump it all up into the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 .... there are no changes with respect to the impressiveness of the cold. If anything the 00z GFS is looking much better than the runs earlier today Through the realm of reasonable - about 12/5 it's not what I'd call impressive or cold. It's warmer than the last run at 12z. The threat in the 12/6-12/8 is still very real however and we'll need to make that pay off as the 12/3 is out the window it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 We got something interesting coming down post 168 in MN. Could tap into that southern energy. At H5, you can see how they are still separate. Northern impulse potent and coming down quick though. Will have to be a thread the needle solution for us though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Through the realm of reasonable - about 12/5 it's not what I'd call impressive or cold. It's warmer than the last run at 12z. The threat in the 12/6-12/8 is still very real however and we'll need to make that pay off as the 12/3 is out the window it seems. show me one post where someone was calling for impressive cold prior to 12/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 show me one post where someone was calling for impressive cold prior to 12/5 You knew the model was only out until 12/5...what'd you think we were talking about January? This looks nice, but the cold shot is still going to be transient. To be honest I don't care, I think that's the way most of the winter is going to be... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 You knew the model was only out until 12/5...what'd you think we were talking about January? This looks nice, but the cold shot is still going to be transient. To be honest I don't care, I think that's the way most of the winter is going to be... GFS looks good through day 9. This run is so close to produce something for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 GFS pretty interesting 180-204 time frame that would be perfect if we could manage some kind of storm then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 You knew the model was only out until 12/5...what'd you think we were talking about January? This looks nice, but the cold shot is still going to be transient. To be honest I don't care, I think that's the way most of the winter is going to be... I had no idea what you were talking about lol. That's why the "..." I'm looking at the medium term -- everything is past day 7, but it's there, and looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 For the northeast weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Op GFS is a heaping pile of dung in the LR.. quickly breaks down the PNA and EPO ridge. Even worse than the op runs earlier. Good thing the ensembles haven't supported it all day. Hopefully the ensembles keep holding onto that ridging. But what a disaster this would be after our +4 November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 I had no idea what you were talking about lol. That's why the "..." I'm looking at the medium term -- everything is past day 7, but it's there, and looking good Part of this is that we have the cold misers that were telling us it was going to be below normal this week/end of the week. That's all I was saying...remember not long ago the GFS had a pretty good cold shot coming down in a few days (roughly) that's gradually gotten less impressive. I think with this particular model we're seeing the first solid signs at 0z that it's grasping the gradient pattern with some opportunities. Amazing to watch how fast the cold air blows out each time - we haven't seen that in 3 years with all the blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 We'll have chances. Hard to ask for more with a climo max still 40+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Op GFS is a heaping pile of dung in the LR.. quickly breaks down the PNA and EPO ridge. Even worse than the op runs earlier. Good thing the ensembles haven't supported it all day. Hopefully the ensembles keep holding onto that ridging. And wxforecaster was all over me I think part of it is I don't really care and have no vested position in this. I'll look forward to two dinners on weatherfella's dime in January though. I think we should take cues from Will and some others that have said little but when they do it's on point which is enjoy the nice weather. I think after the 12/6-12-8 threat we moderate again, then we have the storm I was talking about wanting to be in MI or WI for, then maybe we see the front slide enough east that we have some type of shot towards the 13-16th but honestly that's 2-3 weeks away and if I had to bet, those threats end warm too. Boston is 55 degrees at 1150pm on 11/27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 I would argue that the initial pattern change is the abilIty to wax and wane on the AK low and ridge placement. Where it goes from there is in question. If the vortex comes back and sits for weeks th ts a bad sign. But conversely, the deck chairs globally may be surf ing and we could have a very favorable winter pattern by 12/25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 I would argue that the initial pattern change is the abilIty to wax and wane on the AK low and ridge placement. Where it goes from there is in question. If the vortex comes back and sits for weeks th ts a bad sign. But conversely, the deck chairs globally may be surf ing and we could have a very favorable winter pattern by 12/25. Only snowballs we'll be seeing around here will be on a tray. Beyond that some real nice cold air coming down, should setup the western lakes nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Only snowballs we'll be seeing around here will be on a Beyond that some real nice cold air coming down, should setup the western lakes nicely. We'll see. We struggled in December snow wise last year until 12/26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Ensembles very interesting 180-192.. some widespread .25"+ on the mean so must be some of them with a decent storm then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Ensembles very interesting 180-192.. some widespread .25"+ on the mean so must be some of them with a decent storm then. Yeah can see it here, looks like it's gone up into the maritimes by 192. Can see the warm pinch coming in off BC too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Pinched by 240 or so and here's the gradient pattern. Would look like the lows go too far west for our liking to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Once again the ensembles are better vs op. I'm guessing many discordant solutions which renders the entire run low confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Pinched by 240 or so and here's the gradient pattern. Would look like the lows go too far west for our liking to start. Thats some serious cold in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 D10+ ensemble mean still a world of difference from the op, as it has been all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Ensemble mean has 528 thickness cruising down to the pike on 18z 12/10......the start of my 15 day to take hold pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Thats some serious cold in Canada. EPAC high pressure is east a good bit this run. Better position for us. Still going to be tough though, such a weird pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 EPAC high pressure is east a good bit this run. Better position for us. Still going to be tough though, such a weird pattern. Yes. This is a nice run but low confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Yes. This is a nice run but low confidence. Honestly I still wouldn't call it nice but that's just me. I see the cold air is already blunted after about D13 which has been advertised by most of the models. By 12/13 - and it looks like there's some opportunity just prior to that date. OP and ENS both are hinting at something around 11-12th that might be colder.....we're screwed again after that. Questions is just for how long. Hopefully the periods are shortening and it's a few days cold, few days warm, and hopefully we can cash in. EDIT: on closer look I think the GFS ENS at the ridiculous range is ugly. But again...JMHO Again JMHO. My views are my own personal opinions and do not reflect the views of Heat Miser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Honestly I still wouldn't call it nice but that's just me. I see the cold air is already blunted after about D13 which has been advertised by most of the models. By 12/13 - and it looks like there's some opportunity just prior to that date. OP and ENS both are hinting at something around 11-12th that might be colder.....we're screwed again after that. Questions is just for how long. Hopefully the periods are shortening and it's a few days cold, few days warm, and hopefully we can cash in. EDIT: on closer look I think the GFS ENS at the ridiculous range is ugly. But again...JMHO Again JMHO. My views are my own personal opinions and do not reflect the views of Heat Miser ™ We should all just find a new hobby because it doesn't look to snow again for a couple of months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 We should all just find a new hobby because it doesn't look to snow again for a couple of months. Probably should just wait until 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Keeping with the theme of storms striking just prior to holidays, 06z GFS says hello to the Pearl Harbor Day Eve storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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